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KPLC - Great results 2010
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VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 6:59:05 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
KPLC announced an interim EPS of 23.67 which is very impressive. And it expects a similar performance for 2H.

I stand by by initial price target of 200/- by 31 Dec 2011.

I expected a good performance based on the information in the Annual Report but this is even better than what I thought it would be.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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TUPAC
#2 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 8:09:06 AM
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This is the super bluechip co. of the future. With this kind of growth then the future of the company is great especially after the impending restructuring.
...things fall apart...the centre cannot hold..mere anarchy is loosed upon the world...w b yeats
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guru267
#3 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 8:47:58 AM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
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Laughing out loudly Applause Laughing out loudly Applause Laughing out loudly Applause Laughing out loudly Applause Laughing out loudly Applause Laughing out loudly Applause

the day cant get any better than this especially with the other companies' results i did not expect this at all...

was there any talk about the restructuring????
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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kishindo
#4 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:00:02 AM
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some people bought the stock @172 this morning...well its now back to 156! somebody has been whipped...lakini still very good going forward.
Less is more....for Architects only!!
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VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:11:10 AM
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Location: Nairobi
@tupac - The growth in profits will moderate after 2010 but still very cheap at this price. Ultimately, there are 2 constraints for KPLC
1) Supply (which they have mitigated by engaging with thermal power producers but cost remains a huge concern)
2) Growth in the economy

@guru - The capital structure will be restructured to enable KPLC borrow more from multi-lateral government agencies...

@kishindo - At current prices @156, it remains very cheap... even after you discount the 'restructuring'... even cheap @ 172!!!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#6 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:15:22 AM
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@VVS i know about what the restructuring will help them acieve but have you got any specifics...

like the rights issue price, dates, etc???????
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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guru267
#7 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 11:29:22 AM
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i cant believe someone just sold their 1100 KPLC shares at 151...
dont people recognise value when it slaps them in the face like KPLC is doing??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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guru267
#8 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 11:31:04 AM
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i cant believe someone just sold their 1100 KPLC shares at 151 bob...
dont people recognise value when it slaps them in the face like KPLC is doing??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 11:56:44 AM
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guru267 wrote:
@VVS i know about what the restructuring will help them acieve but have you got any specifics...

like the rights issue price, dates, etc???????

Unknown at the moment but I have provided some guidance in earlier posts. Please search for them.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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sheep
#10 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 11:56:59 AM
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Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
The spurt of growth will flat-line faster than most people think...why on earth are KPLC guyz running around distributing energy saving bulbs? I thought the more elec consumed the more they will increase profits...or wait,maybe they know they have no capacity to meet demand in the near future and their sister Kengen embezzling billions building micro generating plants producing 15,20,and so MW not enough to even power cement plants.They should concentrate on building 1000mw+ and stop giving projections all the time...this two companies are screwing the Kenyan economy.Funny I own KPLC stock.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 12:21:29 PM
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@sheep - You sound confused... I could not make much of the earlier comment/s except for the first bit...

YES, the rate of unit sales growth will slow down over time... and eventually so will growth in profits... but I think they will manage 5%+ per year as long as there is enough supply...

It makes sense to reduce use in this day & age... KPLC has a supply problem (i.e. they can't get enough to sell) not a demand problem (there are plenty of new consumers)...

KPLC says they hooked up 100,000+ new customers in 6 months... and expect another 100,000 in 2H...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#12 Posted : Saturday, February 27, 2010 11:28:17 AM
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@sheep i dont think profits will flatten any time soon...

the fall in power supply from kengen wont last forever and is only going to expand in coming years,industrial demand which fell due to the economic downturn and PEV will pick up as the economy grows,companies like pan paper are being revived, KPLC is weeding out vandalism, its increasing efficiency in payment of bills, it has a tariff review in 2013, and its trying to diversify its revenue streams..

given all this what exactly will cause future profits to flatten out??? i,m a huge bull on this stock for market out performance...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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sparkly
#13 Posted : Sunday, February 28, 2010 7:31:59 AM
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Kengen holds the fate of kenya's industrialization dreams. Expensive and unreliable power is No. 1 factor why doing business in kenya is too expensive. To the extent that consumers generate their own power and sell to kplc - MSC, ARM, Finlays, Unilever etc GOK must take quick action, as with the EAC Kenya is poised to become the regional manufacturing hub.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Monday, March 01, 2010 12:34:18 PM
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Electricity production is complex even without the corruption that characterizes Kenya's energy industry...

Add the layers of corruption present in Kenya & the whole 'energy' question get really crazy...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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jguru
#15 Posted : Tuesday, March 02, 2010 9:22:31 AM
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The only way to solve Kenya's power problems is to remove this bureacratic protection of KenGen. Hydro Electricity is out. Wind, Solar and Gas is the way to go. Then, finally, KPLC can have MWs to sell.
Set out to correct the world's wrongs and you will most certainly wind up adding to them.
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VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Tuesday, March 02, 2010 9:36:29 AM
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Well... Kenya cannot expand hydro much more except for better turbines & new (smaller) dams along the existing rivers BUT overall Kenya is NOT blessed with huge rivers like Zambia/Zimbabwe or Uganda...

What Kenya is blessed with is awesome GEOTHERMAL... yes, that is the future of Kenya...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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wote
#17 Posted : Tuesday, March 02, 2010 9:57:07 AM
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Huge profits extracted from poor kenyan no difference from people taking money from G4S.Both morally wrong, they should consider lowering cost of power to Kenyans which by world standard are excessively high.
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VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Tuesday, March 02, 2010 10:17:42 AM
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Location: Nairobi
@wote - Nonsense... The ROA for KPLC remains low due to a cap on electricity charges...

1) KPLC charges a fraction of the total bill or cost of power... the largest portion on our bills is from the thermal/diesel portion...

2) Don't forget that KPLC buys 50% from KenGen... Mumias is paid a hefty premium over hydro... Why not tell Mumias to reduce the price?

3) DIRECT TAXES... yes, u complain about KPLC which has to act as a collector for VAT & excise duties on behalf of KRA...

4)INDIRECT TAXES... These are levied through charges (VAT, customs & excise) on various goods KPLC consumes e.g. poles, transformers, etc

5) Theft... Yes, Kenyans love 'free' thus the rest of us have to bear the cost. If GoK, police & wanjiku stopped the thieves then KPLC would save KES 300mn/month... which can be passed on as savings...

Blaming the current KPLC for the high prices is like blaming KQ for the lousy JKIA airport with faulty runway lights!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Tuesday, March 02, 2010 8:36:35 PM
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Kenyan thieves risk the lives of innocents

http://www.standardmedia...0004652&cid=459&
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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sheep
#20 Posted : Wednesday, March 03, 2010 7:56:45 AM
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Electricity sales increased by only 4.8%,foreign exchange surcharge by a phenomenal 2,172%.The operating margin is 8.4% at least better than KQ's 5%.After Gova sells 87% of its preference shares things might not be so rosy,why is Gova bailing out? If they believed in KPLC's future growth they wouldn't sell.Wise to sell just before restructuring fiasco.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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