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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Boris Boyka wrote:Cfc bank @107. Seems 100 could be broken. Is it still trading cum-Div ?
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Gatheuzi wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:The bear is at hand guys. Unfortunately many will not 'see' it come until they are consumed by it!  Assuming wave (4) is complete (evidence suggests it is ) then we can target the termination of wave (5). Options: a) Wave (5) being equal to wave (1) then wave (5) terminates at (5100.51-185.8) = 4914.71b) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 0.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(0.618 X 185.8)] = 4985.69c) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 1.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(1.618 X 185.8)] = 4799.89The c option is more likely. I expect lots of volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. In that case an elongated wave (5) would make sense. Also, as I have been saying for sometime, I want a clean break of the NSE 20 Index below 4907 level to increase odds of the bear to almost certainity. Option c would make ensure of that. Summary:Expect huge volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. Watch of 4907 level. Re-evaluate your share holdings in the NSE. The NSE 20 Share Index closes at 4879.95 May, 22nd, And well below our cited previous fourth wave (4907) level.  Index at 4858 on Monday 25th. Closer and closer to scenario c. Index at 4805.  Only 5 points away from option c. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Now you can google [behaviour + following + fifth + wave + extensions + elliott + waves] to know what to expect next. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/1/2007 Posts: 539 Location: Nakuru
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Mnandii you are really enjoying this... Spare a thought for those of us gnashing our teeth For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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winmak wrote:Mnandii you are really enjoying this... Spare a thought for those of us gnashing our teeth Eish yawa! The thing is there is still time to get out of the market. i. e expect a quick upward reversal to about 5000 level soon. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Financials (banks and insurance) stocks will take it in chin when the bear gets rolling. Sharp turn ahead for bulls! Index bounces are now opportunities for fading (get out of jail keys). I'm still waiting for lessons learnt tales to spike as a confirmation that capitulation is peaking up in the market. By year end it'll be interesting. Fat tails season 2 premiers when 4500 support breaks down. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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mnandii wrote:winmak wrote:Mnandii you are really enjoying this... Spare a thought for those of us gnashing our teeth Eish yawa! The thing is there is still time to get out of the market. i. e expect a quick upward reversal to about 5000 level soon. wave B Quote:Aly Khan Satchu, an independent trader and analyst, said the
differing performance by the indices could mean the weeks-long
losing streak at the bourse may be coming to an end.
"There were some green shoots today but we have to see how
it pans out," Satchu said. If that Wave C turns up and subdivides into a five wave pattern I will abandon fundies and concentrate on techies
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/18/2006 Posts: 131
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Noting that the main gainers of late include the likes of eveready, Mumias, FTGH, guess there is reason that the sellout might continue for sometime.
Add to that the MPC meeting which has been brought forward and most people expect a rate hike and some liquidity squeeze which lead to rise in lending rate. Most people may sell to offset loans, invest in Tbills whose rate may rise and FXD deposit rates may also become too attractive to ignore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mnandii - NSE20 ends the week below 4800 and closes @4786. Quite oversold and a bounce is likely. But the way the index has been slicing through support from 5100 to below 4800 means we're just getting started on the sellside! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Not been following the NSE offlate...been very busy but sentiment is very weak....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:@mnandii - NSE20 ends the week below 4800 and closes @4786. Quite oversold and a bounce is likely. But the way the index has been slicing through support from 5100 to below 4800 means we're just getting started on the sellside! Very true @hisah. I expect a quick move back to 5000-5100 levels soon. This is so that the bear trap is set nicely! Eventually we should go below 4000 in the coming months. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mkonomtupu wrote:mnandii wrote:winmak wrote:Mnandii you are really enjoying this... Spare a thought for those of us gnashing our teeth Eish yawa! The thing is there is still time to get out of the market. i. e expect a quick upward reversal to about 5000 level soon. wave B Quote:Aly Khan Satchu, an independent trader and analyst, said the
differing performance by the indices could mean the weeks-long
losing streak at the bourse may be coming to an end.
"There were some green shoots today but we have to see how
it pans out," Satchu said. If that Wave C turns up and subdivides into a five wave pattern I will abandon fundies and concentrate on techies You are welcome aboard! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/30/2012 Posts: 545 Location: NBI
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mnandii what are some good picks to buy and accumulate when bear hits bottom? Want to start keeping an eye on them. BITCOIN TRADERS KENYA Whatsapp group +254 705 299 429
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/30/2012 Posts: 545 Location: NBI
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mnandii wrote:Bitcoin really is useful. Just not in the way you thinkJohn NaughtonQuote:When the banking system went into meltdown in 2008, an intriguing glimpse of an alternative future appeared. On 31 October, an unknown cryptographer who went by the name of Satoshi Nakamoto launched what he described as “a new electronic cash system that’s fully peer to peer, with no trusted third party”. The name he assigned to this new currency was bitcoin.
........because the technology underpinning cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin may turn out to be both transformational and benign in ways that we are just beginning to appreciate.
Why? Well, in essence a blockchain is really a way of using cryptography to certify that a particular token is the property of, or is inextricably connected to, a particular entity. In this particular case, the token is a bitcoin (or part thereof) and the entity is an individual (or an organisation). The blockchain is a dynamic (ie continuously updated) database of who owns (or is connected with) what.
In the real, physical world, we have lots of such databases – think of bank accounts or land registries – but they are records maintained by agencies and organisations, which means that they can be altered, corrupted or lost. So we have to trust the institutions that maintain them, which means trusting outfits like the banks that have just been fined £3.7bn for rigging foreign exchange markets. A blockchain, in contrast, is a public database that is continually maintained and updated by software running on thousands of computers all over the world. And since every change of ownership is publicly logged, the need to trust a (centralised) institution is replaced by the need to trust a highly decentralised network.
The most interesting case I’ve seen so far surfaced the other day when the state of Honduras, one of the poorest countries in Latin America, announced that it was going to use a blockchain to build a permanent and secure land title registry. This is significant because one of the problems that bedevil many – if not most – developing countries is the absence of reliable or uncorrupt land registries.
link  BITCOIN TRADERS KENYA Whatsapp group +254 705 299 429
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/15/2012 Posts: 29 Location: unimportant
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Here's some great news for those who want the stock market to crash ... Read more: http://uk.businessinside...ebt-2015-5#ixzz3bkCT66gFThe Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Thanks for this report.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Quote:Even after adjusting for inflation, margin debt is now higher than it was at the peak of the great bull market in 2000 and the echo bull market in 2007. Check you charts. In 2000 the market crashed. In 2007 when margin debt became higher than the 2000 level, the market crashed more. Now, in 2015, margin debt is much higher than both 2000 and 2007 levels! Expect a bigger crash.  In a bull market, the growth of margin debt serves as a turbocharger that helps drive stock prices higher. 
It has already driven the market higher! When stock prices drop, which, eventually, they always do, borrowing capacity shrinks. And traders who maxed out their borrowing capacity are forced to sell stocks to meet "margin calls." That selling often puts further pressure on stock prices, which then triggers more margin calls. And so on. So you get the same "turbocharging" effect on the downside, which is one reason stock-market crashes can be so violent. At some point — no one knows when — stocks will get hit. When they get hit, some of those who have borrowed money to buy them will have to come up with more cash to keep them, or they will be forced to sell them. This forced selling will likely accelerate the downward move in prices. And that will trigger further margin calls and more forced sales. And so on. So don't be surprised if the next correction seems more sudden and violent than observable fundamentals might suggest it should be. Pls bro, I hope you did not derive comfort in the title. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Foreign investors pull out 5B from NSE.When kestrel is in the mix this is serious... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mic_mic wrote:mnandii
what are some good picks to buy and accumulate when bear hits bottom? Want to start keeping an eye on them. It's hard to say presently. When the index starts the third wave down move, I expect all stocks to follow with it. The best way to analyse individual stocks is to analyse their Elliott structure. But many stocks in the NSE do not have clear Elliott wave patterns. Anyway, of more importance. I expect many stocks to fall 90% and some will go to zero. The degree of the correction coming is quite huge. At the point when it will be best to buy, no one will want to touch a stock with a 10 foot pole!  That should be around 2016. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:mic_mic wrote:mnandii
what are some good picks to buy and accumulate when bear hits bottom? Want to start keeping an eye on them. It's hard to say presently. When the index starts the third wave down move, I expect all stocks to follow with it. The best way to analyse individual stocks is to analyse their Elliott structure. But many stocks in the NSE do not have clear Elliott wave patterns. Anyway, of more importance. I expect many stocks to fall 90% and some will go to zero. The degree of the correction coming is quite huge. At the point when it will be best to buy, no one will want to touch a stock with a 10 foot pole! That should be around 2016. Generally, stocks with good financial position should fare better. Financial stocks eg banks and insurance will fare worse. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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