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USD/KES $ at 95
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#91 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2015 11:20:27 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Great discussion going on right here.
@Jerry,your answer is in what @kizee1 has just said. One word...illiquidity.
USDKES bulls better watch out. You will have no option but to release those USDs smile
@SufficientlyP
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hisah
#92 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2015 1:18:50 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kizee1 wrote:
intervening thru voice brokers they had banned two weeks ago lol

anyway cbk is hell bent on saving the kes at the expense of the economy, note overnite rates are as high as 14pct,

kenyans face two realities 1. a weak currency and a moderately performing economy or 2. a strongish currency and a recession

if cb keep tightening short end thru TADs and FX interventions, short term rates will tick up and the yield curve will invert,( what does this point to class?)

Whoa! Has the yield curve started inverting? This is worse than I thought!! Btw CBK removed the yield curve tracker from their site back in 2011 when KES was facing similar conditions. Though this time inflation spike is absent. A recession is on the cards which is much better than stagflation. Stagflation would cause nasty econ damage than a recession in terms of job cuts/biz defaults/closure while servicing a huge foreign debt bill.

If the yield curve has indeed started to invert equities will deflate sharply. Mr market will be in a negative mood for a while.

@aguy I foresee fat tails season 2 coming back going by @kizee1 opinions.

@spt I dont think cbk can stall the $ rally with the current mechanics. It may work for a short term, but econ fundies can't sustain it.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, May 29, 2015 1:20 PM | Reason: Not specified
Sober
#93 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2015 1:29:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
dunkang wrote:
CBK should just give up chasing this dollar. A look at other currencies shows that most of them are just suffering like KES against the dollar.

True
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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hisah
#94 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2015 2:38:48 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@kizee I forgot to ask about M3. How are the statistics?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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kizee1
#95 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2015 3:20:31 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
@kizee I forgot to ask about M3. How are the statistics?


in the period 2014 to 2015 oscillated between kes 2.1 and 2.3 trn I only have stats upto march 2015 and there was a slight decline from the month of feb
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kizee1
#96 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2015 3:24:31 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
intervening thru voice brokers they had banned two weeks ago lol

anyway cbk is hell bent on saving the kes at the expense of the economy, note overnite rates are as high as 14pct,

kenyans face two realities 1. a weak currency and a moderately performing economy or 2. a strongish currency and a recession

if cb keep tightening short end thru TADs and FX interventions, short term rates will tick up and the yield curve will invert,( what does this point to class?)

Whoa! Has the yield curve started inverting? This is worse than I thought!! Btw CBK removed the yield curve tracker from their site back in 2011 when KES was facing similar conditions. Though this time inflation spike is absent. A recession is on the cards which is much better than stagflation. Stagflation would cause nasty econ damage than a recession in terms of job cuts/biz defaults/closure while servicing a huge foreign debt bill.

If the yield curve has indeed started to invert equities will deflate sharply. Mr market will be in a negative mood for a while.

@aguy I foresee fat tails season 2 coming back going by @kizee1 opinions.

@spt I dont think cbk can stall the $ rally with the current mechanics. It may work for a short term, but econ fundies can't sustain it.


not yet inverted but I predict it might, cbk is hell bent on keeping this ccy in check and the only short term tool they have is to dry up an illiquid mkt
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Aguytrying
#97 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2015 4:07:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
intervening thru voice brokers they had banned two weeks ago lol

anyway cbk is hell bent on saving the kes at the expense of the economy, note overnite rates are as high as 14pct,

kenyans face two realities 1. a weak currency and a moderately performing economy or 2. a strongish currency and a recession

if cb keep tightening short end thru TADs and FX interventions, short term rates will tick up and the yield curve will invert,( what does this point to class?)

Whoa! Has the yield curve started inverting? This is worse than I thought!! Btw CBK removed the yield curve tracker from their site back in 2011 when KES was facing similar conditions. Though this time inflation spike is absent. A recession is on the cards which is much better than stagflation. Stagflation would cause nasty econ damage than a recession in terms of job cuts/biz defaults/closure while servicing a huge foreign debt bill.

If the yield curve has indeed started to invert equities will deflate sharply. Mr market will be in a negative mood for a while.

@aguy I foresee fat tails season 2 coming back going by @kizee1 opinions.

@spt I dont think cbk can stall the $ rally with the current mechanics. It may work for a short term, but econ fundies can't sustain it.


smile The way i enjoyed season 1, im grabbing my popcorn for this one. This time ill hang on to the Big five and others, thats where the joy will come from.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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hisah
#98 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2015 5:29:25 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kizee1 wrote:
hisah wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
intervening thru voice brokers they had banned two weeks ago lol

anyway cbk is hell bent on saving the kes at the expense of the economy, note overnite rates are as high as 14pct,

kenyans face two realities 1. a weak currency and a moderately performing economy or 2. a strongish currency and a recession

if cb keep tightening short end thru TADs and FX interventions, short term rates will tick up and the yield curve will invert,( what does this point to class?)

Whoa! Has the yield curve started inverting? This is worse than I thought!! Btw CBK removed the yield curve tracker from their site back in 2011 when KES was facing similar conditions. Though this time inflation spike is absent. A recession is on the cards which is much better than stagflation. Stagflation would cause nasty econ damage than a recession in terms of job cuts/biz defaults/closure while servicing a huge foreign debt bill.

If the yield curve has indeed started to invert equities will deflate sharply. Mr market will be in a negative mood for a while.

@aguy I foresee fat tails season 2 coming back going by @kizee1 opinions.

@spt I dont think cbk can stall the $ rally with the current mechanics. It may work for a short term, but econ fundies can't sustain it.


not yet inverted but I predict it might, cbk is hell bent on keeping this ccy in check and the only short term tool they have is to dry up an illiquid mkt

Thanks for the M3 stats. So CBK has decided to dry a semi desert so that KES can survive!? Good luck. 2015 GDP growth projections should just be revised downwards with a straight face.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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lochaz-index
#99 Posted : Monday, June 22, 2015 6:41:57 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
http://www.businessdaily...2/-/5kiiti/-/index.html

Looks like the 100 mark is inevitable. It might coincide with kq announcing a record loss for a listed nse stock.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, June 22, 2015 6:44 PM | Reason: Not specified
Angelica _ann
#100 Posted : Monday, June 22, 2015 11:06:02 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,936
lochaz-index wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Shilling-weakens-on-energy-sector-dollar-demand/-/539552/2760972/-/5kiiti/-/index.html

Looks like the 100 mark is inevitable. It might coincide with kq announcing a record loss for a listed nse stock.


Cbk will continue selling dollars to contain the slide!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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