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KENGEN RESULTS
sparkly
#11 Posted : Sunday, February 28, 2010 12:43:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
the deal wrote:
@ sparkly my advice is free of charge...whereas for kengen lauch ur arsenal if you are looking long term like you said...but theres one red flag on kengen...they have borrowed to much(bonds,loans)...note also the decline in the EPS...THERES NO HOPE FOR GOOD DIV HERE...LOL.


@thedeal true that the company has borrowed lots of money. Even the 280MW project will be funded by the GOK and International Financial Organisations. The cost of finance for Kengen from these sources is cheaper than equity financing. Being a public utility, consumers of electricity are the ones to bear the finance costs.

As a consumer i only hope that Kengen will see sense to hedge agains't Forex flactuations. The company passed the Forex losses directly to consumers last year.
Life is short. Live passionately.
muganda
#12 Posted : Monday, March 01, 2010 8:15:24 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
@sparkly, realise that your reasons for Kengen also hold true for KPLC with the advantage that KPLC seems to have fewer competitors as compared to Kengen.

Also KPLC is a B2C end-user facing entity. Is it just me or do these businesses seem to have larger impact than backend providers in Kenya?

And then the icing of diversification, what with KPLC leasing fiber and all...


sparkly wrote:
Why?
- Classic Buffet stock.
- Demand for power, specifically cheap power can only go up.
- Investors are still looking short term, while I hold a medium/ Longterm view.
- Even if i am wrong, the fundamentals are OK and there is a chance of a good return, even without the Geothermal project.


Wa_ithaka
#13 Posted : Monday, March 01, 2010 8:26:44 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Although I won't invest in either (well at least until KPLC is free of the heavy GoK hand), right now, I'd take KPLC to KenGen. Although its try to diversify from hydro (the Ngong wind project), I think it'll be a while before KenGen assures of growing profitability and lighter debt burden.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
mkonomtupu
#14 Posted : Monday, March 01, 2010 9:18:21 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Kenya's power sector has a huge potential. 1300MW installed capacity is a big joke by international standards(South Africa 43,000MW). Which serious industry will set up with that kind of capacity.I was actually surprised that the PM was asking Toyota to put up a plant in Kenya.
KENGEN is looking at installed capacity of 2300MW by 2013 and 3000MW by 2018 which is a low target. This is a company that needs serious foreign investment if it has to keep up with demand. I would buy and accumulate kengen for any price below 12.50 (fair value). This is my retirement stock
Gatheuzi
#15 Posted : Monday, March 01, 2010 1:10:39 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
I am not sure why there was negative cashflow from operations. Is it KPLC not paying on time or is KENGEN paying its bills too soon. However the proceeds from Bond issue helped the company make investments including 2.9B in Treasury Bonds!
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
guru267
#16 Posted : Tuesday, March 02, 2010 5:25:48 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@sparkly
why would you invest in kengen as opposed to KPLC??? all future benefits accruing to kengen will multiplied much more to KPLC...

KPLC is a pure monopoly whereas kengen faces steep competition from IPP's who seem to be growing.. but all these IPP's supply to one party KPLC...

KPLC expects to be disributing 10,000MW by 2020 while kengen expects to be producing 4,000MW in the same period...

KPLC will not face higher operating expenses as GOK has set up KETRACO to take up construction of new transmission the lines which KPLC will manage...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mukiha
#17 Posted : Tuesday, March 02, 2010 5:43:02 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
and where does Lake Turkana Wind Power fit into all this?

300MW by end of 2011 [20% of national installed capacity] ....cheaper, and with added benefit of carbon credits....
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
mkonomtupu
#18 Posted : Tuesday, March 02, 2010 7:37:39 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
mukiha wrote:
and where does Lake Turkana Wind Power fit into all this?

300MW by end of 2011 [20% of national installed capacity] ....cheaper, and with added benefit of carbon credits....

Kenya's projected demand is 2000MW by 2014 so 300MW wind power will only meet part of the deficit. The project has to await the construction of the transmission line between Ethiopia and Kenya.

The price movement on Kengen stock is much better than KLPC which is always on average stuck at Kshs 150. KPLC should consider a share split.
guru267
#19 Posted : Tuesday, March 02, 2010 10:45:40 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mkonomtupu wrote:
KPLC should consider a share split.


@mkonomtupu where have you been or where are you???
in case you dint here KPLC is going to split its shares before the end of june this year...

i think after that you will get to know which one of the two stocks has better price movement...

kengen's fundamentals cannot touch KPLC's
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mkonomtupu
#20 Posted : Tuesday, March 02, 2010 12:29:14 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Guru any idea of the share split ratio. I introduced both Kengen and KPLC during the 2006 IPO in almost equal portions and well kengen has not disappointed. KPLC has solid fundamentals i agree but Kengen offers a lot more excitement in terms of new technology, new power plants, corporate strategy. KPLC telling consumers to use less electricity, allowing government agencies to take up its core mandate looks to me a weak strategy. Analogy Kengen is like the brewer(EABL) and KPLC like a big pub franchise in town. It make more sense to own the brewer.
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