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EAC currencies very bearish. Economy slide coming up.
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hisah
#1 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2015 11:48:27 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Below are the long term charts of the EAC currencies - KES, UGX and TZS. USD vs TZ and UG currencies has already broken out of the long term all time highs resistance last posted in 2011. USDKES is heading there too.

Foreign debt servicing will definitely balloon as the EAC currencies devalue rapidly as per the chart patterns! Current account deficit will be a big headache as the import bill blows up as well as the expected inflation spike.

Brace for impact! This liquidity squeeze will not be funny.

USDKES


USDTZS


USDUGX


If the US Fed hikes the USD funding rate later this year, frontier and emerging market equities will get a rude selloff!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, May 26, 2015 12:16 PM | Reason: Not specified
bartum
#2 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2015 12:16:32 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
will we see 20 share index at 3400 by March 2016
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mkonomtupu
#3 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2015 12:44:55 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@hisah, the dollar might also go through a crisis of confidence. The QE and derivatives are still a ticking time bombs. Its not over until the fat lady sings
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hisah
#4 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2015 2:40:37 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mkonomtupu wrote:
@hisah, the dollar might also go through a crisis of confidence. The QE and derivatives are still a ticking time bombs. Its not over until the fat lady sings

Yes it will. But for now the market is still bullish USD and besides the eurozone confidence doesn't look good.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#5 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2015 2:49:05 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Btw how many KE banks and insurance firms have expanded in EAC? With the EAC econs headed for a slump those earnings will be crimped whichever way...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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kizee1
#6 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2015 10:53:28 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
and unlike 2011, hiking rates will NOT solve the problem, with the economy already on its knees this is a null option, i fear CBK will pull a very dumb move when the ish hits the fan
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mnandii
#7 Posted : Wednesday, May 27, 2015 11:00:09 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
Btw how many KE banks and insurance firms have expanded in EAC? With the EAC econs headed for a slump those earnings will be crimped whichever way...

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#8 Posted : Wednesday, May 27, 2015 11:08:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
hisah wrote:
Btw how many KE banks and insurance firms have expanded in EAC? With the EAC econs headed for a slump those earnings will be crimped whichever way...



Important...
Banks and Insurance firms...
These are financial institutions...
They fare the worst in a deflationary environment...

Sad
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#9 Posted : Tuesday, June 09, 2015 6:29:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
cbr up 150basis points.
NSE bulls be forewarned.
@SufficientlyP
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Bachuma Gate
#10 Posted : Tuesday, June 09, 2015 6:41:07 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 280
money will head to money market
DOH
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