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My Picks for 2015
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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KNRE & KPLC are great value stocks but they are likely stagnate at those prices for as long as the bear beckons. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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Currently, my holdings are as follows: Unga B.P = 43.25 Current Price = 45.50 Kenya Re B.P = 18.60 Current Price = 16.50 KPLC B.P = 18.35 Current Price = 16.35 My portfolio has seen negative growth for the last two months. Since the bear is squarely in the driver's seat, I will hold and accumulate cash as I await for better discounts towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. I expect negative growth in my current portfolio for several months. Until then, cash is king. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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I love the safaricom fall. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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S.Mutaga III wrote:Currently, my holdings are as follows:
Unga B.P = 43.25 Current Price = 45.50
Kenya Re B.P = 18.60 Current Price = 16.50
KPLC B.P = 18.35 Current Price = 16.35
My portfolio has seen negative growth for the last two months. Since the bear is squarely in the driver's seat, I will hold and accumulate cash as I await for better discounts towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. I expect negative growth in my current portfolio for several months. Until then, cash is king. your portfolio has not fallen like the index. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Ericsson wrote:I love the safaricom fall. That phrase " having your cake and eating it". Between now and september we could get the dividend plus a fair price  The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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mlennyma wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Currently, my holdings are as follows:
Unga B.P = 43.25 Current Price = 45.50
Kenya Re B.P = 18.60 Current Price = 16.50
KPLC B.P = 18.35 Current Price = 16.35
My portfolio has seen negative growth for the last two months. Since the bear is squarely in the driver's seat, I will hold and accumulate cash as I await for better discounts towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. I expect negative growth in my current portfolio for several months. Until then, cash is king. your portfolio has not fallen like the index. It has shed about 4% in the last two months. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Currently, my holdings are as follows:
Unga B.P = 43.25 Current Price = 45.50
Kenya Re B.P = 18.60 Current Price = 16.50
KPLC B.P = 18.35 Current Price = 16.35
My portfolio has seen negative growth for the last two months. Since the bear is squarely in the driver's seat, I will hold and accumulate cash as I await for better discounts towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. I expect negative growth in my current portfolio for several months. Until then, cash is king. your portfolio has not fallen like the index. Those 2 gov stocks are a poisonous chalice ( he, ata mi najua kizungu). They will be hit hardest by the bear and will recover slowest with least percentage gain. You know what im saying is true.because it has happened before. just a caution from one wazuan to another. my 2 zim dollars The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Currently, my holdings are as follows:
Unga B.P = 43.25 Current Price = 45.50
Kenya Re B.P = 18.60 Current Price = 16.50
KPLC B.P = 18.35 Current Price = 16.35
My portfolio has seen negative growth for the last two months. Since the bear is squarely in the driver's seat, I will hold and accumulate cash as I await for better discounts towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. I expect negative growth in my current portfolio for several months. Until then, cash is king. your portfolio has not fallen like the index. Those 2 gov stocks are a poisonous chalice ( he, ata mi najua kizungu). They will be hit hardest by the bear and will recover slowest with least percentage gain. You know what im saying is true.because it has happened before. just a caution from one wazuan to another. my 2 zim dollars Thats why I am not touching government stocks again in future. I went against my own principles when buying them. I will just hold on to whatever I have already bought and learn a lesson. I did my homework and they were the best deals in the market at that time, with healthy year on year growth. I think the disadvantage they have is low dividend yields and high government shareholding, otherwise the companies seem to be performing pretty well on paper. The share prices tell a different story. Its the school of life they say A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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S.Mutaga III wrote:mlennyma wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Currently, my holdings are as follows:
Unga B.P = 43.25 Current Price = 45.50
Kenya Re B.P = 18.60 Current Price = 16.50
KPLC B.P = 18.35 Current Price = 16.35
My portfolio has seen negative growth for the last two months. Since the bear is squarely in the driver's seat, I will hold and accumulate cash as I await for better discounts towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. I expect negative growth in my current portfolio for several months. Until then, cash is king. your portfolio has not fallen like the index. It has shed about 4% in the last two months. your pessimism on stocks is coming to pass are you throwing in the towel? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Currently, my holdings are as follows:
Unga B.P = 43.25 Current Price = 45.50
Kenya Re B.P = 18.60 Current Price = 16.50
KPLC B.P = 18.35 Current Price = 16.35
My portfolio has seen negative growth for the last two months. Since the bear is squarely in the driver's seat, I will hold and accumulate cash as I await for better discounts towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. I expect negative growth in my current portfolio for several months. Until then, cash is king. your portfolio has not fallen like the index. Those 2 gov stocks are a poisonous chalice ( he, ata mi najua kizungu). They will be hit hardest by the bear and will recover slowest with least percentage gain. You know what im saying is true.because it has happened before. just a caution from one wazuan to another. my 2 zim dollars Thats why I am not touching government stocks again in future. I went against my own principles when buying them. I will just hold on to whatever I have already bought and learn a lesson. I did my homework and they were the best deals in the market at that time, with healthy year on year growth. I think the disadvantage they have is low dividend yields and high government shareholding, otherwise the companies seem to be performing pretty well on paper. The share prices tell a different story. Its the school of life they say In a bear market you move to utilities so KPLC will hold its ground. Banks fall hardest in a bear. Relax portfolio will be fine
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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mlennyma wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:mlennyma wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Currently, my holdings are as follows:
Unga B.P = 43.25 Current Price = 45.50
Kenya Re B.P = 18.60 Current Price = 16.50
KPLC B.P = 18.35 Current Price = 16.35
My portfolio has seen negative growth for the last two months. Since the bear is squarely in the driver's seat, I will hold and accumulate cash as I await for better discounts towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. I expect negative growth in my current portfolio for several months. Until then, cash is king. your portfolio has not fallen like the index. It has shed about 4% in the last two months. your pessimism on stocks is coming to pass are you throwing in the towel? Lets just say that my investment frenzy is currently on hold. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mkonomtupu wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Currently, my holdings are as follows:
Unga B.P = 43.25 Current Price = 45.50
Kenya Re B.P = 18.60 Current Price = 16.50
KPLC B.P = 18.35 Current Price = 16.35
My portfolio has seen negative growth for the last two months. Since the bear is squarely in the driver's seat, I will hold and accumulate cash as I await for better discounts towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. I expect negative growth in my current portfolio for several months. Until then, cash is king. your portfolio has not fallen like the index. Those 2 gov stocks are a poisonous chalice ( he, ata mi najua kizungu). They will be hit hardest by the bear and will recover slowest with least percentage gain. You know what im saying is true.because it has happened before. just a caution from one wazuan to another. my 2 zim dollars Thats why I am not touching government stocks again in future. I went against my own principles when buying them. I will just hold on to whatever I have already bought and learn a lesson. I did my homework and they were the best deals in the market at that time, with healthy year on year growth. I think the disadvantage they have is low dividend yields and high government shareholding, otherwise the companies seem to be performing pretty well on paper. The share prices tell a different story. Its the school of life they say In a bear market you move to utilities so KPLC will hold its ground. Banks fall hardest in a bear. Relax portfolio will be fine I beg to differ with @aguy, kplc should hold its ground comfortably irrespective of the bear's severity. At 15bob you can accumulate that is if we get there. Kenya re on the other hand tends to track the index albeit on a reduced pace vis a vis the index. A bottom price of 13.5 per share should do the trick in a worst case scenario. Your portfolio should be fine but those with a huge financial holdings might be looking at serious haircuts. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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lochaz-index wrote:mkonomtupu wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Currently, my holdings are as follows:
Unga B.P = 43.25 Current Price = 45.50
Kenya Re B.P = 18.60 Current Price = 16.50
KPLC B.P = 18.35 Current Price = 16.35
My portfolio has seen negative growth for the last two months. Since the bear is squarely in the driver's seat, I will hold and accumulate cash as I await for better discounts towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. I expect negative growth in my current portfolio for several months. Until then, cash is king. your portfolio has not fallen like the index. Those 2 gov stocks are a poisonous chalice ( he, ata mi najua kizungu). They will be hit hardest by the bear and will recover slowest with least percentage gain. You know what im saying is true.because it has happened before. just a caution from one wazuan to another. my 2 zim dollars Thats why I am not touching government stocks again in future. I went against my own principles when buying them. I will just hold on to whatever I have already bought and learn a lesson. I did my homework and they were the best deals in the market at that time, with healthy year on year growth. I think the disadvantage they have is low dividend yields and high government shareholding, otherwise the companies seem to be performing pretty well on paper. The share prices tell a different story. Its the school of life they say In a bear market you move to utilities so KPLC will hold its ground. Banks fall hardest in a bear. Relax portfolio will be fine I beg to differ with @aguy, kplc should hold its ground comfortably irrespective of the bear's severity. At 15bob you can accumulate that is if we get there. Kenya re on the other hand tends to track the index albeit on a reduced pace vis a vis the index. A bottom price of 13.5 per share should do the trick in a worst case scenario. Your portfolio should be fine but those with a huge financial holdings might be looking at serious haircuts. KPLC at 15 will be cheaper than it was in 2011 at 13. In fact, I think KPLC is trading at the cheapest price it has been in ten years when you consider it on a valuation basis. Have a look at this...lowest price in last five years is 12.85. In 2014, the company's profitability increased by 87%. In HY 2015, its profitability increased by 38%. That is why I think even at today's price, KPLC is trading at a cheaper price than in the 2011 bear market A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 977 Location: Kenya
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S.Mutaga III wrote:lochaz-index wrote:mkonomtupu wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Currently, my holdings are as follows:
Unga B.P = 43.25 Current Price = 45.50
Kenya Re B.P = 18.60 Current Price = 16.50
KPLC B.P = 18.35 Current Price = 16.35
My portfolio has seen negative growth for the last two months. Since the bear is squarely in the driver's seat, I will hold and accumulate cash as I await for better discounts towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. I expect negative growth in my current portfolio for several months. Until then, cash is king. your portfolio has not fallen like the index. Those 2 gov stocks are a poisonous chalice ( he, ata mi najua kizungu). They will be hit hardest by the bear and will recover slowest with least percentage gain. You know what im saying is true.because it has happened before. just a caution from one wazuan to another. my 2 zim dollars Thats why I am not touching government stocks again in future. I went against my own principles when buying them. I will just hold on to whatever I have already bought and learn a lesson. I did my homework and they were the best deals in the market at that time, with healthy year on year growth. I think the disadvantage they have is low dividend yields and high government shareholding, otherwise the companies seem to be performing pretty well on paper. The share prices tell a different story. Its the school of life they say In a bear market you move to utilities so KPLC will hold its ground. Banks fall hardest in a bear. Relax portfolio will be fine I beg to differ with @aguy, kplc should hold its ground comfortably irrespective of the bear's severity. At 15bob you can accumulate that is if we get there. Kenya re on the other hand tends to track the index albeit on a reduced pace vis a vis the index. A bottom price of 13.5 per share should do the trick in a worst case scenario. Your portfolio should be fine but those with a huge financial holdings might be looking at serious haircuts. KPLC at 15 will be cheaper than it was in 2011 at 13. In fact, I think KPLC is trading at the cheapest price it has been in ten years when you consider it on a valuation basis. Have a look at this...lowest price in last five years is 12.85. In 2014, the company's profitability increased by 87%. In HY 2015, its profitability increased by 38%. That is why I think even at today's price, KPLC is trading at a cheaper price than in the 2011 bear market KPLC P/E ratio is currently 4.9 that is dirt cheap as compared to Kengen 7.2..... Divident payout ratio finally above 3%, still a buy for me, long term mostly.. will still rather accummulate cash till it goes below 16
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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S.Mutaga III wrote:Currently, my holdings are as follows:
Unga B.P = 43.25 Current Price = 45.50
Kenya Re B.P = 18.60 Current Price = 16.50
KPLC B.P = 18.35 Current Price = 16.35
My portfolio has seen negative growth for the last two months. Since the bear is squarely in the driver's seat, I will hold and accumulate cash as I await for better discounts towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. I expect negative growth in my current portfolio for several months. Until then, cash is king. @Mutaga , if you are complaining? what will i do when i bought Kenya Re in May 2013 at 16.40. That is a full 2 years of zero gains and may have to wait for i do not know how many more years all in the name of long term investing!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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@watesh, if you compute Kengen forward P/E based on the half year EPS of 2.24 then you get ridiculously low P/E. Stay liquid for the rights
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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heri wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Currently, my holdings are as follows:
Unga B.P = 43.25 Current Price = 45.50
Kenya Re B.P = 18.60 Current Price = 16.50
KPLC B.P = 18.35 Current Price = 16.35
My portfolio has seen negative growth for the last two months. Since the bear is squarely in the driver's seat, I will hold and accumulate cash as I await for better discounts towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. I expect negative growth in my current portfolio for several months. Until then, cash is king. @Mutaga , if you are complaining? what will i do when i bought Kenya Re in May 2013 at 16.40. That is a full 2 years of zero gains and may have to wait for i do not know how many more years all in the name of long term investing! That is why I have officially quit being business partners with Uncle Sam. Even where businesses he owns are profitable and have extremely good valuations, the market still doesn't warm up to them. If mine goes sideways for two years, I will just break even and sell. I will have gained (free education on market psychology). A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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mkonomtupu wrote:@watesh, if you compute Kengen forward P/E based on the half year EPS of 2.24 then you get ridiculously low P/E. Stay liquid for the rights indeed "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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After deciding to exit Kenya Re and KPLC, I have been holding only one counter (Unga). I intend to revisit the stock market in the next few weeks and my picks are as follows. Buying Unga Ltd (Ksh 40 per share or below to average down) Buying I & M Bank (Ksh 105 per share or below) Buying Kenol Kobil (Ksh 8.9 or below) TARGET PRICES BY END 2016 Unga Ltd Ksh 65 (62.5% upside) i & M Bank Ksh 170 (61.9% upside) Kenol Kobil Ksh 14 (Kenol Kobil 57.3 % upside) NB: I exited Kenya Re at 0% gain/loss...and exited KPLC with a 13.35% loss. The reasons for exiting these counters were their unpopularity among foreign investors and controlling stakes held by the government. It is my investment policy going forward to NEVER invest in a company where the government has a controlling stake. #Happy Investing# A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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S.Mutaga III wrote:After deciding to exit Kenya Re and KPLC, I have been holding only one counter (Unga). I intend to revisit the stock market in the next few weeks and my picks are as follows.
Buying Unga Ltd (Ksh 40 per share or below to average down)
Buying I & M Bank (Ksh 105 per share or below)
Buying Kenol Kobil (Ksh 8.9 or below)
TARGET PRICES BY END 2016
Unga Ltd Ksh 65 (62.5% upside)
i & M Bank Ksh 170 (61.9% upside)
Kenol Kobil Ksh 14 (Kenol Kobil 57.3 % upside)
NB: I exited Kenya Re at 0% gain/loss...and exited KPLC with a 13.35% loss. The reasons for exiting these counters were their unpopularity among foreign investors and controlling stakes held by the government. It is my investment policy going forward to NEVER invest in a company where the government has a controlling stake.
#Happy Investing# It's my policy too, gava stocks are too risky. Very Good picks, though I think you can get lower prices. Upside is conservative which is good and very likely The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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