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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@hisah. today the red section in the nse has so many shares. blood on the streets... better start fixed income to prepare for the planting season The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Brokers accuse KRA of shifting goal posts on taxAt this rate the market circuit breakers will soon trigger as freefall ensues... The market is in no mood of such sideshows! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/1/2007 Posts: 539 Location: Nakuru
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Sometimes I think these policy makers don't care what their actions have on stability of the market For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/1/2007 Posts: 539 Location: Nakuru
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Sometimes I think these policy makers don't care what consequences their actions have on stability of the market For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,191 Location: nairobi
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winmak wrote:Sometimes I think these policy makers don't care what consequences their actions have on stability of the market some things happen just because of a careless one man.president. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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mlennyma wrote:winmak wrote:Sometimes I think these policy makers don't care what consequences their actions have on stability of the market some things happen just because of a careless one man.president. They say a wise man changes his mind, legislators while pushing for pensions should also remember where the revenue comes from. Now there is lack of clarity as well. This CGT should also be taken back to the drawing board. http://www.businessdaily...0/-/hddad4z/-/index.html
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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The situation in the kitchen room Quote:Government revenue for first nine months of the year fell short of target by a significant Sh93.8 billion, signalling looming funding difficulties. The National Treasury had targeted revenue and grants of Sh874.5 billion, but realised Sh780.7 billion, leaving a gap of Sh93.8 billion. Of the revenue items, the A-I-A had the single-highest shortfall relative to the target at Sh31.6 billion in the nine-month period, bringing in only Sh39.1 billion. The second largest deviation from target was in the grants by donors totalling Sh25.8 billion, below target of Sh45.2 billion meaning less than half of the expected cash was received in the nine month. The third largest shortfall came in the form of pay-as-you-earn taxes, below target of Sh220.5 billion by Sh21.7 billion. For the nine months to March, experts also attribute the low collections to slow economic growth and probable leakages.
How the people in the ivory tower see it Quote:Supplementary Estimates II 2014/2015 Cabinet noted that while Kenya’s economic growth is still resilient, the outcome of the 3rd quarter of the current financial year and the continuation of the global economic stagnation is likely to have a negative impact on the performance of revenues. Cabinet noted that: Revenues had fallen below target and are expected to be lower by Khs.16.6billion mainly due to administration of large income tax payers and customs due to reduced oil imports following increased production of geothermal energy; Domestic borrowing - expectations in decline of interest rates resulted in less appetite for Government securities; and Expenditure pressures – we have received requests for additional funding to cater for emerging priorities related to security operations, forthcoming international conferences and summits, Catholic Nun (Sister Irene) Beatification process, slum upgrading and youth empowerment. To address the challenges above, Cabinet approved additional spending amounting to Ksh.48.3billion under supplementary No. 2 and approved measures to close the financial gap of Kshs.74.3million. CABINET OFFICE NAIROBI 21st May, 2015
What the CBK is doing about it Quote:The weighted average interest rate for banks on the overnight borrowing market shot up to 11.0101 percent on Wednesday from 10.3709 percent the previous day, indicating there was a squeeze on liquidity. The central bank sought to mop up 4 billion shillings from the market on Thursday, reinforcing its desire to cut volatility in the currency market, by pursuing a tightening stance through its open market operations.
What the Certified analysts think of the market Quote:In addition to a price correction, market analysts attribute the drop to a mix of factors, including the capital gains tax and a weaker currency but say market fundamentals remain strong. They rule out chances of a prolonged bear run. “Some stocks may have been overpriced, but this does not mean that the companies themselves are having any problems,” said Standard Investment Bank (SIB) analyst Eric Musau.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mkonomtupu wrote:The situation in the kitchen room Quote:Government revenue for first nine months of the year fell short of target by a significant Sh93.8 billion, signalling looming funding difficulties. The National Treasury had targeted revenue and grants of Sh874.5 billion, but realised Sh780.7 billion, leaving a gap of Sh93.8 billion. Of the revenue items, the A-I-A had the single-highest shortfall relative to the target at Sh31.6 billion in the nine-month period, bringing in only Sh39.1 billion. The second largest deviation from target was in the grants by donors totalling Sh25.8 billion, below target of Sh45.2 billion meaning less than half of the expected cash was received in the nine month. The third largest shortfall came in the form of pay-as-you-earn taxes, below target of Sh220.5 billion by Sh21.7 billion. For the nine months to March, experts also attribute the low collections to slow economic growth and probable leakages.
How the people in the ivory tower see it Quote:Supplementary Estimates II 2014/2015 Cabinet noted that while Kenya’s economic growth is still resilient, the outcome of the 3rd quarter of the current financial year and the continuation of the global economic stagnation is likely to have a negative impact on the performance of revenues. Cabinet noted that: Revenues had fallen below target and are expected to be lower by Khs.16.6billion mainly due to administration of large income tax payers and customs due to reduced oil imports following increased production of geothermal energy; Domestic borrowing - expectations in decline of interest rates resulted in less appetite for Government securities; and Expenditure pressures – we have received requests for additional funding to cater for emerging priorities related to security operations, forthcoming international conferences and summits, Catholic Nun (Sister Irene) Beatification process, slum upgrading and youth empowerment. To address the challenges above, Cabinet approved additional spending amounting to Ksh.48.3billion under supplementary No. 2 and approved measures to close the financial gap of Kshs.74.3million. CABINET OFFICE NAIROBI 21st May, 2015
What the CBK is doing about it Quote:The weighted average interest rate for banks on the overnight borrowing market shot up to 11.0101 percent on Wednesday from 10.3709 percent the previous day, indicating there was a squeeze on liquidity. The central bank sought to mop up 4 billion shillings from the market on Thursday, reinforcing its desire to cut volatility in the currency market, by pursuing a tightening stance through its open market operations.
What the Certified analysts think of the market Quote:In addition to a price correction, market analysts attribute the drop to a mix of factors, including the capital gains tax and a weaker currency but say market fundamentals remain strong. They rule out chances of a prolonged bear run. “Some stocks may have been overpriced, but this does not mean that the companies themselves are having any problems,” said Standard Investment Bank (SIB) analyst Eric Musau.
Plain an simple, econ readings are down. The market has to reprice that reality. That overvaluation has to deflate to normal reality levels. From the look of things a correction will not do the job so an extended correction(a bear) will check in to finish the job.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Hanergy
A complete impulse wave and then a correction. Trading has been halted on this share. Notice the 12345 impulse wave. Wave 4 (with the converging trend lines) is a triangle. Notice the two red lines on the chart. Shows divergence btw price and RSI. Usually happens during a fifth wave.i.e relative strength is stronger in a third wave compared to a fifth wave. People are speculating the reason for the fall. They will come up with wrong answers. Quote:The world's biggest solar technology company by market capitalisation got absolutely slaughtered this week.
Hanergy Thin Film Power is a Hong Kong-listed Chinese firm which has an astonishing boom story, which made its chairman China's richest man.
But on Wednesday it went through the floor — the stock's value was slashed nearly in half, falling 47% before trading was suspended.
linkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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obiero wrote:if u dont need the money at hand then there is no need to sell.. hold on. better times shall return Better times? Well, if you are looking at a time frame of plus five years then .... Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:The moment 4700 support level gives up I expect the newbies to completely disappear from the investor forum. The 4yr wedge breakdown is a serious warning that downside pressure is going to be nasty. NSE index is negative 3.61% as per yesterday's close (4932) from the year open (5117).
USDKES is negative 6.6% from year open (90.55) as per today's price (96.55). KES breakdown is ahead of market downside pressure! Bad signal. Meaning foreign investors are facing forex losses which are now starting to pile up with equity losses. This is forcing hands to start cutting losses or hasten profit booking.
Caution here for those that are still bullish. The econ growth feedback is not encouraging as well as those earnings warnings confirm the same. This is all happening before inflation becomes a headache! Is KE soon to face stagflation? Probably. That would be worse than dealing with inflation spike.
If stagflation presents itself, the market will deflate for quite some time e.g. a year or two!
I'm putting this extreme outlook so that those willing to remain during the stormy period ensure that they don't buy too soon. Buy window should be open for a year or two. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:The bear is at hand guys. Unfortunately many will not 'see' it come until they are consumed by it!  Assuming wave (4) is complete (evidence suggests it is ) then we can target the termination of wave (5). Options: a) Wave (5) being equal to wave (1) then wave (5) terminates at (5100.51-185.8) = 4914.71b) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 0.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(0.618 X 185.8)] = 4985.69c) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 1.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(1.618 X 185.8)] = 4799.89The c option is more likely. I expect lots of volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. In that case an elongated wave (5) would make sense. Also, as I have been saying for sometime, I want a clean break of the NSE 20 Index below 4907 level to increase odds of the bear to almost certainity. Option c would make ensure of that. Summary:Expect huge volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. Watch of 4907 level. Re-evaluate your share holdings in the NSE. The NSE 20 Share Index closes at 4879.95 May, 22nd, And well below our cited previous fourth wave (4907) level.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/1/2007 Posts: 539 Location: Nakuru
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Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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winmak wrote:Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! I concentrate more on forex now. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/16/2012 Posts: 661
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winmak wrote:Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... Not pessimism. This is just a concious 'early warning system' when the upward trend is too sweet as most make money & newbies relish the 'easy cash' Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Museveni wrote:winmak wrote:Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... Not pessimism. This is just a concious 'early warning system' when the upward trend is too sweet as most make money & newbies relish the 'easy cash' Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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I relish moments when I can buy good stocks cheaply. It is almost 2 years since. I've even drawn a bear wish list as i rub my hands and accumulate cash. Ill bring out the wishlist when the bear is in the room. get it? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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mnandii wrote:winmak wrote:Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! I concentrate more on forex now. The index is down mainly due to the profit taking on Safcom. Once that is taken care of the wave will def show an upward trend. If you can, please generate last year's chart. Esp from Mar 2014 "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,301 Location: kenya
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mnandii wrote:winmak wrote:Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NovYour pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! I concentrate more on forex now. When will this bear pass mnadii . Do you have an approximate time when it will be over
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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enyands wrote:mnandii wrote:winmak wrote:Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NovYour pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! I concentrate more on forex now. When will this bear pass mnadii . Do you have an approximate time when it will be over 1-2 years is what senior chartist @hisah said. The last one also took 1-2 years. but it depends on the severity of the bear The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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