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karanjakinuthia
#201 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 3:03:32 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
This chapter of Western Civilization will be regarded as "The Debt of Nations". Markets players aka debt vigilantes have put politicians' feet to the fire. Round the clock meetings to assuage the markets are in progress, the latest market buzz being that of a E.U. led bailout of Greece.

Between the Dollar, Euro and gold, which has the characteristics of a true reserve currency?

"Last week Moody’s Investors Service warned that the triple A credit rating of the US should not be taken for granted. That warning recalls Larry Summers’ killer question (posed before he returned to government): “How long can the world’s biggest borrower remain the world’s biggest power?”

On reflection, it is appropriate that the fiscal crisis of the west has begun in Greece, the birthplace of western civilization. Soon it will cross the channel to Britain. But the key question is when that crisis will reach the last bastion of western power, on the other side of the Atlantic...."

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com...k-sovereign-debt-crisis

karanjakinuthia
#202 Posted : Friday, February 12, 2010 6:21:07 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
It is a telco, a money transfer service and an internet service provider. It has been or will be number one in every segment it participates in. It's management is top class. It is one of the most widely held stocks thereby one with intense emotional tags. It is a cornerstone to any portfolio.

Purchase it on price dips.

"Mobile service provider Safaricom has announced that it hopes to rake in Sh13 billion in revenues from its data business over the next 20 months as it renews its assault on the internet market.

Continuing a hunt for new revenue streams as the profit margins on its voice services drop due to increased competition in the industry, the mobile firm is hoping the up tick in demand for Internet services will drive earnings.

“According to our latest financial results, data, including M-pesa, accounted for about 17 per cent of our revenues. We intend to double this performance in the next two years,” said Mr Michael Joseph, the Safaricom CEO, in an interview with Business Daily..."

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily...0/-/quf7gf/-/index.html

karanjakinuthia
#203 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 11:18:19 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
A stroll down memory lane to the most recent global currency crisis of 1931 makes for a must read in the wake of recent debt stresses in Dubai and Greece. The departure between now and then was that the world was on a gold standard and the U.S. was the world's largest creditor nation or lender. The crisis began in Europe caused capital or gold to flee in search of a safe haven in the U.S. The Dollar acted as a port of safety in those turbulent times due to the U.S. declaration of neutrality and as an arms dealer in World War II. By 1945, the U.S. owned 76% of the world's gold.

Today, the gold standard is no more whilst the U.S. is the world's largest debtor nation or borrower. How times have changed.

"The worst financial crisis of the past century began in a small central European country 77 years ago next month. The failure in May 1931 of Austria's largest bank, the Credit-Anstalt, set in train a series of repercussions that deepened the economic dislocation of the 1930s and contributed to the immiseration of an entire generation of people across the industrialized world...."

Read more:

http://www.canada.com/ot...-4865-adde-23c69019f414

karanjakinuthia
#204 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 6:11:50 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Markets to watch during the spat between the two Principals and affiliated parties are the currency and treasury debt markets. Continued uncertainty could push the shilling to the dollar above 80 which is a "line in the sand" as analysed in March 2009 (http://tinyurl.com/ybe5ueq). However, the stock market could become an attractive port of safety for capital that flees the treasury debt market. This would signal a preference of private sector over public sector assets.

"The gradual recovery of the key sectors that are the source of dollar inflows is expected to hold the Kenya shilling steady despite recent political developments that have rattled the local currency.

The shilling on Tuesday touched an eight-month low against the US dollar but later recouped some losses, sparking concerns that unfolding events in the political arena could lead to a repeat of the wild currency swings last seen in early 2008...."

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily...0/-/6buenq/-/index.html

karanjakinuthia
#205 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 1:54:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Would you rather own the U.S. Dollar, the Euro or Gold?

http://ftalphaville.ft.c...euro-pictorial-edition/

karanjakinuthia
#206 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 4:48:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Please review the gold chart here: http://tinyurl.com/yd9hg58 .I have utilised technical analysis to provide price targets.

Yesterday saw a new all time high in gold in Euro terms as investors seek safety from the destabilisation in the European states of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy.

The Euro lacks a mechanism which would allow a member nation to devalue its currency or adjust interest rates. Greece would have easily devalued the Drachma in the pre-Euro days, forcing debt investors to take a haircut on their holdings whilst easing their treasury's payment commitments. One spoilt apple in the Euro Area has the ability to upset the entire apple cart.

"Gold should continue to consolidate over the next few weeks but, the next big move is likely to be up.

This is the view of Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist John Embry, who says he is looking for the price of the yellow metal to hit around $1,350 to $1,400 by late spring.

Speaking on the inaugural Mineweb Gold Weekly Podcast, Embry says the recent downward trend seen in the gold price is nothing more than a healthy correction...."

Read more:

http://www.mineweb.co.za...amp;sn=Detail&pid=1

karanjakinuthia
#207 Posted : Friday, February 19, 2010 6:17:21 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
A candid assessment of the teetering house of cards - the over-indebtedness of nation states. In true LEAP 2020 fashion, a phrase is coined, that Greece is the tree that is being used to hide the forest of sovereign debt of the UK and US. I will add that the hue and cry over this tree is a well ochestrated plan to profit from the fall in its bond prices. The disrespectful term PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) demarcates nations in the sniper scope of bond vigilantes.

"LEAP/E2020 is of the view that the effect of States’ spending trillions to « counteract the crisis » will have fizzled out. These vast sums had the effect of slowing down the development of the systemic global crisis for several months but, as anticipated in previous GEAB reports, this strategy will only have ultimately served to clearly drag States into the crisis caused by the financial institutions.

Therefore our team anticipates, in this 42nd issue of the GEAB, a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years...."

Read more:

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-42-is-available!-Second-half-of-2010-Sudden-intensification-of-the-global-systemic-crisis-Strengthening-of-five_a4294.html
Scubidu
#208 Posted : Friday, February 19, 2010 7:46:17 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
kk. Do you follow oil? Stumbled on a few articles on Investors Daily Edge.

Check them out below:

http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/
http://www.investorsdail...eak-oil-is-a-crock.html
http://www.investorsdail...he-truth-about-oil.html

Do you know people who have opinions on how these scenarios will unfold?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
karanjakinuthia
#209 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 5:56:25 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Scubidu. Yes, I do follow oil, opting to invest in mid size exploration and production companies. I also selectively seek exploration companies that have great managements and blue sky prospects.

The articles fail to mention the role that the depreciation of the U.S. Dollar plays on the appreciation of oil. Keep in mind that crude oil may trade in the hundreds of dollars in the midst of poor demand fundamentals as long as the dollar races to the bottom.

Here's good source for energy related articles:

http://www.321energy.com/

Matthew Simmons, a strong proponent of Peak Oil:

http://www.simmonsco-int...ch.aspx?Type=msspeeches

If you have additional queries or comments please feel free to ask or post.

Scubidu
#210 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 2:44:05 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Thanks dude, although are we certain crude oil will be priced in dollars for the foreseeable future? But it's interesting you actually invest in exploration companies...wow...yeah they'd have to be pretty good cos that sounds kinda risky. Question kk, does oil drilling cause earthquakes? A friend of mine told me that. I'll be sure to bookmark those links. I definately need to read up more on this issue. Thanks again.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
karanjakinuthia
#211 Posted : Tuesday, February 23, 2010 5:59:29 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
You are welcome Scubidu.

There's usually a flurry of threats to abandon the Dollar as a pricing currency whenever it experiences a torrid decline. The only nation to have made good on that promise is Iran.

We are witnessing destabilisation in Europe that both eliminates the Euro as a stable reserve currency and a pricing currency for commodities. A plausible outcome is the pricing of crude oil in the One World Currency.

I am not aware of drilling being the cause of earthquakes.
karanjakinuthia
#212 Posted : Tuesday, February 23, 2010 6:15:53 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
"The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it's everywhere. The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money. In fact, the history of the recent financial crisis, which doubles as a history of the rapid decline and fall of the suddenly swindled-dry American empire, reads like a Who's Who of Goldman Sachs graduates." - Matt Taibbi.

Goldman is reported to have assisted Greece mask its public debt using complex debt swaps inorder stay within the E.U.'s requirements. These over the counter derivatives were the crux of the global financial crisis.

"And so the tragicomic becomes surreal. Yesterday's news about the departure of the head of the debt management agency, Spyros Papanicolaou, was somewhat of a yawner, until we realized that his replacement would be none other than Petros Christodoulou, who until today was head of Private Banking and Group Treasury at the National Bank of Greece (reporting directly to the CEO of the NBG Tamvakakis), as can be seen on the org chart below. Yet was is oddest, is that Mr. Christodoulou worked not only as head of derivatives at JP Morgan but also held comparable posts at Credit Suisse, and... wait for it, Goldman Sachs... Uh, say what?....."

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com...ldman-investment-banker

Scubidu
#213 Posted : Tuesday, February 23, 2010 6:51:49 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
You're right on kk concerning the dollar and Euro. The ECB can't control all the Euro central banks. Iran is the maverick and some like Ellen Brown suggest that the Iranian Central Banking model leans toward islamic principles, thus another reason for the West to worry (that's if islamic banking works). I'll send you an interesting E-book via mail with some stuff on Iran.

Goldman must be a great place to work...hardly anyone leaves...& you have it made after that. I hear they can help (maybe even finance) ex-employees to setup their own hedge funds. Matt Taibbi is a bit dramatic but he does write entertaining stuff. Just googled and found some stuff on the earthquake thing...apparently the further down u drill/explore the more likely u'll trigger earthquakes.

http://open.salon.com/bl...er_the_haiti_earthquake
http://blogs.wsj.com/env...arthquakes/tab/article/
http://www.ig.utexas.edu...h/projects/eq/faq/tx.htm
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
VituVingiSana
#214 Posted : Tuesday, February 23, 2010 7:05:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,131
Location: Nairobi
islamic financing is not that different... See the problems with sukuk bonds in Dubai...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Scubidu
#215 Posted : Tuesday, February 23, 2010 11:26:19 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Good point vvs. Just googled sukuk bonds and the following link came up. http://www.dubaisharetal.../viewtopic.php?t=10301. Read the comment by novice_investor (at the bottom) about how the nakheel sukuk bonds were secured...apparently different from conventional bonds becoz "a sukuk is backed by a set of assets whereas a bond is issued on the basis of a balance sheet (and indirectly based on assets)".

Maybe it's the connotations of interest-free anything that goes against all we believe...although I believe the proposed Iranian model is supposed to be quite radical...their central bank actually sets profit margins for commercial banks. It seems islamic banking only makes sense when most banks are owned by the govt, like in China, cos there's no profit incentive for private owners...

Check out pages 21-27 on the link below. The guy investigates ways to use islamic banking (actually full reserve) as an alternative to fractional reserve banking.

http://www2.gcc.edu/dept...actional_Res_Obrien.pdf

Where's kizee when u need him. I was told islamic banks don't do normal forex trading but instead perform currency swaps (something like that)...any truth to that?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
karanjakinuthia
#216 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 6:35:56 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Watching international news feeds on the Greek riots, one cannot help but wonder what the situation will degenerate to if the following story is true. Those that assisted European nations to hide their debt will certainly seek to profit from the decline in the Euro and sovereign debt.

When nations begin blaming each other for their woes, a vicious cycle is set in motion. A citizenry baying for the blood of politicians may result in the institution of draconian (first legislator of Ancient Greece) measures to protect the state as in the case of Iran. Further civil unrest due to deteriorating economic conditions increases the probability of contagion to other nations and war.

Refer to the currency crisis of 1931 whereby most of Europe defaulted on its debt, by 1939 the continent was engulfed in a fog of war.

"LONDON (Reuters) - Italy did more than Greece to mask the state of its finances to secure euro zone entry, Greek Deputy Prime Minister Theodoros Pangalos said, adding that Germany's history made it ill-placed to criticise his country.

The European Union has asked Greece to explain reports that it engaged in derivatives trades with U.S. investment banks that may have allowed it to mask the size of its debt and deficit from EU authorities ahead of its entry into the euro zone.

"You simply put some amounts of money in the next year ... it is what everybody did and Greece did it to a lesser extent than Italy for example," Pangalos said in an interview with BBC World Service radio broadcast on Wednesday...."

Read more:

http://www.nytimes.com/r...galos.html?_r=2&dbk

karanjakinuthia
#217 Posted : Sunday, February 28, 2010 7:04:33 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
The roster of world currencies is as follows:

Daric - Gold of Darius (Persia)
Tetradrachm - of Alexander the Great (Greek)
Denarius - Roman Republic (silver)
Solidus - Gold of Byzantine Empire
Ducat - Venice
8 Reals - Spanish silver "dollars" (Piece of 8)
Pound - English (Post Elizabeth I)
Dollar - United States

Source: Is It Time To Turn Out The Lights? - Martin Armstrong

"Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the International Monetary Fund, suggested Friday the organization might one day be called on to provide countries with a global reserve currency that would serve as an alternative to the U.S. dollar.

"That day has not yet come, but I think it is intellectually healthy to explore these kinds of ideas now," he said in a speech on the future mandate of the 186-nation Washington-based lending organization.

Strauss-Kahn said such an asset could be similar to but distinctly different from the IMF’s special drawing rights, or SDRs, the accounting unit that countries use to hold funds within the IMF. It is based on a basket of major currencies.

He said having other alternatives to the dollar "would limit the extent to which the international monetary system as a whole depends on the policies and conditions of a single, albeit dominant, country."...."

Read more:

http://abcnews.go.com/Bu...ss/wireStory?id=9958995

karanjakinuthia
#218 Posted : Sunday, February 28, 2010 7:26:44 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
In the wake of declining house property prices and rising unemployment, the coffers of former high flying U.S. states are facing exhaustion. Austerity measures, bitter medicine for political concerns in this election year are an absolute must. Greece is a litmus test of the backlash that may be forthcoming from the citizenry.

"In Arizona, a cash-pinched legislature put the Capitol building up for sale, proposing to lease it back for state use. In the small Colorado town of Colorado Springs, officials shut off half the street lamps and one-third of the traffic lights, told residents who wanted short grass in public parks to bring their own lawnmowers, and auctioned off a police helicopter on eBay. Around the country, libraries have been shuttered, after-school programmes have been curtailed, mental health services have been decimated.

In Los Angeles, the nation's second largest metropolis, the Democratic mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa, addressed a full session of the city council on 9 February to detail just how grim the city's finances had become. Miguel Santana, the city administrative officer (the CAO is the mayor and council's chief financial adviser) had recently informed the mayor's office that LA was facing a $200m shortfall through the end of this financial year and another half billion dollar-plus shortfall in the years to come if it didn't radically, and rapidly, restructure its budget. Santana didn't mince words. His nearly 300-page report (pdf) opened with this stark warning...."

Read more:

http://www.guardian.co.u...ancial-crisis-useconomy

karanjakinuthia
#219 Posted : Tuesday, March 02, 2010 6:17:05 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
A little gold goes a long way.

"The national environmental standards regulator has cleared a group of investors seeking to engage in a commercial gold prospecting in Lolgorien, area of Trans Mara district in western Kenya.

“The National Environmental and Management Agency (Nema) have issued the licence for the environmental impact assessment and all agreements with the local authorities have been completed,” Goldplat Plc chairman Brian Moritz said in a statement.

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) listed Goldplat is one of the two companies that are prospecting for commercially viable deposits of gold in the region around the Migori Archaean Greenstone Belt, where the Lolgorien licence area is located...."

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily.../-/t2uaghz/-/index.html

Scubidu
#220 Posted : Tuesday, March 02, 2010 11:27:31 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
I hope we find something shiny and valuable so that we can show off to Uganda with all their oil talk.

kk check out this article on China.

http://www.commodityonli...ay-go-up-26034-3-1.html

You have an opinion on this?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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