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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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obiero
#1281 Posted : Sunday, May 17, 2015 8:26:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,984
Location: nairobi
@kisa read through this and other earlier posts

KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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VituVingiSana
#1282 Posted : Sunday, May 17, 2015 2:24:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,268
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
He said the 2015 quarter one results will be released next week, subject
to Central Bank of Kenya approval.

what approval to release results???

I learnt a few years ago that CBK has to approve all (banks) results before they are released to the public. This applies to listed and unlisted banks. If you know the right person/s at CBK, you can get an early peek. Before you ask, I do not know anyone there...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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MaichBlack
#1283 Posted : Monday, May 18, 2015 11:37:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,663
Trading below rights price!!!

29.50/= prints!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack
#1284 Posted : Monday, May 18, 2015 11:43:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,663
I want to get "the rest of my rights". How low can this thing go.

I had set a target price of 33/=. After observing the market I changed that target to 30/=. Now that we are here (with a bang!!!) I am not sure if I should pull the trigger just yet?

Share your thoughts, facts, figures etc.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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mkonomtupu
#1285 Posted : Monday, May 18, 2015 11:51:50 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Cartoon says it's a falling knife
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MaichBlack
#1286 Posted : Monday, May 18, 2015 12:07:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,663
mkonomtupu wrote:
Cartoon says it's a falling knife

Mpaka wapi???
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Othelo
#1287 Posted : Monday, May 18, 2015 12:19:12 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
MaichBlack wrote:
Boris Boyka wrote:
kisa wrote:
after a successful rights issue w@ is their growth prospective n hw does it affect the share price

wee @kisa nauliza,houaing finance ni mnyama gani?

@Kisa - It is good manners to get the name of the lady you are wooing right. Otherwise things can head south very fast!!!

Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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mkonomtupu
#1288 Posted : Monday, May 18, 2015 12:40:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
MaichBlack wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
Cartoon says it's a falling knife

Mpaka wapi???


i have not done detailed cartoon but the basic 5 year pattern from the wazua stock profiler section shows a "inverse saucer" so you have to wait for the "saucer bottom" to shape then start accumulating at that point.

Quote:
DEFINITION of 'Inverse Saucer'
A technical chart formation that indicates the stock's price has reached its high and that the upward trend has come to an end. An inverse saucer is characterized by a steady flattening of the uptrend to such a degree that the market at one moment enters a sideways range, but then slowly starts to fall slowly and finally accelerates downward. This rare formation provides no clear price target but usually implies quite a lot of potential since 50% or more retracement of the preceding uptrend can be expected. Also known as "rounded top".



Read more: http://www.investopedia....aucer.asp#ixzz3aTuyN0V9
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mlennyma
#1289 Posted : Monday, May 18, 2015 1:50:14 PM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
I thank all who grabbed and finished the rights for me i will buy at my pleasure.iam eying 25
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Aguytrying
#1290 Posted : Monday, May 18, 2015 2:04:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
MaichBlack wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
Cartoon says it's a falling knife

Mpaka wapi???


@mlennyma , @maichblack.

I too had eyed it at 35 during rights. at 30 it corresponds with 46.00 before rights. the rights were overvalued.
but never the less. this is a clear indication of a major correction or bear.


If this is just a correction, any price Above 25 but below 30 is a steal.
in extreme bear sentiment, I would start getting interested at 20.00 and below. considering in 2011 it was at 13.00 and net asset value at that time at 24.00. so below 16.00 ( current NAV) in a proper bear can be in scope.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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obiero
#1291 Posted : Monday, May 18, 2015 7:38:27 PM
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Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,984
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
jerry wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
wale walio bado ndani ya hii gari.. chungeni mfuko!!! i will explain later

The price is still way too high for this stock and with a rights issue on the way, I shall buy 100 shares at 45 or below and then wait.. Fair value ignoring all
emotions is KES 32

So my sale at 31/= early this year was ok? I needed the cash badly then!

still trading at a premium price of kes 40.. buyer beware. but we are getting close to its real price

@30, we must re-enter! thats where the value lies and since some guys bought the monkey at 45 or higher, it will be a real bargain


KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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mlennyma
#1292 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 10:06:19 AM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
At 45bob 100 shares before rights was worth 4,500,after rights the 100 shares increased to 150 divide by 4500 total 30bob,conclusion hfck sold this shares at no discount.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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MaichBlack
#1293 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 10:26:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,663
Could the 29.50/= which printed yesterday be the bottom for this share?

Not many would be willing to sell it below 30/=. My thoughts.

One of my confusing times. To pull or not to pull the trigger. That is the question!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Aguytrying
#1294 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 12:10:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
MaichBlack wrote:
Could the 29.50/= which printed yesterday be the bottom for this share?

Not many would be willing to sell it below 30/=. My thoughts.

One of my confusing times. To pull or not to pull the trigger. That is the question!


We'll just confuse you. it depends on the current market cycle, which if u believe the techies its a bear.
if u believe the optimists its a correction
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Metasploit
#1295 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 12:17:37 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Aguytrying wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Could the 29.50/= which printed yesterday be the bottom for this share?

Not many would be willing to sell it below 30/=. My thoughts.

One of my confusing times. To pull or not to pull the trigger. That is the question!


We'll just confuse you. it depends on the current market cycle, which if u believe the techies its a bear.
if u believe the optimists its a correction


Not a correction..check HFCK 3 year chart!! critical support at 32-33 have been breached..Bears poking holes to test supply side..

Next support for HFCK is at 23

Big volumes have been exchanging hands in likes of DTB,KCB etc etc with action not being price increase but slight price decrease (distribution..????)

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Aguytrying
#1296 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 12:22:08 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Aguytrying wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Could the 29.50/= which printed yesterday be the bottom for this share?

Not many would be willing to sell it below 30/=. My thoughts.

One of my confusing times. To pull or not to pull the trigger. That is the question!


We'll just confuse you. it depends on the current market cycle, which if u believe the techies its a bear.
if u believe the optimists its a correction


To avoid confusion. value this share pre rights. then add a premium to what u think its worth. for me I would rather disregard the cash as a way to be conservative in a valuation.
so the factor is 1.5.
whatever its worth now x 1.5 gives the pre rights price.
so at 30x1.5= 45.
Then you can gauge the value properly .

The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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The optimist
#1297 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 12:35:06 PM
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Joined: 6/14/2010
Posts: 521
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Could the 29.50/= which printed yesterday be the bottom for this share?

Not many would be willing to sell it below 30/=. My thoughts.

One of my confusing times. To pull or not to pull the trigger. That is the question!


We'll just confuse you. it depends on the current market cycle, which if u believe the techies its a bear.
if u believe the optimists its a correction


To avoid confusion. value this share pre rights. then add a premium to what u think its worth. for me I would rather disregard the cash as a way to be conservative in a valuation.
so the factor is 1.5.
whatever its worth now x 1.5 gives the pre rights price.
so at 30x1.5= 45.
Then you can gauge the value properly .

Nice.That's a simple and straightforward way of comparing the price and value pre and post rights.
On the premium, my problem is gauging the premium based on the capital raised from the rights issue.
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mkonomtupu
#1298 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 12:36:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Battle of the fundies and techies. Also eyeing an entry but I would go with a 50% retracement from 45 which comes 22.5 a flat line will most form here
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mlennyma
#1299 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 1:40:51 PM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
A flat or profit decline in H1 should take us to 25 and below
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Aguytrying
#1300 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 3:14:06 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
A flat or profit decline in H1 should take us to 25 and below


If its a proper bear. not mtoto wa bear. ill start getting interested 13-20. I know that sounds extreme, but note. The mother bear.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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