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KENGEN RESULTS
timska
#1 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 8:31:06 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/19/2006
Posts: 18
This quiet interesting that a wholesaler in the name of KenGen cannot match profit made by a retailer in the name of KPLC. Mathematics aside, it beats all logic that such a poor performance has never been matched by the the rosy picture that has been continuously painted of this mostly monopolistic company as in : during the IPO and the bonds issue. Eddy Njoro just continues to create more eddy currents and turbulence that easily translates to attenuated cash flow. Ain't time for smoothing the flow and diminishing these eddy currents.
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sparkly
#2 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:15:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@timska on reading your first sentence, i was convinced that you were about to offer a deep analysis of the below par Kengen performance! Lol your post makes for light reading for the frustrated shareholders out there though.
Life is short. Live passionately.
guru267
#3 Posted : Saturday, February 27, 2010 10:52:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
As long as kengen continues to rely this heavily on hydro power then its profit outlook doesnt look too rosy... i think to make good money from this counter investors may have to wait a minimum of 7 years as its sorts out its diversification/expansion...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Gatheuzi
#4 Posted : Saturday, February 27, 2010 11:31:54 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
While I had acquired some units at an average of 22.79, I finally exited last month at 15.20. Although I made a loss of 33%, I figured out that Iam better off out of this counter. My reasons for the exit have been confirmed by the results i.e. overreliance on Hydro and even with Sh25Bln loan much will go to finance expensive thermal and drought prone hydro plants.

If I was convinced that KENGEN intend to pursue Geothermal seriously, I would have stayed on.

It seems only a strategic investor with more knowledge on power operations can save KENGEN.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
Gordon Gekko
#5 Posted : Saturday, February 27, 2010 1:40:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@gatheuzi, Kengen doesn't over rely on hydro - IT IS A HYDRO GENERATOR and has been for as long as I have known it. There is a company that generates using geo (called Geothermal something) there are the ibeafricas and Tsavo Powers that do fuel powered generation. There is a separate entity that does wind generation at Ngong - can't remember the name.
sparkly
#6 Posted : Saturday, February 27, 2010 3:40:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
@gatheuzi, Kengen doesn't over rely on hydro - IT IS A HYDRO GENERATOR and has been for as long as I have known it. There is a company that generates using geo (called Geothermal something) there are the ibeafricas and Tsavo Powers that do fuel powered generation. There is a separate entity that does wind generation at Ngong - can't remember the name.


Kengen signed up New Zealand consultants Sinclair Knight Merz to come up with the technical design, prepare tender documents and pre-qualify potential bidders for a 280 megawatts geothermal power project in Olkaria.

Project to cost SH 100B and to be completed in Mid 2013... Business Daily 10 Feb 2010.

I am preparing an arsenal to invade KENGEN with, between now and 2011, while the prices are still low.

Why?

- Classic Buffet stock.
- Demand for power, specifically cheap power can only go up.
- Investors are still looking short term, while I hold a medium/ Longterm view.
- Even if i am wrong, the fundamentals are OK and there is a chance of a good return, even without the Geothermal project.
Life is short. Live passionately.
muganda
#7 Posted : Saturday, February 27, 2010 3:50:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Hmmmn @sparkly, and why would you launch your arsenal into Kengen as opposed to KPLC? Just asking...

It seems at times like performance of the two are inversely correlated.
the deal
#8 Posted : Saturday, February 27, 2010 4:13:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@ muganda hehehe i cant help it but laugh...unless sparkly is looking @ 5 years from now...it looks like kengen is still in the planning phase...i will by kengen say @ 8 bob whereas i will buy kplc anytime provided i have the cash.
sparkly
#9 Posted : Sunday, February 28, 2010 7:07:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@muganda my rationale is that Kengen will be able to produce cheaper bulk power and sell it to the Kplc at the same agreed price. Kplc will of course buy more from kengen as opposed to the thermal sources. Kplc's operating expenses are more than kengen's hence an investor will get a better return from investing in kengen. I am also apprehensive of the effect of the restructuring on the kplc stock. Remember the GOK pref shares arose from amounts owed by kplc to kengen. @thedeal cheka tu ... Are you not the same dude advising people to buy into safcom in march, wait for results in april, sell cum div and jump into mumias in May! In this game, patience is not A virtue but THE virtue.
Life is short. Live passionately.
the deal
#10 Posted : Sunday, February 28, 2010 10:49:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@ sparkly my advice is free of charge...whereas for kengen lauch ur arsenal if you are looking long term like you said...but theres one red flag on kengen...they have borrowed to much(bonds,loans)...note also the decline in the EPS...THERES NO HOPE FOR GOOD DIV HERE...LOL.
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