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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Member Joined: 12/1/2007 Posts: 539 Location: Nakuru
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It'sote=Gatheuzi] hisah wrote:KES is starting to get disorderly vs the USD. Line in the sand is 100. Breach that level and NSE heads into sunset as lending rates start to squeeze liquidity. Firms with forex loans will feel the squeeze too.
Polishing my defensive armor ready for the bear battle. Cash is the new king in town. I sold my entire holdings last week.[/quote] Its that bad? For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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winmak wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:hisah wrote:KES is starting to get disorderly vs the USD. Line in the sand is 100. Breach that level and NSE heads into sunset as lending rates start to squeeze liquidity. Firms with forex loans will feel the squeeze too.
Polishing my defensive armor ready for the bear battle. Cash is the new king in town. I sold my entire holdings last week. Its that bad? All the sold counters are lower this week. I expect them to fall further as the reality hits home. No need to fall in love with stocks when they can't hug you as the bear does its thing. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/2/2014 Posts: 123
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Gatheuzi wrote:hisah wrote:KES is starting to get disorderly vs the USD. Line in the sand is 100. Breach that level and NSE heads into sunset as lending rates start to squeeze liquidity. Firms with forex loans will feel the squeeze too.
Polishing my defensive armor ready for the bear battle. Cash is the new king in town. I sold my entire holdings last week. the recent bear brings about the fullness of learning especially for the generation that started trading after 2012, who believe that stocks only move up. ,
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Gatheuzi wrote:hisah wrote:KES is starting to get disorderly vs the USD. Line in the sand is 100. Breach that level and NSE heads into sunset as lending rates start to squeeze liquidity. Firms with forex loans will feel the squeeze too.
Polishing my defensive armor ready for the bear battle. Cash is the new king in town. I sold my entire holdings last week.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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ike wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:hisah wrote:KES is starting to get disorderly vs the USD. Line in the sand is 100. Breach that level and NSE heads into sunset as lending rates start to squeeze liquidity. Firms with forex loans will feel the squeeze too.
Polishing my defensive armor ready for the bear battle. Cash is the new king in town. I sold my entire holdings last week. the recent bear brings about the fullness of learning especially for the generation that started trading after 2012, who believe that stocks only move up. I like this!  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:KES is starting to get disorderly vs the USD. Line in the sand is 100. Breach that level and NSE heads into sunset as lending rates start to squeeze liquidity. Firms with forex loans will feel the squeeze too.
Polishing my defensive armor ready for the bear battle. I've been ready for a long time seeing as my laggards are already in bear mode. I can already see the purchases.... safcom, equity, kcb, BAT. EABL. HFCK, JUBILEE. gives me goose bumbs just knowing it might happen Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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The era of negative interest rates.  Some powerful people do not want you to own cash!Quote:As part of a wide group of proposals to boost economic growth, Denmark wants to allow shops, including restaurants, gas stations, and clothing stores, to stop taking cash. Right now, these establishments must accept cash payments.
The country's lawmakers support the move to electronic payments because they are concerned that physical money puts too many “administrative and financial burdens” on shops and that it acts as a drag on GDP growth.
Denmark's New Rules Eliminate CashConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote: Safaricom Share price. Notice the decreasing momentum AND the completed impulse wave. Never mind the financials. Time to SELL! I expect Safcom to trade below 15.75 coming week. Safcom touches 15.85 today. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:The bear is at hand guys. Unfortunately many will not 'see' it come until they are consumed by it!  Wave analysis:Guys watch the above impulse wave keenly. It follows Elliott's rules and guidelines impeccably. Notice how wave (3) subdivides into smaller 5 waves (i.e waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5)! Notice that wave 3 itself subdivides into 5 smaller waves! Notice that wave (3) is elongated as compared to wave (1)! Notice that wave (4) is longer and more complex than wave (2). This is the guideline of alternation. Notice that bracket wave (4) ends in the territory of wave 4! This is the guideline of depth of corrective waves. Detailed Analytics:Wave (1) terminates at 5313.84 Wave (2) at 5346.56 Wave (3) at 5026.79 Wave (4) at 5100.51 Wave lengths: Wave (1) = (5499.64-5313.84) = 185.8 Wave (2) = (5346.56-5313.84) = 32.72 Wave (3) = (5346.56-5026.79) = 319.77 Wave (4) = (5100.51-5026.79) = 73.72 Wave (3) is approximately 1.618 X wave (1) Wave (2) is Fibonacci 0.382 X wave (4). Wave (4) is Fibonacci 0.236 X wave wave (3). Assuming wave (4) is complete (evidence suggests it is ) then we can target the termination of wave (5). Options: a) Wave (5) being equal to wave (1) then wave (5) terminates at (5100.51-185.8) = 4914.71b) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 0.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(0.618 X 185.8)] = 4985.69c) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 1.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(1.618 X 185.8)] = 4799.89The c option is more likely. I expect lots of volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. In that case an elongated wave (5) would make sense. Also, as I have been saying for sometime, I want a clean break of the NSE 20 Index below 4907 level to increase odds of the bear to almost certainity. Option c would make ensure of that. Summary:Expect huge volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. Watch of 4907 level. Re-evaluate your share holdings in the NSE. NSE 20 Share Index at below option B. My aim remains option C.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/28/2014 Posts: 41
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ike wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:hisah wrote:KES is starting to get disorderly vs the USD. Line in the sand is 100. Breach that level and NSE heads into sunset as lending rates start to squeeze liquidity. Firms with forex loans will feel the squeeze too.
Polishing my defensive armor ready for the bear battle. Cash is the new king in town. I sold my entire holdings last week. the recent bear brings about the fullness of learning especially for the generation that started trading after 2012, who believe that stocks only move up. Thank you ike for pointing this out. I'm one of those who believe that stocks only move up. I once emailed my broker asking what happens when NSE 20 share index is falling, like it did from about 4500 in year 2010 to just above 3000 in 2011, and they never bothered to reply Good judgement is often the result of experience. Experience is often the result of bad judgement.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Buy defensive stocks. Markets go up. And down Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/23/2015 Posts: 16 Location: mtandao
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:The bear is at hand guys. Unfortunately many will not 'see' it come until they are consumed by it! Wave analysis:Guys watch the above impulse wave keenly. It follows Elliott's rules and guidelines impeccably. Notice how wave (3) subdivides into smaller 5 waves (i.e waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5)! Notice that wave 3 itself subdivides into 5 smaller waves! Notice that wave (3) is elongated as compared to wave (1)! Notice that wave (4) is longer and more complex than wave (2). This is the guideline of alternation. Notice that bracket wave (4) ends in the territory of wave 4! This is the guideline of depth of corrective waves. Detailed Analytics:Wave (1) terminates at 5313.84 Wave (2) at 5346.56 Wave (3) at 5026.79 Wave (4) at 5100.51 Wave lengths: Wave (1) = (5499.64-5313.84) = 185.8 Wave (2) = (5346.56-5313.84) = 32.72 Wave (3) = (5346.56-5026.79) = 319.77 Wave (4) = (5100.51-5026.79) = 73.72 Wave (3) is approximately 1.618 X wave (1) Wave (2) is Fibonacci 0.382 X wave (4). Wave (4) is Fibonacci 0.236 X wave wave (3). Assuming wave (4) is complete (evidence suggests it is ) then we can target the termination of wave (5). Options: a) Wave (5) being equal to wave (1) then wave (5) terminates at (5100.51-185.8) = 4914.71b) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 0.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(0.618 X 185.8)] = 4985.69c) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 1.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(1.618 X 185.8)] = 4799.89The c option is more likely. I expect lots of volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. In that case an elongated wave (5) would make sense. Also, as I have been saying for sometime, I want a clean break of the NSE 20 Index below 4907 level to increase odds of the bear to almost certainity. Option c would make ensure of that. Summary:Expect huge volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. Watch of 4907 level. Re-evaluate your share holdings in the NSE. NSE 20 Share Index at below option B. My aim remains option C. From 5499 to 4799 is a market correction not a bear market, I think. Isn't it? Compounding
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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@growing what you are seeing above is the intermediate and minor wave. Its a wave within a wave (yaani unaona mawimbi na tsunami yaja). If you go Post#1 in this thread you will see the Cycle wave(yaani tsunami) represented by upper case Roman numerals(I, II, III,IV,V, a,b,c) where I-V are the basic 5 wave impulse sequence(tukienda juu) and a,b,c is the 3 wave corrective sequence(tukirudi chini). What @mnandii is telling you we are about to hit wave c corrective sequence.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Strong rejection @5500 level as expected. Still a solid multi year barrier with NSE20 now clocking a 5 week losing streak enroute to test the 5000 handle. Waiting to see if former multi-year resistance will offer support. Support buffer is cluster between 4900 - 5050 level. Below there down to 4700. When the 4yr rising wedge is broken downwards, bears will be in the driving seat. NSE20 enroute to close in the red 6 weeks in a row! You have to go back to Q2 2012 to spot this losing streak in weekly cartoon! On the monthly cartoon, if April closes in the red that will be a 2 month sellside trend.
Should the above rising wedge break down hard, the entire 2013/2014 gains risk reversal. Keep an eye on this. While break above up rising trendline will open a retest of 6000 level last seen in 2007. @aguy - the wedge has broken down after closing below the 5000 handle! Definitely the index is heading to 4700 in coming weeks. Will be hard for any bounce to break above 5200 going forward. Below 4700 bears get stronger as sell pressure begins to pile up. At that low level USDKES will likely be at 98 - 100 level. Those holding overvalued stocks that have rallied against fundies and on vapour volume get ready for a reality check selloff!
@mnandii - financial are definitely in the thick of this ensuing storm
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/1/2007 Posts: 539 Location: Nakuru
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I have given up on chasing the market downwards (all my sell orders are failing as prices hit new lows)... I will wait for them to hit rock bottom and average down... (Someone kindly educate me on defensive stocks, this term is being thrown around lately)... For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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winmak wrote:I have given up on chasing the market downwards (all my sell orders are failing as prices hit new lows)... I will wait for them to hit rock bottom and average down... (Someone kindly educate me on defensive stocks, this term is being thrown around lately)... High dividend yield bluechips the likes of Bamburi Stanchart etc @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2011 Posts: 207 Location: humu humu
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winmak wrote:I have given up on chasing the market downwards (all my sell orders are failing as prices hit new lows)... I will wait for them to hit rock bottom and average down... (Someone kindly educate me on defensive stocks, this term is being thrown around lately)... Energy stocks and retailers/food...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,551 Location: nairobi
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if u dont need the money at hand then there is no need to sell.. hold on. better times shall return
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@hisah. Thank God for the discipline of staying away from overvalued counters when everyone was making money from them. we Just need the NSE reset properly. then by 2017- 18. we can talk of double tripple profits like happened in 2011. for me it's exciting, I can add stars to the laggards. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The moment 4700 support level gives up I expect the newbies to completely disappear from the investor forum. The 4yr wedge breakdown is a serious warning that downside pressure is going to be nasty. NSE index is negative 3.61% as per yesterday's close (4932) from the year open (5117). USDKES is negative 6.6% from year open (90.55) as per today's price (96.55). KES breakdown is ahead of market downside pressure! Bad signal. Meaning foreign investors are facing forex losses which are now starting to pile up with equity losses. This is forcing hands to start cutting losses or hasten profit booking. Caution here for those that are still bullish. The econ growth feedback is not encouraging as well as those earnings warnings confirm the same. This is all happening before inflation becomes a headache! Is KE soon to face stagflation? Probably. That would be worse than dealing with inflation spike. If stagflation presents itself, the market will deflate for quite some time e.g. a year or two! I'm putting this extreme outlook so that those willing to remain during the stormy period ensure that they don't buy too soon. Buy window should be open for a year or two. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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