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KCB results not so impressive:
VituVingiSana
#41 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 7:41:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
Kamzee wrote:
I still do not understand why the need of the additional 15b when they had a rights issue recently?
Is it a case of blatant inefficiency and the obviously below average customer service hidden by beautiful adverts all over?


Several reasons (I speculate):
- Tighter capital requirements post-2008 crisis
- Basel II requirements
- Expansion (regional) means 'new banks' need to be setup. I dont mean just buildings but entirely new capital needs, HR, systems, licenses, etc
- Cover losses from expansion. Only Sudan made money. UG, TZ, RW all made losses. Tough markets with loads of competition.

I dont think KCB will raise all 15bn in one go... but probably in tranches like BBK did... a few billion a time...

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mkonomtupu
#42 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 7:47:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Kamzee wrote:
Why are you guys so much on the case of KCB?However, what I still do not understand why the need of the additional 15b when they had a rights issue recently?
Is it a case of blatant inefficiency and the obviously below average customer service hidden by beautiful adverts all over?


KCB is like an A student bringing home a C+ report.
The rights issue is needed because the capital adequacy is at 14.9%. KCB is taking a lot of deposits so it needs to expand its capital base to satisfy the CBK requirements.
It's a buy, buy for me. The west africans supported UBA and Ecobank let's do the same.
Wa_ithaka
#43 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 7:52:37 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
When will KCB's regional expansion start paying off (apart South Sudan)? Has TZ broken even almost 10yrs since KCb went there? Why do they continue to run this bank with huge potential like a parastatal?
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
kizee
#44 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 8:01:16 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
can anyone tell me how they think kcb will grow their top line? in 09 they really tightend their belts and cut costs....decided to do a retrenchment in 2010...so once all this is done where do u guys see the growth come in? what is kcb doing different to justify a higher return? btw issuing a note adds an interest cost element to the p&l that didnt exist prior...a 15 yr note at a conservative 10pct means an extra cost of 150mio a year in interest...so the subsidiaries invested in wud need to make at least 150mio per year to justify the investment...at the moment subs are makin a net loss of 100mio with no clear indication of a change in fortunes...i wudnt touch kcb with a ten trillion foot pole at the moment
Gordon Gekko
#45 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 8:25:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
My fear is that I will not be able to defend my position at the rights issue. I'm guessing a rights price of ksh 15.
Scubidu
#46 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 8:43:22 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@vvs. So ABSA is not the agent for Barclays Bank Plc…BBK management is autonomous? Most multinationals are running things from SA.

I wonder why most people think KCB can grow it’s top-line, its loans in 2009 were more than SCBK and BBK combined…their loan history speaks volumes…19 bn loaned in 2007…29 bn in 2008…27 bn in 2009…is this growth suddenly going to disappear this year (during expected 4% GDP growth) and head straight for Equity, SCBK and BBK…restructuring is at on full swing, inflation is low and expansion is through, MD said so himself, so expenses ratios will not be significantly higher…

btw did you guys notice insider loans…that’s something worrying me, almost reaching 18% of net loan book…who are these shareholders borrowings massive loans?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
VituVingiSana
#47 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:27:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
Scubidu wrote:
@vvs. So ABSA is not the agent for Barclays Bank Plc…BBK management is autonomous? Most multinationals are running things from SA.

I think (check it out) Barclays PLC owns 60% of ABSA. I dont pay attention to PLC or ABSA coz no shares in them...
BBK's (I have shares) parent is PLC not ABSA...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#48 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:30:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
mkonomtupu wrote:
Kamzee wrote:
Why are you guys so much on the case of KCB?


KCB is like an A student bringing home a C+ report.
The rights issue is needed because the capital adequacy is at 14.9%. KCB is taking a lot of deposits so it needs to expand its capital base to satisfy the CBK requirements.
It's a buy, buy for me. The west africans supported UBA and Ecobank let's do the same.

I like the analogy!

As for support... I was badly chomeka'd during the last Rights @25... so to be honest I am out of cash...

As for 'support'... invest in the best not based on nationality... I will have to decide whether my money will make me more money in KCB or other stocks...

Today, I am moving into KPLC... I see better growth for my cash there... [And I can be patriotic tho that is secondary!]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#49 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:32:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
My fear is that I will not be able to defend my position at the rights issue. I'm guessing a rights price of ksh 15.

LOL... I got burnt at 25/- Rights Issue in 2008 so same here...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#50 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:43:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
kizee wrote:

can anyone tell me how they think kcb will grow their top line?
retrenchment in 2010...so once all this is done where do u guys see the growth come in?
what is kcb doing different to justify a higher return?
a 15 yr note at a conservative 10pct means an extra cost of 150mio a year in interest...so the subsidiaries invested in wud need to make at least 150mio per year to justify the investment...at the moment subs are makin a net loss of 100mio with no clear indication of a change in fortunes

Good questions:
- Can anyone tell me how they think kcb will grow their top line?
Well, I think the loan growth will translate into higher earnings as long as KCB keeps bad debts down & maintains/expands NIM. Growth will come from the CORE business of lending. The rest (forex income, commissions) are all icing...
- The retrenchment is about 'rightsizing'... OK, I dont like to use these terms but KCB needs savvier/knowledgeable/friendlier employeess not the civil service wazee...
- I see KCB pushing for more slef-service options like ATMs & online banking
- what is kcb doing different to justify a higher return?
No idea! Yet... waiting for AGM
- KCB hopes Rw, Ug Tz become profitable in 2010. Sometimes it takes time to build up a brand.

Example: KenolKobil slowly built up its regional business by acquisitions & as new entrants. Ethiopia (80+ stations) still loses cash (or makes very little) but the expectations are high. After 7 years, KK's regional subsidiaries (current) ROI has exceeded Kenya!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#51 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:46:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
kizee wrote:
A 15 yr note at a conservative 10pct means an extra cost of 150mio a year in interest...so the subsidiaries invested in wud need to make at least 150mio per year to justify the investment...at the moment subs are makin a net loss of 100mio with no clear indication of a change in fortunes


Actually, 10% of 15bn = 1.5bn...
Now, I wud not mind borrowing from a chap like you... as long as u calculate at 10% of 10%... LOL...

Of the 15bn, not all would go to the subsidiaries... I think KCB will invest a good chunk into expanding their Kenya footprint through ATMs, etc...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kizee
#52 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 10:00:56 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
LOL VVS 1.5BN IS EVEN MORE PRICEY FWIW...in any case wat glorious investments will kcb make that will yield a return of above 10 perecent year on year..which returns they did not invest in during the FY 2009
VituVingiSana
#53 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 10:07:29 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
kizee wrote:
LOL VVS 1.5BN IS EVEN MORE PRICEY FWIW...in any case wat glorious investments will kcb make that will yield a return of above 10 perecent year on year..which returns they did not invest in during the FY 2009

Not as simple as that... It is NOT about lending the 15bn (or the capital) but about using that to leverage the capital structure for more deposits (thus increased lending)...

For more info look up Reserve Ratio... multiple sources... just google...

This topic is way too complex (or rather I am lazy) to discuss here... Please ask questions if u have them...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Wa_ithaka
#54 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 11:03:09 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
NSE badly needs shareholder activism.
What is Ksh15bn going to be spent on that is going generate returns of around 12% (or whatever t-bills) are now? Why is it paying out Ksh2.2bn in dividends at the sametime as asking for Ksh15bn?
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
kizee
#55 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 11:19:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
wa ithaka
very very well put..kcb need to buy a clue
sheep
#56 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 11:28:14 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
Has everyone turned their backs on the once beloved golden child? Give the lion two or so years and it will leap again.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
kizee
#57 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 11:29:13 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
VituVingiSana wrote:
kizee wrote:

can anyone tell me how they think kcb will grow their top line?
retrenchment in 2010...so once all this is done where do u guys see the growth come in?
what is kcb doing different to justify a higher return?
a 15 yr note at a conservative 10pct means an extra cost of 150mio a year in interest...so the subsidiaries invested in wud need to make at least 150mio per year to justify the investment...at the moment subs are makin a net loss of 100mio with no clear indication of a change in fortunes

Good questions:
- Can anyone tell me how they think kcb will grow their top line?
Well, I think the loan growth will translate into higher earnings as long as KCB keeps bad debts down & maintains/expands NIM. Growth will come from the CORE business of lending. The rest (forex income, commissions) are all icing...
- The retrenchment is about 'rightsizing'... OK, I dont like to use these terms but KCB needs savvier/knowledgeable/friendlier employeess not the civil service wazee...
- I see KCB pushing for more slef-service options like ATMs & online banking
- what is kcb doing different to justify a higher return?
No idea! Yet... waiting for AGM
- KCB hopes Rw, Ug Tz become profitable in 2010. Sometimes it takes time to build up a brand.

Example: KenolKobil slowly built up its regional business by acquisitions & as new entrants. Ethiopia (80+ stations) still loses cash (or makes very little) but the expectations are high. After 7 years, KK's regional subsidiaries (current) ROI has exceeded Kenya!


...all these are pipe dreams! kwani other banks will just sit by and watch while kcb gets it right?kcbtz hasnt turned a profit in over 8 years of operation, what will change? the subsidairies returned a net loss of 100mio...all are in the red including the blue eyed boy of the group(read sudan)..ok except s&l which is now a dept...kcb needs a radical change...the entire board must go..the retrenchment cannot weed out anywher close to as many people need to be weeded out...the civil servants culture is already entrenched in the newer entrants...
VituVingiSana
#58 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 11:59:57 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
@kizee - Wacha complaining bila facts! LOL...
Or state what is fact & opinion

- KCB TZ made a profit in 2008. See the annual report.
- Where did u get that Sudan made a loss?

No-one is saying KCB will make it right... we have no idea... And no-one (esp Equity) is going to wait around for KCB to get their act in order...

For me... it will boil down to numbers... There are many fish in the sea...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kizee
#59 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 12:25:17 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
kcbtz made 18mio in profits in 08!everything is factual...i challenge u to prove me wrong...kcbtz is bak in the red sudan made 90mio odd-ok not a loss really but the circumstances surrounding sudans figs are amazing(08 figure was inxs of 500mio)...all others made losses...those are facts..no fiction my man unless u can prove otherwise
VituVingiSana
#60 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 12:30:36 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
kizee wrote:
kcbtz made 18mio in profits in 08!everything is factual...i challenge u to prove me wrong...kcbtz is bak in the red sudan made 90mio odd...all others made losses...those are facts..no fiction mya man unless u can prove otherwise

I am not challenging you... LOL... I just pointed out the untruths (I do not want to call them lies) you were peddling...

There were only 2 items I pointed out coz those were 'facts' as provided by KCB... unless they lied!

I am not disputing your opinions... everyone has one... sometimes more than one...As I said before, there is a distinction...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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