Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
My Picks for 2015
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
|
At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise. Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion. Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015. KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward. NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years. My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015: 40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share 30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share 30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share I will constantly update this post in case of any developments. Happy Investing 2015. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
|
S.Mutaga III wrote:At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise. Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion. Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015. KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward. NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years. My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015: 40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share 30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share 30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share
I will constantly update this post in case of any developments. Happy Investing 2015. .This is well insightful and also very helpful I appreciate much
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 1/13/2014 Posts: 386 Location: Denmark
|
enyands wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise. Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion. Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015. KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward. NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years. My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015: 40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share 30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share 30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share
I will constantly update this post in case of any developments. Happy Investing 2015. .This is well insightful and also very helpful I appreciate much Great respect to your style of investing.. all the best and keep us updated Seeing is believing
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
|
Mutaga, what is your take on safaricom in the longterm? would love to hear your view on what would be a good entry price
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
|
S.Mutaga III wrote:At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise. Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion. Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015. KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward. NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years. My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015: 40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share 30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share 30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share
I will constantly update this post in case of any developments. Happy Investing 2015. welcome to stocks our prodigal son,what is your brother jimnah saying?is he still pessimistic?? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
|
heri wrote:Mutaga, what is your take on safaricom in the longterm? would love to hear your view on what would be a good entry price With a current forward PE of around 21, I would not touch this counter. It is grossly overvalued. A PE of 21 means that if safaricom was your personal business, it would take you 21 years to get the money you invested back. I like counters with PE's of 7 and below. I would only get into safaricom at a value of 5 or less. The maximum I would pay for a safaricom share ceteris paribus is Ksh 5. However, you may have to perish the thoughts of boarding the safaricom bus and wait for a bear market for you to get it at a fair price. I suggest you seek other counters rather than wait. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
|
mlennyma wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise. Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion. Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015. KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward. NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years. My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015: 40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share 30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share 30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share
I will constantly update this post in case of any developments. Happy Investing 2015. welcome to stocks our prodigal son,what is your brother jimnah saying?is he still pessimistic?? Please note that I only invested after the Kenya Power and Unga results were out and the government guaranteed Kenya Re's business...before then, no company met my strict criteria and therefore I was ready to stay out. As for Mbaru, we are totally independent and I am not authorized to speak on his behalf. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
|
S.Mutaga III wrote:At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise. Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion. Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015. KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward. NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years. My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015: 40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share 30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share 30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share
I will constantly update this post in case of any developments. Happy Investing 2015. good job @S.Mutaga III, im in two of the above buses kenya re and kenya power i tried unga @ 35 when it was getting a beating unsuccessfully, i will try it again when it goes below 40 There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
|
At least you've avoided overvalued banks, ill give you that The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/3/2012 Posts: 1,317
|
Mutaga, I followed you last year and was amazed you hit your targets in July. What happened to the real estate thing you were aiming at?
Also whats your take on KQ as per the stats?
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
|
kollabo wrote:Mutaga, I followed you last year and was amazed you hit your targets in July. What happened to the real estate thing you were aiming at?
Also whats your take on KQ as per the stats? Its common knowledge here that KQ is a monkey, Mutaga is smart to avoid mentioning it. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 8/14/2009 Posts: 244
|
KQ=MSC= monkey for the near future. My personal experience is, am stuck with MSC on the red at 60% even averaging cant work. I look at KQ in a similar way.
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
|
I will load more Kenya Re and KPLC if their prices hit KSh 15 per share. This will signal my second phase of buying. Low prices = Better bargains on the same companies. Unga seems stuck at around 45 A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 1/2/2008 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi
|
S.Mutaga III wrote:At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise. Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion. Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015. KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward. NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years. My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015: 40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share 30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share 30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share
I will constantly update this post in case of any developments. Happy Investing 2015. I like your well explained choice of shares, but I am just wondering aloud, are you using just one parameter, P/E to decide that the share is cheap and select or there are other considerations you have used?
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 977 Location: Kenya
|
I went heavy on Safaricom before half year results at 12 now offloading at 18 since it is overpriced past that price at the moment
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
|
icecube wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise. Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion. Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015. KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward. NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years. My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015: 40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share 30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share 30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share
I will constantly update this post in case of any developments. Happy Investing 2015. I like your well explained choice of shares, but I am just wondering aloud, are you using just one parameter, P/E to decide that the share is cheap and select or there are other considerations you have used? I use P/E and earnings growth. In a bear market, I would throw in a third parameter which is dividend yield A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
|
KPLC and Kenya Re are currently testing lower lows. I view this as a bargain hunting opportunity. I will accumulate a huge chunk once they hit Ksh 16. My investment horizon is 3 years. The lower prices fall, the sweeter the deal. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 767
|
. They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 767
|
S.Mutaga III wrote:At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise. Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion. Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015. KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward. NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years. My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015: 40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share 30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share 30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share
I will constantly update this post in case of any developments. Happy Investing 2015. Contradicting yourself eh ? They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
mlennyma wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise. Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion. Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015. KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward. NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years. My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015: 40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share 30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share 30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share
I will constantly update this post in case of any developments. Happy Investing 2015. welcome to stocks our prodigal son, what is your brother jimnah saying?is he still pessimistic?? Britam and TCL offloaded. Quite clear that signal.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
My Picks for 2015
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|