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Agriculture Stocks - Moto Moto
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VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 12:20:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
On 24 Feb 2010...

Highest Gainers:

Rea Vipingo: VWAP = 15.25 (+9.32%) but closed with no sellers & 33,900 on bid at 15.30 (highest for the day)... 221,700 traded

Sasini: VWAP = 8.55 (+7.55%) but closed with no sellers & 665,500 on bid at 8.70 (highest for the day)... 1,370,000 traded

Kakuzi: VWAP = 39.75 (+7.43%) but closed with no sellers & 2,100 on bid at 37/-... 21,500 traded

Williamson: VWAP = 135 (+3.85%) but closed with no sellers & 7,100 on bid at 135/-... 44,600 traded

There is definitely something going on here...
VituVingiSana attached the following image(s):
j0150064rv.jpg (36kb) downloaded 1 time(s).
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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kishindo
#2 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 2:43:03 PM
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cant put a finger on it....looks like i'll be offloading sasini soooon!
this market is up to something..
Less is more....for Architects only!!
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Gordon Gekko
#3 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 4:44:21 PM
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Hail Herr Merali!! Viva Sasini!! The ride is so blinding I can't keep by eyes open!!!
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VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 2:48:24 AM
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Yeah... I was also surprised but tea prices have been rising...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#5 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 5:52:20 AM
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i think this rapid price increase is due to the unusual scenario where tea prices are risisng amidst rising supply... which spells one of those SUPER years for agricultural earnings
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 6:01:37 AM
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But Rea Vipingo is 95% in sisal... not tea...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#7 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 6:17:33 AM
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@VVS i was merely speculating in my previous post.. my knowledge about agricultural stocks is minimal at best because of my extreme hatred for them...
maybe investors are bullish about the agricultural sector returns this year and are trying to get in early to avoid being caught with their pants down Eh?
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 12:25:32 PM
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@guru - Well... for tea firms I have to agree coz it seems that tea prices have & will remain at higher levels in 2010 vs 2008...
We already know 2009 prices were significantly better than 2008...
If 2010 prices match 2009... then tea firms will continue doing well... the risk is demand for higher wages & input costs...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#9 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 1:45:31 PM
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@VVS i was watching the market today and it doesnt look like this price increase in the agriculturals is sustainable...
i say this because we all know that price increases are supposed to be backed by large volumes traded to get a true picture and justification and that is not happening...

kakuzi traded only 4500
Rea vip traded 18100
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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B.Timer
#10 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 3:21:48 PM
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Eaagads is Agriculture, but they are absent in this bullish streak!
Dunia ni msongamano..
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sparkly
#11 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 3:38:26 PM
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guru267 wrote:
@VVS i was watching the market today and it doesnt look like this price increase in the agriculturals is sustainable...
i say this because we all know that price increases are supposed to be backed by large volumes traded to get a true picture and justification and that is not happening...

kakuzi traded only 4500
Rea vip traded 18100

@guru267 the agricultural are very illiquid, maybe with exception of sasini. 4500 shares for kakuzi is alot as the company trades 100 or 200 every 3 days.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 5:44:51 PM
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guru267 wrote:
@VVS i was watching the market today and it doesnt look like this price increase in the agriculturals is sustainable...
i say this because we all know that price increases are supposed to be backed by large volumes traded to get a true picture and justification and that is not happening...

kakuzi traded only 4500
Rea vip traded 18100

Well, true but there seems to be a shortage of sellers. Williamson had buyer no sellers... I think the sellers who would have sold are long gone...

BTW, 4,500 for Kakuzi is a lot of shares! Very closely held... the top 10 shareholders hardly change. And I am sure many of the smaller shareholders are based in the UK. Wazungu who lived in Kenya or had families in Kenya thus inherited the shares.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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QD
#13 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 8:52:59 AM
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Also the auction of coffee vide the new entity is up so may be sasini can be explained.
The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence
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VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:24:13 AM
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Tea remains the primary cash crop for Sasini though coffee is a huge % too... almost 500mn in coffee revenues...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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ecstacy
#15 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 10:22:49 AM
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Sasini has DOUBLED its coffee processing capacity to 12,000 tonnes of coffee PER HOUR at a time of high coffee prices...also increasing its Savanna coffe houses to 7 from 5...led by the former why would anyone sell now?...
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VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 11:02:53 AM
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ecstacy wrote:
Sasini has DOUBLED its coffee processing capacity to 12,000 tonnes of coffee PER HOUR at a time of high coffee prices...also increasing its Savanna coffe houses to 7 from 5...led by the former why would anyone sell now?...

Stop lying to us... 12,000 tonnes/hour (as you claim) is enough capacity (even if only operated for 1,000 hours/year) to process ALL of Kenya's coffee production!

12,000 tonnes x 1,000 hours = 12,000,000 tonnes
[Kwani, Sasini plans to process Vietnamese coffee too?]

Kenya's total ANNUAL coffee production in 2009 was is 45,000-50,000 tonnes. Even if you add Uganda & Rwanda... it does not exceed 200,000 tonnes.

Add Ethiopia, Tanzania & you are still not at 500,000 tonnes...

So if your claim is correct then SELL sasini coz the massive investment in a 12,000 tonne/hour mill will be a WHITE ELEPHANT...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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sheep
#17 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 11:18:28 AM
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yenyewe hapo ecstasy umeshikwo! The fluctuations of agriculturals make them a no no unless you really understand the dynamics.....financials will be the the land of ten baggers six or so years to come.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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ecstacy
#18 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 12:06:53 PM
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Calm yourself. Material ref: Daily Nation Friday Feb 26, 2010 Page 28.
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VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 12:24:43 PM
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ecstacy wrote:
Calm yourself. Material ref: Daily Nation Friday Feb 26, 2010 Page 28.

Lakini... bwana... seriously...

I mean if that is your excuse... ati... Daily Nation...

The only reason I gave you numbers is to show the absurdity of it... "led by the former why would anyone sell now?" was your opinion ama you want to lay that on the door of Daily Nation too?

Akili ni bure, kutumia ni kazi...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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ecstacy
#20 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 12:32:34 PM
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Joined: 2/26/2008
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@VVS, get the bigger picture... If Sasini has doubled its processing capacity (to whatever figure) at a time of high coffee prices, that is a great thing whichever way you try and discredit it. lol
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