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NIC Bank Results
muganda
#1 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 8:32:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
Hey guys, I've a couple of these shares @60, but the drama has been disappointing so far...

Hear the results were announced today. Any links?
muganda
#2 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 8:38:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
Perhaps spoke too soon. Just seen the following snapshot from Aly-Khan Satchu. Loan loss provision frightening.

Full Year Results Dec 2009 versus Dec 2008:
Total Interest Income 4.425b versus 3.747b = +18.09%
Net Interest Income 2.414b versus 2.015b = +19.80%
Total Non interest Inc 1.461b versus 1.176b = +24.23%

Loan Loss 463.484m vs 194.551m = +138.23%
Staff Costs 938.959m vs 742.171m = +26.515%
Total Operating Exp 2.348b versus 1.707b = +37.55%

PAT 1.085b versus 1.037b = +4.629%
EPS 3.31 versus 3.18 = +4.088%
Dividend 0.50 as per 2008


His Conclusions
A Solid Set of Results where Defence rather than Offence was required. The Staff Costs confirm that NIC is positioned for a return to Growth and the PE Valuation of 10.574 makes it Good Value.
mv_ufanisi
#3 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 8:39:38 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
EPS is up from 3.18 to 3.31.
VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 9:04:47 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
NIC bought the Tanzania bank in 2Q 2009. The profits/gains should start flowing in 2010 as they integrate their operations & client list...

Tanzania is huge and the resources beat Kenya hands down!

Lucky for Kenya, we have the 'better' manpower & entrepreneurial spirit... when we are not killing each other...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mkonomtupu
#5 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 9:23:13 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
That loan loss provision doesn't look good. But it's worth keeping. I got in at 31.75 in January as defensive stock. It still has a strong-hold in instalment and trade finance.
Dizuzu02
#6 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 9:44:57 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/30/2009
Posts: 4
Location: KAMPALA
Applause The directors have recommended a bonus share for every 10 held by 25th March. In my view a share to hold in the long run


gathinga
#7 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 10:01:59 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/30/2006
Posts: 635
@Muganda. Not good at all.

The market expected much more than just 4.6% PBT growth based on their own H1 results.

The 138% loan loss provision growth from previous year is a indictment of their allegedly conservative lending policy. Even equity who have the most liberal policy on lending only registered 2% increase

I like the idea of 1:10 bonus shares which they have now done for the third year in a row, basically meaning they believe in the business and intend to plough back the bulk of the profits rather than pay out dividends..

sheep
#8 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 10:13:59 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
Lets wait for DTB results,they will definitely be better.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 10:35:06 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
The higher the Loan Loss Provisions.. the better... sort of...

Banks that take LLPs are saying, we screwed up... but we will provide for them (they go against Profits) so the problem is taken care of...

@gathinga - Careful... Equity might NOT be providing enough for their Loans... I do not know how good/poor Equity's policies are for NPLs but I have been in the market for many years...

KCB used to 'show' great results... lakini they were fake! When the crap hit the fan, the losses (due to LLPs & write-offs) were enormous!

It took a Rights Issue to re-capitalize the bank. And a lot of patience & 'massaging' of the books to keep it 'solvent'.

Same for NBK... actually, even worse!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 10:38:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
Microlenders & bad debts... All is not roses...

http://www.wazua.co.ke/f....aspx?g=posts&t=5955
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
gathinga
#11 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 11:40:48 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/30/2006
Posts: 635
Loan book '000 provision '000 % of lbook
BBK 101,485 1,282 1%
NIC 32,511 463 1%
Equity 63,378 1,035 2%
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 12:29:53 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
gathinga wrote:
Loan book '000 provision '000 % of lbook
BBK 101,485 1,282 1%
NIC 32,511 463 1%
Equity 63,378 1,035 2%

NPLs & LLPs wud be great...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
gathinga
#13 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 12:38:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/30/2006
Posts: 635
gathinga wrote:
Loan book '000 provision '000 % of lbook
BBK 101,485 1,282 1%
NIC 32,511 463 1%
Equity 63,378 1,035 2%


for better view
It appears everyone was providing to make it 1-2% of loan book.

Are these provisions tax deductible expenses? This may explain the behavior of some banks in the area of provisions
Wa_ithaka
#14 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 2:05:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Very ordinary set of results. NIC is small but diversified and has a fairly recession-rpoof loan portfolio which means one would expecty a consistent 25% year on year growth. Capital is now wafer-thin so I think the bonus share is a bit stupid. Would have been better to do a rights issue.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 2:41:06 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
Wa_ithaka wrote:
Very ordinary set of results. NIC is small but diversified and has a fairly recession-rpoof loan portfolio which means one would expecty a consistent 25% year on year growth. Capital is now wafer-thin so I think the bonus share is a bit stupid. Would have been better to do a rights issue.

Huh? How does a bonus change their capital structure from a scenario where they did not?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 2:42:29 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
@gathinga - Loan Loss Provisions ARE tax-deductible... but also a prudent measure for providing for (often) non-collectible loans...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Wa_ithaka
#17 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 7:37:47 AM
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Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Vvs-that was exact pt, the bonus share issue has been done in lieu of the low dividend. A more intelligent move would have been to do a rights issue.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
guru267
#18 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 7:57:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Wa_ithaka wrote:
Vvs-that was exact pt, the bonus share issue has been done in lieu of the low dividend. A more intelligent move would have been to do a rights issue.


Why would a rights issue be more intelligent??? a rights issue requires share holders to inject more capital into the comapany which they may not do and its harder to get approval for it
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Gordon Gekko
#19 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 8:28:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@vvs, loan provisions are taxable only if they are specific provisions. General provisions, which I suspect these are, are not tax deductable. Also, when soecific provisions are finally recovered, the tax earlier relieved becomes payable.
Wa_ithaka
#20 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 9:17:18 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Vvs-are u especially slow? Please re-re-read my first comment on NIC Posted: Wednesday, February 24, 2010 5:05:26 PM.
I said NIC needs capital. hence a rights issue is better than a bonus.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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