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Kenya Economy Watch
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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The other day Tony Blair was in town.... "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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I hope the incoming governor will not be from IMF or WB school pool lest the country ends up trapped with bretton woods debt baggage, which will squeeze the economy. http://www.businessdaily...16/-/fwijl9/-/index.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2010 Posts: 625
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[quote=hisah]I hope the incoming governor will not be from IMF or WB school pool lest the country ends up trapped with bretton woods debt baggage, which will squeeze the economy. http://www.businessdaily...6/-/fwijl9/-/index.html[/quote] Good point World Bank, IMF are a colonial relic. They will screw developing countries over. Even their Western staff in Kenya earn much more than local staff doing the same job. They explain it in all kinds of twisted ways but it's a legacy of colonization. At the back of their minds, they're thinking these guys are not so smart. Kenya needs a visionary leader who can work with a free hand confidently and able to engage Asia strongly. Establishing a regional clearing house for the Yuan/Rupee for example would be a great move forward. The CBK governor should ideally be someone who is not intimidated by IMF/World Bank types. Someone whose credentials also intimidate those guys. Luckily it seems we have a pretty good crop of potentials who should be able to stand their ground.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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I must say I'm between shocked and impressed that KES has put up a steely show against the USD. Globally the USD has been on a dizzy rally since last year and going strong post QE end. Most emerging market currencies have been crashed by the forceful USD strength. Commodities too have been taken to the cleaners as well just like the currencies. That KE eurobond was a lucky charm. Otherwise USDKES would likely be trading above 120 and NSE would be in the selling dustbin. How long KES artificial strength vs USD lasts is the million dollar question. But should KES weaken rapidly the NSE party will be overdone and the econ will feel that nasty effect. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/14/2011 Posts: 661
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hisah wrote:I must say I'm between shocked and impressed that KES has put up a steely show against the USD. Globally the USD has been on a dizzy rally since last year and going strong post QE end. Most emerging market currencies have been crashed by the forceful USD strength. Commodities too have been taken to the cleaners as well just like the currencies. That KE eurobond was a lucky charm. Otherwise USDKES would likely be trading above 120 and NSE would be in the selling dustbin.
How long KES artificial strength vs USD lasts is the million dollar question. But should KES weaken rapidly the NSE party will be overdone and the econ will feel that nasty effect. Effect already felt in Nigeria with Africa's Richest Man loosing half of his fortune due to currency depreciation in Nigeria, The 57-year-old billionaire reportedly lost $10.3 billion in the last one year. Dangote was worth $25 billion in 2014. However, he lost more than the half of his fortune and is worth much less at the moment. The owner of the “Dangote Group” suffered heavy loss due to a reduced demand for cement and the depreciation of the Naira. The Nigerian Naira is at 200 to the dollar. Dangote is the biggest loser among the richest people in Nigeria due to the depreciation in the Nigerian Naira. His stock prices fell and he lost more than $7.8 billion of his fortune since February. Dangote was worth $21.6 billion on Nov. 7, 2014. However, he lost $4.4 billion more in the next four months. Many companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange suffered disastrous outcomes in the last few weeks. Several companies like Dangote Cement, Transcorp, Zenith Bank and United Bank for Africa hit one-year-lows as oil prices fell. Africa's largest manufacturer of cement, Dangote Cement, shed nearly 40 per cent of its market value since November. Dangote also lost more than $230 million in paper value on his stakes in publicly-traded Dangote Flour, Dangote Sugar and National Salt Company of Nigeria. http://au.ibtimes.com/af...ciation-nigeria-1428409
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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Thiong'o wrote:hisah wrote:I must say I'm between shocked and impressed that KES has put up a steely show against the USD. Globally the USD has been on a dizzy rally since last year and going strong post QE end. Most emerging market currencies have been crashed by the forceful USD strength. Commodities too have been taken to the cleaners as well just like the currencies. That KE eurobond was a lucky charm. Otherwise USDKES would likely be trading above 120 and NSE would be in the selling dustbin.
How long KES artificial strength vs USD lasts is the million dollar question. But should KES weaken rapidly the NSE party will be overdone and the econ will feel that nasty effect. Effect already felt in Nigeria with Africa's Richest Man loosing half of his fortune due to currency depreciation in Nigeria, The 57-year-old billionaire reportedly lost $10.3 billion in the last one year. Dangote was worth $25 billion in 2014. However, he lost more than the half of his fortune and is worth much less at the moment. The owner of the “Dangote Group” suffered heavy loss due to a reduced demand for cement and the depreciation of the Naira. The Nigerian Naira is at 200 to the dollar. Dangote is the biggest loser among the richest people in Nigeria due to the depreciation in the Nigerian Naira. His stock prices fell and he lost more than $7.8 billion of his fortune since February. Dangote was worth $21.6 billion on Nov. 7, 2014. However, he lost $4.4 billion more in the next four months. Many companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange suffered disastrous outcomes in the last few weeks. Several companies like Dangote Cement, Transcorp, Zenith Bank and United Bank for Africa hit one-year-lows as oil prices fell. Africa's largest manufacturer of cement, Dangote Cement, shed nearly 40 per cent of its market value since November. Dangote also lost more than $230 million in paper value on his stakes in publicly-traded Dangote Flour, Dangote Sugar and National Salt Company of Nigeria. http://au.ibtimes.com/af...ciation-nigeria-1428409
One could argue that Nigeria has been done in by the price of oil. Whats happening to the Usd is mostly a result of the collapse of the international oil price. net importers of oil ala USA are having a major party with improved BOP. Kenya happens to fall in the same basket and thats why of late the news is awash with info on how well the Kenya economy is doing and "forecasts of it leading the African growth". "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/14/2011 Posts: 661
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:Thiong'o wrote:hisah wrote:I must say I'm between shocked and impressed that KES has put up a steely show against the USD. Globally the USD has been on a dizzy rally since last year and going strong post QE end. Most emerging market currencies have been crashed by the forceful USD strength. Commodities too have been taken to the cleaners as well just like the currencies. That KE eurobond was a lucky charm. Otherwise USDKES would likely be trading above 120 and NSE would be in the selling dustbin.
How long KES artificial strength vs USD lasts is the million dollar question. But should KES weaken rapidly the NSE party will be overdone and the econ will feel that nasty effect. Effect already felt in Nigeria with Africa's Richest Man loosing half of his fortune due to currency depreciation in Nigeria, The 57-year-old billionaire reportedly lost $10.3 billion in the last one year. Dangote was worth $25 billion in 2014. However, he lost more than the half of his fortune and is worth much less at the moment. The owner of the “Dangote Group” suffered heavy loss due to a reduced demand for cement and the depreciation of the Naira. The Nigerian Naira is at 200 to the dollar. Dangote is the biggest loser among the richest people in Nigeria due to the depreciation in the Nigerian Naira. His stock prices fell and he lost more than $7.8 billion of his fortune since February. Dangote was worth $21.6 billion on Nov. 7, 2014. However, he lost $4.4 billion more in the next four months. Many companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange suffered disastrous outcomes in the last few weeks. Several companies like Dangote Cement, Transcorp, Zenith Bank and United Bank for Africa hit one-year-lows as oil prices fell. Africa's largest manufacturer of cement, Dangote Cement, shed nearly 40 per cent of its market value since November. Dangote also lost more than $230 million in paper value on his stakes in publicly-traded Dangote Flour, Dangote Sugar and National Salt Company of Nigeria. http://au.ibtimes.com/af...ciation-nigeria-1428409
One could argue that Nigeria has been done in by the price of oil. Whats happening to the Usd is mostly a result of the collapse of the international oil price. net importers of oil ala USA are having a major party with improved BOP. Kenya happens to fall in the same basket and thats why of late the news is awash with info on how well the Kenya economy is doing and "forecasts of it leading the African growth". @ Obi 1 Kanobi, oil price is a major contributor and key players in the industry (large oil companies) other than governments, are gaining support from an unlikely source as they confront the industry’s worst slump since the financial crisis ie lower oil prices. They have sway in commodities trading, largely unknown outside the industry and set to pay off in 2015 as the bear market allows traders to generate higher returns by storing cheap oil today to sell at higher prices later and using lower prices to make more bets with the same capital. From dealing floors that resemble the operations of Wall Street banks in cities including Geneva, London, Houston, Chicago and Singapore, oil trading could provide BP, Shell and Total with an edge over U.S. rivals Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., which sell their own production, but largely eschew pure trading as a means of generating profits. “We’re in a very strong commodity trading position,” Shell CFO Simon Henry said in a call with analysts on a Jan. 29. “Our ability to take advantage of volatility is some protection to mitigate the low price environment.” The companies also make significant bets in the derivatives commodities markets. Such is the scale of BP and Shell in the financial market that both are registered swap dealers in the U.S. under the Dodd-Frank act. Together with agricultural trader Cargill Inc., they’re the only non-financial firms among nearly 50 banks, insurers, brokers and others registered as swap dealers. http://finance.yahoo.com...ng-slump-084926157.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/14/2011 Posts: 661
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China Identifies Kenya As Its African Industrial Hub Kenya is poised to beat out Ethiopia and Tanzania as China's preferred African industrial nerve centre owing to its reforming business environment and incentive framework. A Chinese delegation on a fact-finding mission of the three countries' industrial readiness says Kenya fits the bill for China's ambition for an African-Chinese Co-operation model with Chinese companies through industrial investment. http://www.bernama.com.m...ewsworld.php?id=1116428
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Mobile banking offers the best tool to drive national savings for growth [JOSHUA OIGARA] www.standardmedia.co.ke/...kenya-s-national-savings
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/14/2011 Posts: 661
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Kenya's Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) has joined the United Nations Sustainable Stock Exchanges (SSE) to promote transparency and performance on corporate sustainability practices, it said Tuesday. By joining the SSE, which was launched by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in 2009, the NSE has become its 18th member globally, and the fourth in Africa alongside the Egyptian Exchange, the Nigerian Stock Exchange and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. http://shanghaidaily.com...e_xinhua.aspx?id=272771
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Banks defy CBK, load profit margins on cost of loansThe struggle continues. The new CBK head had better be pro bankers or banking stocks land in the sellside bucket... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mv_ufanisi wrote:Good point World Bank, IMF are a colonial relic. They will screw developing countries over. Even their Western staff in Kenya earn much more than local staff doing the same job. They explain it in all kinds of twisted ways but it's a legacy of colonization. At the back of their minds, they're thinking these guys are not so smart. Kenya needs a visionary leader who can work with a free hand confidently and able to engage Asia strongly. Establishing a regional clearing house for the Yuan/Rupee for example would be a great move forward. The CBK governor should ideally be someone who is not intimidated by IMF/World Bank types. Someone whose credentials also intimidate those guys. Luckily it seems we have a pretty good crop of potentials who should be able to stand their ground. Top economists locked out of central bank jobsQuote:Prominent economists at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were locked out of the race for three top positions at the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) despite their long experience in policy making.
John Randa, a senior economist at World Bank, and Rose Ngugi, an adviser in the office of executive director for the Africa Group at the IMF in Washington, were among those who failed to make the short-list for interviews. Seems my prayers will be answered $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Indeed a solid CBK head is required to tame the bankers as well as consolidation of the banks to tame consumerism lending and grow industrial lending. http://mobile.nation.co....ml/-/gdgqh8/-/index.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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[quote=hisah]Indeed a solid CBK head is required to tame the bankers as well as consolidation of the banks to tame consumerism lending and grow industrial lending. http://mobile.nation.co....l/-/gdgqh8/-/index.html[/quote] This artcle is superb Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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The list of CBK nominees is worrying, the career civil servants shortlisted are not right for the job. I hope Uhunye having interest in the anking sector is well versed on its needs and atleast his personal interest will ensure the new man/woman at the helm is atleast as competent as Njuguna Ndung'u was. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2011 Posts: 207 Location: humu humu
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I respect kaindi and frequently read his articles. however reading his very first analysis on the cbk position i noticed that he was promoting some candidates in the banking sector. Well thats fine..Another article i rem him suggesting that treasury (and perhaps cbk i cant recall exactly) should be headed by accountants and not economists..mmm.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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M-Pesa customers get access to seven African countries Quote:Vodafone has entered into a deal with MTN that will see their respective mobile money customers transfer money to each other across the seven Eastern African countries. The agreement now enables convenient sending of cash between M-Pesa customers in Kenya, Tanzania, DRC and Mozambique, and MTN Mobile Money customers in Uganda, Rwanda and Zambia. Quote:“After successful launches in Ivory Coast and Benin in West Africa, we are looking enthusiastically at the collaboration with Vodafone in East Africa. Together, we aim to build a scalable model that will accelerate remittance roll-out across the continent,” said MTN Group head of mobile financial services, Serigne Dioum. http://www.businessdaily...4/-/ur4epu/-/index.html
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Kenya will be the world's economy of the 2020s. Make sure you have bought the right assets before then. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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Mainat wrote:Kenya will be the world's economy of the 2020s.
Make sure you have bought the right assets before then. very interesting assertion...help a brother out @Mainat. What specific assets?? Land perhaps? KPLC shares etc Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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-Land near urban areas -housing -commercial agriculture -NSE, but you need to be selective since parastatals will only ever get good if GoK is not corrupt or tribal-based Sehemu ndio nyumba
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