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Rental houses- one of the worst investments
heri
#21 Posted : Tuesday, April 14, 2015 10:54:07 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
iris wrote:
heri wrote:
The optimist wrote:
heri wrote:
i have concluded that building houses for rent is one of the worst investments other than for those people who do money laundering

i know this may have been discsused under mortgage topic but would appreciate anyone who can share their experience

With Ksh 15M one can build 8 houses of 2 bedrooms each giving a rent of about sh 22k hence kshs 176K per month assuming 100% occupancy

after monthly agents costs, security, garbage, etc you can end up with net rent of Kshs between 140-150K

However, factoring in financing costs. assuming the kshs 15M was borrowed at 12% for a period of 15 years , the total mortgage repayment is Kshs 181K. Monthly interest alone is kshs 97K

Theoretically therefore one would have to pay about kshs 40K each month from the pocket


The returns are very low and to me i fail to understand how rental houses can ever be considered to be a business!

the actual return on the investment is about 3% per year ignoring the houses value appreciatiation

Quite an eye opener. I think rentals are better off when not financed.


@optimist, whether the money is borrowed or not is not really the issue since either way, you still need to factor in the cost of capital when evaluating the return on the investment. Even if you did not borrow the money, you would be forgoing a return of say 10% from just buying bonds with the Kshs 15M as an example


@Heri, what you are not taking into account is that quite a big %age of people build incrementally; perhaps sacrificing weekend drinking money for cement. The money may eventually add up to 15M, but that same person would not have the discipline to save that amount of money if s/he was not constructing.


i guess that is true, what am saying is it is also important to actually critically look at the returns
heri
#22 Posted : Tuesday, April 14, 2015 10:58:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
Gathige wrote:
@heri, every investor is assumed to make a rational choice in the choice of the investment vehicle that is preferred.eg whereas a young and information savvy investor may opt for stocks based on ability to analyze publicly available information and intelligence on companies, a retiree with a huge retirement payoff may settle for rentals to "park" his cash and release it in monthly bits as rental income with minimal hussles.

Borrowing to finance rentals esp with the current interest rate regime generates negative returns in most cases.


That is very true. But i wonder whether all the houses i see being sold for rent are bought by retirees.

I agree every investor has to make his /her choice
Dawnwoods
#23 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 12:34:47 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/22/2014
Posts: 56
Greatwall, Thitifini and Gathige excellent contribution!! Great Topic @heri
UpcomingPaperChaser
#24 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 1:02:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/20/2015
Posts: 489
Location: Nairobi
What an interesting topic!

Another example, i have a lady friend who is a member of staff at Barclays Bank, she took a loan of 5 million to buy an apartment in Pangani area of Nairobi with a monthly rent of 30k. Assuming that the loan repayment is so flexible and that she will only be allowed to use the income from rent to offset the loan,(thats the 30k), it then means that, at an interest rate of 5%, she will be using all the money she gets as rent to pay the loan for a period of 17 years!!!!! she will start enjoying her rent at the 18th year, if at all she will still be alive!!

Example 2: in Zimmerman there is what we call Toa-Tugawe where 10 people contribute in equal share to buy a 50 by 100 plot. The whole plot goes for abt 10 million, so this means each buyer will contribute 1 million to own one tenth of an eight (simply, the 50 by 100 plot is divided equally among the buyers). with this, you can construct 4 units of one bedroom each with an income of between 10 - 12k per month. To build one unit, as per local estimates, costs about 700k. So total invested amount = (1 million for land and 2.8 million for construction) equals almost 4 million. If u had taken a loan at an interest of 15%, you will be required to repay the loan for about 120 months! 10 years, and this assumes that all the income goes to repaying the loan. So you will have to suffer for 10 years before you realize the fruits of your labor.

But depending with the nature of the building, its functionality, design, location and finishes, you could get potential buyers within several months of constructing the houses, and if you can manage to sell them all within, lets say 2 years after construction, you might get an overall profit of 25-30%, so this means that after selling your investments valued at 15 million, you might end up having between 18-20 million. After clearing your 15 million loan, you will have like 3 or 4 million on top!!

People still opt to invest in rental properties with loans because its the only investment that guarantees returns, regardless of how little they could be. Unlike other investments where you have to always watch over, you can have rental properties then go and live in Jamaica as you wait for your meager monthly returns. Farming is risky, retail business, wholesale business, hotel industry, stocks all posses a form of risk which doesn't exist in rental units.
Enjoy every moment of your life, you never know when your time will come.
Rongla
#25 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 2:21:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/3/2008
Posts: 101
I guess the Get rich quick mentality is the biggest problem with Kenyans and its one of the reasons why We, as a country will never develop.
If we all close the property development shop and go into stocks, what will happen to the stocks then? Isnt it not the interest on loans and mortgages that is contributing to the mega profits the banks are making and the subsequent dividends.
The cement, paint, steel etc that goes into the mortgage funded projects that has seen major profits and dividends announcements. The new electricity connections that has returned KPLC to profitability.The millions of jobs the construction industry has created and the ripple effect it has had livelihoods, incomes, Crime reduction etc.
It may be the "worst investment" but it is the engine that drives the "Best investments" . Without them ( rental houses) Nairobi's face will be different ( Will maybe look like Jericho Maringo or worse still, Kibera) and So will be the NSE.
Investments should not only bring in profits but should have positive social and environmental impacts.
We are profit MAD
murchr
#26 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 3:15:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
heri wrote:
iris wrote:
heri wrote:
The optimist wrote:
heri wrote:
i have concluded that building houses for rent is one of the worst investments other than for those people who do money laundering

i know this may have been discsused under mortgage topic but would appreciate anyone who can share their experience

With Ksh 15M one can build 8 houses of 2 bedrooms each giving a rent of about sh 22k hence kshs 176K per month assuming 100% occupancy

after monthly agents costs, security, garbage, etc you can end up with net rent of Kshs between 140-150K

However, factoring in financing costs. assuming the kshs 15M was borrowed at 12% for a period of 15 years , the total mortgage repayment is Kshs 181K. Monthly interest alone is kshs 97K

Theoretically therefore one would have to pay about kshs 40K each month from the pocket


The returns are very low and to me i fail to understand how rental houses can ever be considered to be a business!

the actual return on the investment is about 3% per year ignoring the houses value appreciatiation

Quite an eye opener. I think rentals are better off when not financed.


@optimist, whether the money is borrowed or not is not really the issue since either way, you still need to factor in the cost of capital when evaluating the return on the investment. Even if you did not borrow the money, you would be forgoing a return of say 10% from just buying bonds with the Kshs 15M as an example


@Heri, what you are not taking into account is that quite a big %age of people build incrementally; perhaps sacrificing weekend drinking money for cement. The money may eventually add up to 15M, but that same person would not have the discipline to save that amount of money if s/he was not constructing.


i guess that is true, what am saying is it is also important to actually critically look at the returns


If your rental property is giving you 3% returns and a stock investment is giving you 3% div yield...which investment option would you prefer?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Mainat
#27 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 6:40:13 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Rearry?
Until you understand cashflow, thou shalt never call thyself an investor.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
Boris Boyka
#28 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 7:11:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
Rongla wrote:
I guess the Get rich quick mentality is the biggest problem with Kenyans and its one of the reasons why We, as a country will never develop.
If we all close the property development shop and go into stocks, what will happen to the stocks then? Isnt it not the interest on loans and mortgages that is contributing to the mega profits the banks are making and the subsequent dividends.
The cement, paint, steel etc that goes into the mortgage funded projects that has seen major profits and dividends announcements. The new electricity connections that has returned KPLC to profitability.The millions of jobs the construction industry has created and the ripple effect it has had livelihoods, incomes, Crime reduction etc.
It may be the "worst investment" but it is the engine that drives the "Best investments" . Without them ( rental houses) Nairobi's face will be different ( Will maybe look like Jericho Maringo or worse still, Kibera) and So will be the NSE.
Investments should not only bring in profits but should have positive social and environmental impacts.
We are profit MAD

Applause Applause Applause @heri take note here!
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
The optimist
#29 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 8:01:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/14/2010
Posts: 521
Location: Nairobi
Boris Boyka wrote:
Rongla wrote:
I guess the Get rich quick mentality is the biggest problem with Kenyans and its one of the reasons why We, as a country will never develop.
If we all close the property development shop and go into stocks, what will happen to the stocks then? Isnt it not the interest on loans and mortgages that is contributing to the mega profits the banks are making and the subsequent dividends.
The cement, paint, steel etc that goes into the mortgage funded projects that has seen major profits and dividends announcements. The new electricity connections that has returned KPLC to profitability.The millions of jobs the construction industry has created and the ripple effect it has had livelihoods, incomes, Crime reduction etc.
It may be the "worst investment" but it is the engine that drives the "Best investments" . Without them ( rental houses) Nairobi's face will be different ( Will maybe look like Jericho Maringo or worse still, Kibera) and So will be the NSE.
Investments should not only bring in profits but should have positive social and environmental impacts.
We are profit MAD

Applause Applause Applause @heri take note here!

The mere fact that rental income supports an ecosystem does not make it a better investment to the owner. The owner/Landlord benefits only when the returns are high.
heri
#30 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 8:05:03 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
Boris Boyka wrote:
Rongla wrote:
I guess the Get rich quick mentality is the biggest problem with Kenyans and its one of the reasons why We, as a country will never develop.
If we all close the property development shop and go into stocks, what will happen to the stocks then? Isnt it not the interest on loans and mortgages that is contributing to the mega profits the banks are making and the subsequent dividends.
The cement, paint, steel etc that goes into the mortgage funded projects that has seen major profits and dividends announcements. The new electricity connections that has returned KPLC to profitability.The millions of jobs the construction industry has created and the ripple effect it has had livelihoods, incomes, Crime reduction etc.
It may be the "worst investment" but it is the engine that drives the "Best investments" . Without them ( rental houses) Nairobi's face will be different ( Will maybe look like Jericho Maringo or worse still, Kibera) and So will be the NSE.
Investments should not only bring in profits but should have positive social and environmental impacts.
We are profit MAD

Applause Applause Applause @heri take note here!



Guys i am not at all advocating for even one moment that we all stop borrowing to buy or build rental houses. Far from it

i am giving my own experience to share what i have experienced and also allow us to discuss. Most important is to allow us appreciate the investment and the returns one can expect

i have constructed and God willing i will do it again and again. I also have shares and fully appreciate that banks stocks give me good returns by lending at those ridiculous rates ( eg CFC which is 50% of my shares portifolio has given me 98% returns after holding for 2 years)

For those advocating for investments that bring positive social and environmental impacts- well that is a different angle to look at it . Am looking at this from purely personal point of view of how i appraise the investment
streetwise
#31 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 8:05:45 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
I read somewhere that you need to do that which you are passionate at and you will succeed. Even running a football team is profitable if you are passionate enough.
heri
#32 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 8:11:21 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
Mainat wrote:
Rearry?
Until you understand cashflow, thou shalt never call thyself an investor.


@mainat, what i understand about cashflow is that investing the Kshs 15M in rental properties gives one a monthly cashinflow of about Kshs 140K which is a very good thing as this gives you power to borrow and power to do other investments etc

also if the same Kshs15M is used to buy land in kitengela and wait for it to appreciate with a view to disposing it in 5-10 years, there will be no cashinflow

But also realise that if the Ksh15M was borrowed, there will be a cashoutflow of kshs 181K per month to finance the mortgage

Cashflow is ofcourse very important but i think one cannot divorce cashflow from return on investment
Bigchick
#33 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 8:23:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/8/2013
Posts: 4,068
Location: At Large.
My take:-for middle to upper class housing,then it could be a "bad investment"

But for low end housing,returns are good.

Example:-The same 15M will buy you a 33 by 66 around Embakassi for 5M then use 10M to do at least 4 floors of bedsitters 8 per floor.
Total units 32.Rental income 9000 per unit
Total 9000×32=288,000.

There is a possibility of doing 40 units(5 floors)hence Kes360,000 or even 48(6floors)hence Kes 432,000 though not advisable.Hizi ndio zina anguka.

So for me its low investment,high returns but of course high risk too.
Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
heri
#34 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 8:34:19 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
Bigchick wrote:
My take:-for middle to upper class housing,then it could be a "bad investment"

But for low end housing,returns are good.

Example:-The same 15M will buy you a 33 by 66 around Embakassi for 5M then use 10M to do at least 4 floors of bedsitters 8 per floor.
Total units 32.Rental income 9000 per unit
Total 9000×32=288,000.

There is a possibility of doing 40 units(5 floors)hence Kes360,000 or even 48(6floors)hence Kes 432,000 though not advisable.Hizi ndio zina anguka.

So for me its low investment,high returns but of course high risk too.


This one i agree the returns are much higher. i have seen those houses and even know someone who did exactly as you say

Only that some people ofcourse will accuse you of contributing to development of slums buy squeezing families/people in such small houses. i have seen some of those houses in pipeline area where some units do not even have ventilation, sewer flowig freely
Mainat
#35 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 11:50:20 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Heri-let me try another tack. Would you do the same investment if you had Ksh15m of your own?
Sehemu ndio nyumba
heri
#36 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 12:12:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
Mainat wrote:
Heri-let me try another tack. Would you do the same investment if you had Ksh15m of your own?


Yes i could ofcourse after considering other available investment opportunities

But for me the issue is not whether i have Kshs15M in cash or am borrowing it

The issue is either way, i need to factor in the cost of capital to properly appraise the investment returns. I think most people do not consider the cost of capital when looking at returns

ofcourse for example if am borrowing but at 5% like bankers or civil servants, then the returns dramatically improve
Mainat
#37 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 12:20:57 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
You are paying 180 and receiving 140, correct. So what is your return then?
You are not paying 15m today, correct, but 180k? What will 15m cash outlay today be worth in 15/20yrs.

Put it another way, if you had borrowed 15m in 2002 for rental house building...
Sehemu ndio nyumba
heri
#38 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 12:54:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
Mainat wrote:
You are paying 180 and receiving 140, correct. So what is your return then?
You are not paying 15m today, correct, but 180k? What will 15m cash outlay today be worth in 15/20yrs.

Put it another way, if you had borrowed 15m in 2002 for rental house building...


am not clear what you mean here. The return here would a negative 22%
SG
#39 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 1:10:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/5/2008
Posts: 30
Mainat wrote:
You are paying 180 and receiving 140, correct. So what is your return then?
You are not paying 15m today, correct, but 180k? What will 15m cash outlay today be worth in 15/20yrs.

Put it another way, if you had borrowed 15m in 2002 for rental house building...


Make it simple for Heri, 180k includes principal + interest. When computing the ROE, consider the interest only which is your cost for the loan.
luttz
#40 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 1:15:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/18/2008
Posts: 377
Quite an enlightening discussion. I am building without finance and have been doing the numbers and keep wondering if am doing the right thing. My consolation is that am looking at early retirement and hoping that the returns will take care of my expenses at that time.
"You've never lived until you've almost died; for those who have fought for it, life has a flavour the protected will never know."
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