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RichVee
#1 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 10:50:28 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/26/2010
Posts: 124
I was the perfect candidate for beginners luck, having bought shares using no brain activity at all, except for knowledge of some companies that i was interested in.I would buy, then completely forget about my purchase, and the next time i would check, the prices were high!

Except for a few cases. Looking back, I have been able to see where I made some mistakes - like buying stocks when the prices were very high (I did not look at the history of the share, to tell where the prices were headed- up or down )

So a quick Q. Has there been a trend on NSE for prices to go down around Feb/March, and what can this trend be credited to? ( my assumption is based on year 2009...
Tired of mediocrity. Am going to the very top!
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guru267
#2 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 11:14:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@Richvee i would like to say that you are very mistaken...
there is no trend that makes share prices drop during feb/march...
the worst of the financial crisis hit the world at the beginning of 2009 and most stock markets around the world including the NSE fell to their lowest around march 8th-11th and that was the reason for last years fall..
after those days any one could have put money in any counter and they would be up at least 50%..

but beware when a market recovers like it has now one should pick ones stocks with extreme CAUTION and CARE or else one will be burned..

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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RichVee
#3 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 11:28:39 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/26/2010
Posts: 124
guru267 wrote:
@Richvee i would like to say that you are very mistaken...



he he he. I just love those trend lines. Now ofcourse I know better - like I said, I am doing more analysis, plus picking on braincells like yourssmile
Tired of mediocrity. Am going to the very top!
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Much Know
#4 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 11:37:12 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,579
There is a trend called january stock effect where stocks rally in jan, it has failed less than ten times in the last hundred years, now think how this would impact feb and march.
Ras Kienyeji Man
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guru267
#5 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 11:49:51 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@Muchknow
i know about the january trend.. it happens because most traders and investors are trying to make up for lost time in december and trying to take positions for the year...
but i'm not aware of this having any negative effect on feb and march.. please explain???
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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mkonomtupu
#6 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 12:12:35 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
It has everything to do with the government budget. A lot of business depends on the government spending. In Feb/March usually the government goes for the supplementary budget most ministries having spent the allocations. In April to May ministries want to exhaust the allocation so a lot of cash in the economy. The period Aug-Oct also has a dip. That's also the period when armed robberies increase. If you are in jua-kali you notice some periods when people are flush with cash.
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guru267
#7 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 12:30:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@mkonomtupu
i've failed to understand how your explanation affetcts the STOCK EXCHANGE... does the govt allocate money for buying shares in its budget??? your explanation has alot to do with the general level of economic activity in kenya but nothing to do with the stock exchange....


Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Much Know
#8 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 12:36:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,579
@guru, i would expect a downward correction at least in feb, just thinking ama?
Ras Kienyeji Man
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McReggae
#9 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 12:42:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
guru267,
The govt suppliers get paid and some of them put this money into stocks, think mkonomtupu was thinking in that line!!!
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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mkonomtupu
#10 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 12:47:21 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Guru, MJ said kenyans have peculiar calling habits. The same for trading. A lot of cash is pumped in almost the same time each year. If the government pays its bills people have a little to spare and the cash find itself into the stock exchange. Fund managers a.k.a institutional investors also rebalance portfolio and close their books in almost similar fashion. There are always periods when it's good season to enter the market when people are cash-strapped.
I don't have hard statistics but i know when not to chase my pending invoices.
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