VituVingiSana wrote:Kausha wrote:David was the biggest industry victim of the triton saga. He cargoes stuck on high sea for two months for lack of ullage.So he can see ahead. Remember fuel outages of 2007 to 08.
Infact prices dropping is what he is worried about.That's assuming the cargo does not have other owners. It looks to me as somebody betting on contago. If prices drop that cargo will block ullage and cock up product availability. If it works its enough incentive to continue.
Contango contracts defer delivery. this may be a normal backwardation play by Vivo by booking (cheap) ullage while waiting for prices to rise by 14 April.
is it for diesel or petrol?
I expect diesel prices to increase in April based on a very small increase granted by ERC in March. Petrol may not see the same increase Apr vs Mar.
If KK has a ship on the high seas which can't offload coz Vivo has blocked storage then we will all pay the (higher) price to the benefit of Vivo.
Who owns Vivo?
This fiasco is several weeks old, this is more than what meets the eye.
Ullage allocation is always a zero sum, that's if Vivo gets more product some OMC(s) somewhere will have to loose the same quantities of that particular cargo.
More cargo allocation=more sales=more market share=more ullage allocation=
more subsequent cargo allocation. And there it cargoes, and in other words it is a collusion to give Vivo undue advantage, and is being egoistic on the part of Vivo (Igathe) to the detriment of the other marketers.
A disclaimer: I don't work for KK or ERC for that matter as pointed out by someone earlier. Infact if Vivo was on the NSE I would gladly invest with them.
Just in the spirit of wazua, on matters where am no layman.
Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11