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NSE and the unfolding political drama
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cnn
#61 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 8:10:49 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
a buying opportunity,but calling the bottom always tricky.NSE looks harsh for short term investors.I am actively seeking KQ @42 if the political decibels rise,foreign investor support keeping it up.
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VituVingiSana
#62 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 8:14:35 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
cnn wrote:
a buying opportunity,but calling the bottom always tricky.NSE looks harsh for short term investors.I am actively seeking KQ @42 if the political decibels rise,foreign investor support keeping it up.

KQ can suffer greatly if the shyte hits the fan. At 2009 AGM, naikuni made a point of saying he hopes coalition lasts...

KQ suffered huge during PEV 2008. Tourists cancel, fuel shortages, fewer folks fly coz getting to the airports is harder, business slows down, trade slows down...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#63 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 8:59:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
since watching the news yest i've come up with a couple of entry points

mumias 8.2
kenya re 11.5
saf com 4.5
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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2012
#64 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 9:07:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:

mumias 8.2
kenya re 11.5
saf com 4.5


@ guru,

I realised I'm much happier when shares go low and I add than when they go up and I sell. I hope Mumias could hit 7/-. Do you see that happening? Safaricom at 4.5, swear I'm take a loan to buy.

BBI will solve it :)
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mkonomtupu
#65 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 9:18:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Guru, safaricom 3.8, Mumias 8.
kenya re??? nope i don't reinsurance business
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VituVingiSana
#66 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 9:20:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
Mumias cud hit 8.20 if the folks in RV get nasty again. Remember to get to Nairobi, the sugar has to pass thru RV whether by train (kibera???) or road.

KenRe - I do not follow.

Safcom - Hmmm... 4.50 is unlikely in the near future... and sales actually rise during matata... I am looking at 5/-
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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ecstacy
#67 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 9:29:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
before they resolve whose is allowed to eat what, I am keenly checking how low HFCK, MSC, Kenya-Re, SCOM and KenolKobil will be when the PM lands, tells us he is quitting or whatever then get in!
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2012
#68 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 9:39:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
ecstacy wrote:
before they resolve whose is allowed to eat what, I am keenly checking how low HFCK, MSC, Kenya-Re, SCOM and KenolKobil will be when the PM lands, tells us he is quitting or whatever then get in!


The PM can't quit. That's like admitting defeat. According to the accord if one coalition partner withdraws the other partner takes it all.

BBI will solve it :)
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VituVingiSana
#69 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 9:57:08 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
In the meantime, the ups & downs continue...

IMHO, most MPs will not want to go to the polls... they will lose their seats... and they know it...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#70 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 5:38:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:

KenRe - I do not follow.

Safcom - Hmmm... 4.50 is unlikely in the near future... and sales actually rise during matata... I am looking at 5/-


@VVS i agree the entry point i gave for a worst case scenario because there is enormous support at 5bob... so i might have to change it

about kenya re... i'm also a very big hater of everything insurance but facts are facts.. this company will announce exceptional results(compared to others) so for me it is pure speculation and then i bail... i really think you should look at it JUST for 2010..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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guru267
#71 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 6:01:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@all
a couple of buddies of mine and i were having a discussion about the NSE and we concluded that if this political crisis was to continue for a prolonged period it may permanently damage the NSE...

As a result of the election crisis/fraud, collapse of brokers,global downturn foreigners bailed from our market which led to a collapse of stock prices and destroyed confidence of local investors...

with the recent renewed optimism of foreigners in the NSE prices have been revaluing and local interest is slowly coming back..
if GOK collapses foreigners may bail almost permanently and Wanjiku may stick to the fixed income segment for good..
the only result can be a permanently low market P/E for stocks and extremely low turnover...

your thoughts would be much appreciated???
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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ecstacy
#72 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 7:04:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
damn! RAO has spoken +vely earlier than expected and the CoE as well as the Politicians have agreed on the draft...time to get in.
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guru267
#73 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 7:27:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@ectasy if what your saying is true then wazurians shuold discard my earlier post and prepare for a market rally...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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ecstacy
#74 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 10:48:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
the upward correction for discounted political risk is underway...coalition disagreements are after all not the worst thing!
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VituVingiSana
#75 Posted : Thursday, February 18, 2010 2:43:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
Maybe Raila created this mess so his buddies could get in cheap? [Just kidding... too many conspiracies on Wazua...]

I was waiting to get in (cheaper) but the ship sailed past me!!!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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