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Buffet's diehards read this
Rollout
#21 Posted : Monday, May 02, 2011 10:19:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/26/2011
Posts: 759
@Erifloss.. what do you mean by ("our credit is going to be extremely different from that of the west".......,"This can be seen by the growth of the NSE & bond market"......."I see small business owners negotiate nowadays in terms of credit periods, payment terms, invoice discounting, forfeiture & some even forward pricing")? The first statement contradict the statements that follows, if anything, Kenya credit system and in extention the world credit system is evolving into one system.
Whether you agree with it or not the success of developing world economies will depend on the embrace and the availability of credit. If you say the terms of credit is different, I will agree with that, but again the western credit model seem to me to be more favorable considering the fact that it is move evolved, it is more liquid and the consumers are more protected by the respective governments, I know you'll bring up the credit crisis as a sign of western lack of protection but in overal western consumers are more protected.
I agree with someone that Africa and south east asia will be the next destination for investments but this depends on how these governments would stablize their respective country to the extend that the investment risk as rated by rating agencies could be drop to the level that will attract larger investments players, remember the largest investors in terms of purchasing powers are Mutual funds holdings which are controlled by a tightly regulated retirement portfolios which are banned by the regulators from investing in markets above predetermined Betas of which most developing countries's Betas fall above those limits.
QW25071985
#22 Posted : Monday, May 02, 2011 10:20:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
You mean Warren buffet missed the 10 year bull market rally for gold ....what a losser :

http://www.telegraph.co....ld-as-an-investment.html
VituVingiSana
#23 Posted : Monday, May 02, 2011 11:07:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
[quote=QW25071985]You mean Warren buffet missed the 10 year bull market rally for gold ....what a losser :

http://www.telegraph.co....d-as-an-investment.html[/quote]
What is a 'losser'?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
erifloss
#24 Posted : Monday, May 02, 2011 11:47:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
@Rollout, the difference is that the West's credit system is highly reliant on the credit card system which in turn is highly reliant on the banking system i.e.
The cardholder,
The card issuer
The merchant,
The acquirer,
The card Association.
Whereas in Kenya i can simply do my whole biz transaction without borrowing directly from a financial institution. We have something called the kadogo economy which works wonders & in some areas financing is actually repaid with the products produced and not cash. Marketing coop societies too have enhanced the whole system.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
Rollout
#25 Posted : Tuesday, May 03, 2011 12:27:39 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/26/2011
Posts: 759
@ Erifloss, now I understand you, but I don't know if that is an advantage or a disadvantage to the business,remember that for credit market to develop some form of credit must be issued. Note that a large part of Derivative markets is credited to credit market and the evolution of derivative market is a big boost to economies in form of, hedging, source of diversification,independent enterprise and a source of credit capital. Even for a stock market to grow, Credit is required.

I understand that, it make sense to be able to repay credit using product made out of the loans but that was where forward and future contracts were at one point,---it was like give me the money, I will deliver the products at such and such date in future---, Then it evolved into a cash settlement.
VituVingiSana
#26 Posted : Tuesday, May 03, 2011 1:50:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
@erifloss - I am sure the USA was at that point too at some point but it is no scalable without lots of friction costs...

Credit card sales cost between 2-5% [for most transactions] per transaction. Afforadble vs the friction costs in your example of the kadogo economy [which is OK for Kenya now but not in the future]...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
erifloss
#27 Posted : Tuesday, May 03, 2011 11:03:12 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
@vvs, most of the western world depend on transfer of debt and this basically prolongs debt periods as re-negotiations always take place. Take an example of the new terminology used 'securitization' where basically any debt can be changed into a security which can again be borrowed against coz it stands as an investment. This creates a cycle of debt that with time becomes extremely shaky & risky. Iceland's & Ireland's economies stand as proof.
I don't think that our economy will go that route as i see even the BRIC countries have tried not to make the same mistakes.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
VituVingiSana
#28 Posted : Tuesday, May 03, 2011 11:28:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
@erifloss - Even if we keep it simple [forget derivatives & securitization for now] there is a need for an easier way to intermediate the credit...

My gut tells me Equity will find a way that combines the 'small' loans to a mass market. It might be through M-Pesa or through the Agents...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
erifloss
#29 Posted : Tuesday, May 03, 2011 2:48:44 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@erifloss - Even if we keep it simple [forget derivatives & securitization for now] there is a need for an easier way to intermediate the credit...

My gut tells me Equity will find a way that combines the 'small' loans to a mass market. It might be through M-Pesa or through the Agents...

@vvs, Equity is actually fully entrnched in SME sector and i think that's why they've always had a problem in dealing with large corporate clients and have been trying their best case in point the NCC deal. I was astonished when i realized that in some rural areas they do take farm products as payments which they actually know how to kind of sell.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
murchr
#30 Posted : Sunday, March 08, 2015 7:46:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
I know most of you diehards have gone through the letter already but i thought i'd share
WSJ wrote:
This year’s letter from Warren Buffett to the shareholders of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has been 50 years in the making. The famed “Oracle of Omaha” looked back over the decades to reflect on Berkshire’s success–and peered into his crystal ball to see what lies ahead.

One thing about the letter was clear above all: It wasn’t written solely for Berkshire’s current shareholders. Mr. Buffett was writing for Berkshire’s future leaders, giving a roadmap of how the massive conglomerate got here, and providing signposts to help get where it’s headed next. It’s a document he expects will be part of the conversation about the company for decades to come.

The Wall Street Journal brought together a collection of three dozen Buffettologists, Berkshire shareholders, value investors and academics to help readers better understand the 25,000 word manuscript, which also includes a terse–but newsworthy–four-and-a-half pages from Berkshire’s vice chairman, Charlie Munger.


Source WSJ
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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