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karanjakinuthia
#201 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 3:03:32 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
This chapter of Western Civilization will be regarded as "The Debt of Nations". Markets players aka debt vigilantes have put politicians' feet to the fire. Round the clock meetings to assuage the markets are in progress, the latest market buzz being that of a E.U. led bailout of Greece.

Between the Dollar, Euro and gold, which has the characteristics of a true reserve currency?

"Last week Moody’s Investors Service warned that the triple A credit rating of the US should not be taken for granted. That warning recalls Larry Summers’ killer question (posed before he returned to government): “How long can the world’s biggest borrower remain the world’s biggest power?”

On reflection, it is appropriate that the fiscal crisis of the west has begun in Greece, the birthplace of western civilization. Soon it will cross the channel to Britain. But the key question is when that crisis will reach the last bastion of western power, on the other side of the Atlantic...."

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com...k-sovereign-debt-crisis

karanjakinuthia
#202 Posted : Friday, February 12, 2010 6:21:07 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
It is a telco, a money transfer service and an internet service provider. It has been or will be number one in every segment it participates in. It's management is top class. It is one of the most widely held stocks thereby one with intense emotional tags. It is a cornerstone to any portfolio.

Purchase it on price dips.

"Mobile service provider Safaricom has announced that it hopes to rake in Sh13 billion in revenues from its data business over the next 20 months as it renews its assault on the internet market.

Continuing a hunt for new revenue streams as the profit margins on its voice services drop due to increased competition in the industry, the mobile firm is hoping the up tick in demand for Internet services will drive earnings.

“According to our latest financial results, data, including M-pesa, accounted for about 17 per cent of our revenues. We intend to double this performance in the next two years,” said Mr Michael Joseph, the Safaricom CEO, in an interview with Business Daily..."

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily...0/-/quf7gf/-/index.html

karanjakinuthia
#203 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 11:18:19 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
A stroll down memory lane to the most recent global currency crisis of 1931 makes for a must read in the wake of recent debt stresses in Dubai and Greece. The departure between now and then was that the world was on a gold standard and the U.S. was the world's largest creditor nation or lender. The crisis began in Europe caused capital or gold to flee in search of a safe haven in the U.S. The Dollar acted as a port of safety in those turbulent times due to the U.S. declaration of neutrality and as an arms dealer in World War II. By 1945, the U.S. owned 76% of the world's gold.

Today, the gold standard is no more whilst the U.S. is the world's largest debtor nation or borrower. How times have changed.

"The worst financial crisis of the past century began in a small central European country 77 years ago next month. The failure in May 1931 of Austria's largest bank, the Credit-Anstalt, set in train a series of repercussions that deepened the economic dislocation of the 1930s and contributed to the immiseration of an entire generation of people across the industrialized world...."

Read more:

http://www.canada.com/ot...-4865-adde-23c69019f414

karanjakinuthia
#204 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 6:11:50 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Markets to watch during the spat between the two Principals and affiliated parties are the currency and treasury debt markets. Continued uncertainty could push the shilling to the dollar above 80 which is a "line in the sand" as analysed in March 2009 (http://tinyurl.com/ybe5ueq). However, the stock market could become an attractive port of safety for capital that flees the treasury debt market. This would signal a preference of private sector over public sector assets.

"The gradual recovery of the key sectors that are the source of dollar inflows is expected to hold the Kenya shilling steady despite recent political developments that have rattled the local currency.

The shilling on Tuesday touched an eight-month low against the US dollar but later recouped some losses, sparking concerns that unfolding events in the political arena could lead to a repeat of the wild currency swings last seen in early 2008...."

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily...0/-/6buenq/-/index.html

karanjakinuthia
#205 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 1:54:21 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Would you rather own the U.S. Dollar, the Euro or Gold?

http://ftalphaville.ft.c...euro-pictorial-edition/

karanjakinuthia
#206 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 4:48:09 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Please review the gold chart here: http://tinyurl.com/yd9hg58 .I have utilised technical analysis to provide price targets.

Yesterday saw a new all time high in gold in Euro terms as investors seek safety from the destabilisation in the European states of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy.

The Euro lacks a mechanism which would allow a member nation to devalue its currency or adjust interest rates. Greece would have easily devalued the Drachma in the pre-Euro days, forcing debt investors to take a haircut on their holdings whilst easing their treasury's payment commitments. One spoilt apple in the Euro Area has the ability to upset the entire apple cart.

"Gold should continue to consolidate over the next few weeks but, the next big move is likely to be up.

This is the view of Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist John Embry, who says he is looking for the price of the yellow metal to hit around $1,350 to $1,400 by late spring.

Speaking on the inaugural Mineweb Gold Weekly Podcast, Embry says the recent downward trend seen in the gold price is nothing more than a healthy correction...."

Read more:

http://www.mineweb.co.za...amp;sn=Detail&pid=1

karanjakinuthia
#207 Posted : Friday, February 19, 2010 6:17:21 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
A candid assessment of the teetering house of cards - the over-indebtedness of nation states. In true LEAP 2020 fashion, a phrase is coined, that Greece is the tree that is being used to hide the forest of sovereign debt of the UK and US. I will add that the hue and cry over this tree is a well ochestrated plan to profit from the fall in its bond prices. The disrespectful term PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) demarcates nations in the sniper scope of bond vigilantes.

"LEAP/E2020 is of the view that the effect of States’ spending trillions to « counteract the crisis » will have fizzled out. These vast sums had the effect of slowing down the development of the systemic global crisis for several months but, as anticipated in previous GEAB reports, this strategy will only have ultimately served to clearly drag States into the crisis caused by the financial institutions.

Therefore our team anticipates, in this 42nd issue of the GEAB, a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years...."

Read more:

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-42-is-available!-Second-half-of-2010-Sudden-intensification-of-the-global-systemic-crisis-Strengthening-of-five_a4294.html
Scubidu
#208 Posted : Friday, February 19, 2010 7:46:17 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
kk. Do you follow oil? Stumbled on a few articles on Investors Daily Edge.

Check them out below:

http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/
http://www.investorsdail...eak-oil-is-a-crock.html
http://www.investorsdail...he-truth-about-oil.html

Do you know people who have opinions on how these scenarios will unfold?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
karanjakinuthia
#209 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 5:56:25 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Scubidu. Yes, I do follow oil, opting to invest in mid size exploration and production companies. I also selectively seek exploration companies that have great managements and blue sky prospects.

The articles fail to mention the role that the depreciation of the U.S. Dollar plays on the appreciation of oil. Keep in mind that crude oil may trade in the hundreds of dollars in the midst of poor demand fundamentals as long as the dollar races to the bottom.

Here's good source for energy related articles:

http://www.321energy.com/

Matthew Simmons, a strong proponent of Peak Oil:

http://www.simmonsco-int...ch.aspx?Type=msspeeches

If you have additional queries or comments please feel free to ask or post.

Scubidu
#210 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 2:44:05 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Thanks dude, although are we certain crude oil will be priced in dollars for the foreseeable future? But it's interesting you actually invest in exploration companies...wow...yeah they'd have to be pretty good cos that sounds kinda risky. Question kk, does oil drilling cause earthquakes? A friend of mine told me that. I'll be sure to bookmark those links. I definately need to read up more on this issue. Thanks again.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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