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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Member Joined: 12/30/2012 Posts: 545 Location: NBI
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mic_mic wrote:mnandii wrote:Inflation has stayed below the Fed's target for more than two years. Yet investors still focus on the Fed's every move. So now try to guess the publication date of still another quote from The Elliott Wave Theorist: "The vast majority of investors seems confident that the Fed’s actions make a stock market collapse impossible. [We] hear comments along these lines: 'the Fed will provide liquidity,' 'the Fed is injecting money into the system.'
"[The truth is,] the Fed does not 'inject' liquidity; it only offers it. If nobody wants it, the inflation game is over. The determinant of that matter is the market. When bull markets turn to bear, confidence turns to fear, and fearful people do not lend or borrow at the same rates as confident ones. The ultimate drivers of inflation and deflation are human mental states that the Fed cannot manipulate.
"The day the Fed lowers one of its rates or engineers a major temporary loan -- and the stock market goes down anyway -- is the day that investors will become utterly uncertain of what they believe about market causality, and panic will have no bridle." The Theorist published this in September 2007. One month later the stock market topped, followed by the year-and-a-half meltdown which ushered in the Great Recession (from which we still have not fully recovered). Why didn't the Fed stop the collapse seven years ago? The short answer is: If they could have they would have. Just something to keep in mind for investors who continue to pin their hopes on the Fed. Read more: http://www.elliottwave.c...es/archives/2015/01/29/(Video,-412-min.)-Deflation-Why-the-Fed-Has-Been-Losing-the-Battle.aspx#ixzz3QHXEaiWG Follow us: @elliottwaveintl on Twitter | ElliottWaveInternational on Facebook I call them text book investors. All they do is follow word for word textbook concepts that have now long been abandoned! Anyway, here is a chart of the Dow Jones  We asked him where he thought the gold price will be in five years and he said “measurably higher.” Alan greenspan Specially he said that the era of quantitative easing and zero-interest rate policies by the Fed… we really cannot exit this without some significant market event… By that I interpret it being either a stock market crash or a prolonged recession, which would then engender another round of monetary reflation by the Fed.http://www.zerohedge.com...something-big-going-hap
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:To the point. "Charts tell the truth", Prechter. As I have stated for most of this year, we are in the cusp of a very large bear market. The charts lend credence to this. To reiterate, the NSE 20 Share Index should drop, within the next two years, to below 2360. Yes. You read that right! Long term working chart:  The NSE has been climbing in wave B which I now anticipate to end at 5473.4 points. Details below. This from October 1rst, 2014. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:To the point. "Charts tell the truth", Prechter. As I have stated for most of this year, we are in the cusp of a very large bear market. The charts lend credence to this. To reiterate, the NSE 20 Share Index should drop, within the next two years, to below 2360. Yes. You read that right! Long term working chart: The NSE has been climbing in wave B which I now anticipate to end at 5473.4 points. Details below. This from October 1rst, 2014. 5473.81 hit on 19th Feb. 2015. I dont think there is any more upside from now. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:Our triangle ended at 4863.87 points. The bull guys are happy about is the progressing impulse wave shown here.  So far we have waves 1,2, an extended wave 3 and a wave 4. Like below:  Wave sizes: Wave 1 = (5022.36-4863.87) = 158.49 Wave 2 = (5022.36-5003.78) = 18.58 Wave 3 = (5406.39-5003.78) = 402.61 Wave 4 = (5406.39-5216.96) = 189.43 Golden ratio relationships: Wave 3 = Wave 1 X Fib. 2.618 = 414.93. Accurate to within 12 points. Wave 4 is about half wave 3. Also notice alternation between waves 2 and 4. Wave 2 is shallow and wave 4 goes deeply into wave 3. Quote:Alternation
The guideline of alternation is very broad in its application and warns the analyst always to expect a difference in the next expression of a similar wave. Hamilton Bolton said,
The writer is not convinced that alternation is inevitable in types of waves in larger formations, but there are frequent enough cases to suggest that one should look for it rather than the contrary. Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behaviour. Quote:Alternation Within Impulses
If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behaviour. The target of 5473.4 is obtained following the guideline of equality which states that if wave 3 is extended then expect wave 5 to be related to wave 1 by equality. Failing equality, a Fibonacci multiple should be applied. Thus: Wave 1 = 158.49 If wave 5 = Wave 1, then wave 5 should end at 5375. Since this level has been surpassed the next target is: Wave 1 X 1.618 = 158.49 X 1.618 = 256.44 points. Added to wave 4 low gives a target of 5473.4 i.e [5216.96 + 256.44] From Oct. 1rst, 2014 also. The kind of pattern that has been forming lately seems to be an expanded ending diagonal. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Will the banking sector give us the shakeout I've been anticipating? Rosy results or lacklustre ones won't matter... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:Will the banking sector give us the shakeout I've been anticipating? Rosy results or lacklustre ones won't matter... very good kcb numbers no reaction,u may be relevant "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Reversal due in NSE. Take care! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:Will the banking sector give us the shakeout I've been anticipating? Rosy results or lacklustre ones won't matter... Equity diversifying.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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We have ended up with an 'ending diagonal' in the NSE. The drop from current levels will be breathtaking! I will post a chart later. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Quote:Nigeria’s commodities magnate Aliko Dangote suffered the greatest slump in net worth of the 1,826 dollar billionaires on the 2015 Forbes magazine list.
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He is also a victim of a slumping Nigerian Stock Exchange, as uncertainty about the nation’s future has left investors sceptical.
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The country, which is battling a Boko Haram insurgency, postponed presidential elections scheduled for February over security concerns. Like Nigeria, when the NSE falls expect to have no elections in 2017 Or if they will be held, there will likely be alot of chaos. Much more than 2007 perhaps. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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mnandii wrote:Quote:Nigeria’s commodities magnate Aliko Dangote suffered the greatest slump in net worth of the 1,826 dollar billionaires on the 2015 Forbes magazine list.
...
He is also a victim of a slumping Nigerian Stock Exchange, as uncertainty about the nation’s future has left investors sceptical.
..
The country, which is battling a Boko Haram insurgency, postponed presidential elections scheduled for February over security concerns. Like Nigeria, when the NSE falls expect to have no elections in 2017 Or if they will be held, there will likely be alot of chaos. Much more than 2007 perhaps. I foresee a coalition gvt in future because hapa nje ni moto sana watu wakiendelea kukula "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mlennyma wrote:mnandii wrote:Quote:Nigeria’s commodities magnate Aliko Dangote suffered the greatest slump in net worth of the 1,826 dollar billionaires on the 2015 Forbes magazine list.
...
He is also a victim of a slumping Nigerian Stock Exchange, as uncertainty about the nation’s future has left investors sceptical.
..
The country, which is battling a Boko Haram insurgency, postponed presidential elections scheduled for February over security concerns. Like Nigeria, when the NSE falls expect to have no elections in 2017 Or if they will be held, there will likely be alot of chaos. Much more than 2007 perhaps. I foresee a coalition gvt in future because hapa nje ni moto sana watu wakiendelea kukula A coalition gov may be possible with a rising market. However, with a falling market the negative social mood that will be there will create very hostile politics locally. The opposing camps will be very distinct and will hate each other with a passion. In fact there is going to be very violent riots. At the same time expect more disease epidemics, widespread poverty, people moving in with their parents (because of economic desolation), women wearing longer skirts (as opposed to miniskirts), interest in sex rather than love, more rounder cars etc. Many of these things will become more apparent as 2016 approaches. Take care. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:We have ended up with an 'ending diagonal' in the NSE. The drop from current levels will be breathtaking! I will post a chart later.  Our NSE 20 Share Index Long term chart. We reiterate that the NSE 20 is going to fall below 2360 level.  The structure of wave C and our expaning ending diagonal at the upper right corner. A move below 4900 in the coming weeks will be key to our wave count and will prove the case for the bear market ahead. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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2,360????? 2017 elections will be the most peaceful. Probably the subsequent one..... In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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Mr. Market seems to have priced in the banking sector results and the utilities are being bought which is usually a sign of the bear is around the corner
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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mkonomtupu wrote:Mr. Market seems to have priced in the banking sector results and the utilities are being bought which is usually a sign of the bear is around the corner Currently things look bad. even looking at demand and supply across counters....many look southerly. Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Quote:An American gold buying company has set up shop in a five-star Nairobi hotel seeking to buy jewellery and coins containing precious metal from Kenyans.
Field Rich Corporation is offering buyers as much as Sh1.32 million for gold coins while items such as bracelets, rings, watches and earrings are going for up to Sh220,000.
The company is also purchasing silver and platinum ornaments, offering hundreds of Kenyans a quick buck in exchange for their broken, old and unwanted pricey jewellery.
A spot-check by the Business Daily at the hotel where Field Rich Corporation is operating from showed there was a steady stream of potential sellers waiting in line, but the company’s officials declined to comment on their operations.
US FIRM BUYS GOLD JEWELLERY IN NAIROBICareful!!! That precious metal you own will be your lifeline during the coming depression! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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What is socionomics?Socionomics is a new science of social prediction. Socionomic research explains how repeating waves of social mood generate social trends; how a positive mood induces people to expand businesses, dress with flair, buy happy music, live in peace — and buy stocks; and how negative mood induces us to do the opposite. Simply put, forecasting social mood puts you ahead of the curve — way ahead. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Volatility has returned. Expect fireworks in the markets next week. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Angelica _ann wrote:2,360?????
2017 elections will be the most peaceful. Probably the subsequent one..... This is a very minimum target dear. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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