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PLAYING THE MARKET-A NEW YEAR RESOLUTION
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VituVingiSana
#61 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 7:48:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
@mukiha - All insurance firms (especially in life insurance) have long-term holdings coz they need to generate positive returns to cover float...

Most insurance firms make underwriting losses... Warren Buffett uses the 'float' to make even more...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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2012
#62 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 8:04:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Thanks guys for clearing that up. I managed to download their 2004 to 2008 Annual Reports from their website and my interest has tripled. I kept googling Jubilee Holdings and Jubilee Insurance kept coming up but finally got it.
@mukiha I'm also looking at getting in.

BBI will solve it :)
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VituVingiSana
#63 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 8:56:36 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
Jubilee & Diamond Trust are very well-managed firms...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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stocksmaster
#64 Posted : Saturday, February 13, 2010 12:39:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 410
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
ACTIVITY 5: PURCHASE OF 100,000 SHARES OF SAFARICOM AT KSH 5.35

DATE: 12TH FEBRUARY 2010

Value of transaction: 100000 X Ksh5.35 = Ksh535000
Add transaction costs(2%)=Ksh 10700

Total cost of purchase= Ksh 545700

Cash in Hand after activity 4: Ksh 776250
Less cost of purchase(activity 5): Ksh 545700

Cash in hand after activity 5:Ksh 230550

RATIONALE OF PURCHASE:
I had a shortlist of three shares but narrowed down to Safaricom due to very high liquidity of the share, good results expected for 2009, alot of local and foreign investors attention,and market dominance.

One challenge for a speculator is the ease of entry and exit from a counter and hence Safaricom is quickly becoming a speculators dream.

Happy hunting
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cnn
#65 Posted : Saturday, February 13, 2010 1:14:51 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
@stockmaster,any chance of us knowing the other two in your shortlist?.
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the deal
#66 Posted : Saturday, February 13, 2010 1:22:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@ stocksmaster good move...you really teaching us how to play the game...having gotten in @ 5.35 whats your exit price or target?
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sparkly
#67 Posted : Saturday, February 13, 2010 1:27:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@2012 jubilee is a good counter though a bit iliquid. Price will rise sharply once the increase in motor vehicle insurance premiums is made official. From march the premiums will be 7.5% up from 5%.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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VituVingiSana
#68 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 6:59:28 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
@stocksmaster - I think you could have gotten them cheaper but your objectives (& success with Mumias) are different from mine...

And hats off to your buy + sell on Mumias...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#69 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 8:38:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
planning to add more safcom to my portifolio...around april...i see safom i see mtn and vodacom....when i see kplc i see eskom and nampower...powerful companies....
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VituVingiSana
#70 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 8:56:23 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
@the deal: Eskom is government owned but tell me more about NamPower...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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2012
#71 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:27:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
In Sunday Nation, CBK reported that Banks made 15% profit in 2009. Individually, some have made obviously made more than others. I think for short term investors it's time to do a quick study on and capitalize on it now before the announcements. My bet would be on BBK, KCB, NIC HF and NBK. Not too sure about Equity, Co-op and SCB. Your thoughts?

BBI will solve it :)
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sheep
#72 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:31:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
I cant help but notice CFC,just sitting there as if waiting.....
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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VituVingiSana
#73 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:33:25 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
- SCBK 3Q +44% yoy. Since one of the larger banks... you can expect they contributed significantly to the 15% growth for 2009
- KCB should be positive coz of fewer scams in 2009!!! 2008 was affected by Triton.
- BBK might find 15% tough but I hear the announcement is very close...
- HFCK shud see a strong growth coz of booming mortgage business...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#74 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:37:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@ vvs nampower is also goverment owned....rarely reports losses...
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2012
#75 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:43:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
- SCBK 3Q +44% yoy. Since one of the larger banks... you can expect they contributed significantly to the 15% growth for 2009
- KCB should be positive coz of fewer scams in 2009!!! 2008 was affected by Triton.
- BBK might find 15% tough but I hear the announcement is very close...
- HFCK shud see a strong growth coz of booming mortgage business...


@vvs, Thanks for that. I was rather confused about SCB. What's your take on Equity?

BBI will solve it :)
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VituVingiSana
#76 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:50:39 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
@ vvs nampower is also goverment owned....rarely reports losses...

Only other listed electricity firm I know is CEC of Zambia...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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sheep
#77 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 7:07:47 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
@stocksmaster,

Your time to take a loss has come if you haven't sold already.Remember every 50% loss starts out as a 10%,20% loss.Hope is the biggest enemy of the cold-hearted speculator.You jumped in too early.My 2 cents.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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VituVingiSana
#78 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 7:38:36 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
I say @stocksmaster made a brilliant move bailing out of Mumias... which is now down to 9.25 whereas safaricom has support at 5/- (currently 5.15)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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cnn
#79 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 8:22:08 AM
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Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
was waiting for mumias at below 10,unexpected winds have me placing a bid @8.90 and crossing my fingers.
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VituVingiSana
#80 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2010 8:25:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
cnn wrote:
was waiting for mumias at below 10,unexpected winds have me placing a bid @8.90 and crossing my fingers.

Mumias has stabilised (for now) at 9.10-9.20 but... nothing wrong in wanting a lower price. Any hint of violence & Mumias will fall in price.
Mumias is in, well, Mumias... & since Nairobi is the largest market for sugar (3mn+ people) any disruption (roadblocks) means Mumias cant sell sugar!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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