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KENOL-KOBIL 2014
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Boris Boyka wrote:mlennyma wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:Wake me up when it is 10.30.... 10.30 only?learn to sustain, you don't need to sleep with this target because it can be tomorrow  who said kk can not rally 10%? @mr.lenny at a VWAP of 10.3 it means a good qty has traded at a higher price thus even if it swings, bottom is around 10/- .this 10.3 has been the resistance. breaking it is neccesary. waking up means now following keenly and affording a smile. did i mention that is my target??? it seems we are all struggling to have faith in kk,we can't imagine it can have a low of 10.30 tomorrow, miracles do happen "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Boris Boyka wrote:mlennyma wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:Wake me up when it is 10.30.... 10.30 only?learn to sustain, you don't need to sleep with this target because it can be tomorrow who said kk can not rally 10%? @mr.lenny at a VWAP of 10.3 it means a good qty has traded at a higher price thus even if it swings, bottom is around 10/- .this 10.3 has been the resistance. breaking it is neccesary. waking up means now following keenly and affording a smile. did i mention that is my target??? it seems we are all struggling to have faith in kk,we can't imagine it can have a low of 10.30 tomorrow, miracles do happen?enyewe ni ngumu may be with bonus and dividend news "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:mlennyma wrote:@aguy!!!what picture would you post?a monkey mating? thats a monkey's happiest moment The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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What's the ultimate goal of the MAJOR shareholders? That is the question one should ask. The rest of us and our thoughts are irrelevant. If Biwott & Family wants to sell out then they will ask Ohana to clean up the books and prepare it for sale. The only question is how much? If the ultimate aim of Biwott & Family is to cash out then KK should start selling off its properties that are located in areas where the fuel sales have stagnated but property prices are increasing. EXAMPLE: A station with 1/2 acre valued at 250mn [think Westlands/Parklands/Kilimani/Upper Hill] Net combined [wholesale + retail] margin of 5/- per liter AFTER costs including salaries, licenses, maintenance, advertising, taxes, transport, etc. If KK pays 12.5% on its KES loans so borrowing KES 250mn = 31.25mn To earn 31.25mn the station has to sell 6.25mn liters per year = 500,000/month So if the station can't sell 500,000 liters/month, is it worth keeping? How many stations in these high-cost areas sell 500,000 liters/month? What makes more sense for debt-heavy KK? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/20/2012 Posts: 141
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VituVingiSana wrote:What's the ultimate goal of the MAJOR shareholders? That is the question one should ask. The rest of us and our thoughts are irrelevant.
If Biwott & Family wants to sell out then they will ask Ohana to clean up the books and prepare it for sale. The only question is how much?
If the ultimate aim of Biwott & Family is to cash out then KK should start selling off its properties that are located in areas where the fuel sales have stagnated but property prices are increasing.
EXAMPLE:
A station with 1/2 acre valued at 250mn [think Westlands/Parklands/Kilimani/Upper Hill]
Net combined [wholesale + retail] margin of 5/- per liter AFTER costs including salaries, licenses, maintenance, advertising, taxes, transport, etc.
If KK pays 12.5% on its KES loans so borrowing KES 250mn = 31.25mn
To earn 31.25mn the station has to sell 6.25mn liters per year = 500,000/month
So if the station can't sell 500,000 liters/month, is it worth keeping?
How many stations in these high-cost areas sell 500,000 liters/month?
What makes more sense for debt-heavy KK? Your analysis is spot on. Now if the major shareholders wanted to sell off, would they want the price to shoot or be manageable and they can cut deals with the buyer on how they can benefit? That's why I think the share price is somehow surpressed.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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1. Supress the share,negotiate with suitor and get their chicken. 2. Supress share,wade off minor shareholders while they buy in more.....after done share sky rockets and they are billionaires whether sell off or not. In my view both are possible and probability is 50/50 ,only an insider can unravel for us this mistery Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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Boris Boyka wrote:
1. Supress the share,negotiate with suitor and get their chicken.
2. Supress share,wade off minor shareholders while they buy in more.....after done share sky rockets and they are billionaires whether sell off or not.
In my view both are possible and probability is 50/50 ,only an insider can unravel for us this mistery
Happy to see you are now awake Boris Boyka wrote:I repeat: If this counter is still within 7.90-10.30 bracket,don't bother yourself and others. when it goes beyond those price brackets,please bother and wake me up. Otherwise am in deep slumber. It seems like the defence line to reach past 10.30 is no mean task.  Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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All said and done, it makes better sense for all, including the Controlling Shareholders, to manage the firm well. Whereas I am sure there will be a suitor but failing that why not have a well-run and profitable business? BTW, I believe it makes sense to cash out of underperforming locations whose real estate prices are crazy high. This was not uncommon in many markets. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Gatheuzi wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:
1. Supress the share,negotiate with suitor and get their chicken.
2. Supress share,wade off minor shareholders while they buy in more.....after done share sky rockets and they are billionaires whether sell off or not.
In my view both are possible and probability is 50/50 ,only an insider can unravel for us this mistery
Happy to see you are now awake Boris Boyka wrote:I repeat: If this counter is still within 7.90-10.30 bracket,don't bother yourself and others. when it goes beyond those price brackets,please bother and wake me up. Otherwise am in deep slumber. It seems like the defence line to reach past 10.30 is no mean task. the share has undergone 1hr moment of silence "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Imminent break out on the cards. Upper bollinger band of 10.22 broken  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Imminent break out on the cards. Upper bollinger band of 10.22 broken Long time, no read. Karibu, bearer of good news. @VVS. I concur, even if your selling it, run the business as you normally would ( read kk stations) The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Thanks brother. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Imminent break out on the cards. Upper bollinger band of 10.22 broken Long time, no read. Karibu, bearer of good news. @VVS. I concur, even if your selling it, run the business as you normally would ( read kk stations) is the meat ready I bring firewood?I can't see what is holding the share not to clock 10.50 "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/10/2015 Posts: 411
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Imminent break out on the cards. Upper bollinger band of 10.22 broken Philanga thropic good job! Your income is directly related to your philosophy, Not the economy.-Jim Rohn
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,297
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/10/2015 Posts: 411
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"Its our time to eat"  Your income is directly related to your philosophy, Not the economy.-Jim Rohn
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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 Counting chicks before hatch. Vapour is easily carried by wind to any direction. vision 20..... Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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stop counting this chicks before they hatch. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,297
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When I long time did economics, I was taught that it was mandatory to anticipate your life cycle/span and some of us gave 101, others 85, some 70 as in bible while few gave the mathematical infinity.
So lets count everything, after all there is a source.
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