Wazua
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The Housing Bubble in Kenya will Burst very soon....
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Although we all agree there is hyper competition in real estate and that demand is so strange people at times seems to think owning the land is the end game I still don’t see what will cause the bust..
What is the cause of demand for land and housing..
1. Speculation
2. Foreigners rushing into Kenya to catch a bit of the wealth as the economy grows ( some find land cheap compared to where they come from).
3. Population of 46M people growing at least 2.5% per year.
4. More of lower income moving into middle income and can afford more luxury.
5. The UN bodies hosed in Kenya.
6. Kenya being the gateway to other EA countries there are a lot of transit residents
7. The fact that those with large chunks of land are not willing to sub divide.
8. Migration from rural to urban.
9. A Diaspora who want to invest in the country and can afford a bit more than the average local.
10. The fact that most of the new comers are knowing pulling into Chama’s and bank loans are no longer the only way to invest. Check out what is the % of real estate on mortgage.
Please continue.......
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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streetwise wrote:
Please continue.......
1.Kick backs which is cheap money not worked for therefore you can afford to throw it around - 10%!
2. Gova infrastructure projects inawacha pesa kwa mkono wa locals etcFormal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/6/2015 Posts: 12
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Hi Wazuans
I have just joined this forum cause there's a lot of streetwise information here. My take on this discussion is that a bubble bust is not going to happen anytime soon. What we are seeing is an oversupply of apartments in a number of upmarket areas, but not across the board.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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Saw some apartments in Hatheru Road going for 49m and some have been booked, so I don't what bubble we're talking about. But on a different note I saw an article in Business Daily that either WB or IMF says Kenyan Banks have not safeguarded themselves against the rising bad debts and they could bring them down... could be from housing loans.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/2/2010 Posts: 845
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2012 wrote:Saw some apartments in Hatheru Road going for 49m and some have been booked, so I don't what bubble we're talking about.
But on a different note I saw an article in Business Daily that either WB or IMF says Kenyan Banks have not safeguarded themselves against the rising bad debts and they could bring them down... could be from housing loans. Cant be from mortgages. There are more than 15 million bank accounts in Kenya and mortgages are way below 50,000. All my friends are heathens, take it slow. Wait for them to ask you who you know. Please don't make any sudden moves.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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Am coming!!! www.businessdailyafrica....0/-/y49k62z/-/index.html keep my space. Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Hello Joined: 2/9/2015 Posts: 1
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mlennyma wrote:I can confirm from where I live the report is true,some flats have been vacant since august,you may think the owners want them vacant but no,they will take time to admit the sensible thing to do is to adjust rent downwards and stop living in denial its real Are you saying that constructing MIDDLE CLASS apartments today is like investing in quail?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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sanjom wrote:mlennyma wrote:I can confirm from where I live the report is true,some flats have been vacant since august,you may think the owners want them vacant but no,they will take time to admit the sensible thing to do is to adjust rent downwards and stop living in denial its real Are you saying that constructing MIDDLE CLASS apartments today is like investing in quail? not really but the demand has slowed down and the number of vacant house's continues to increase, there was a time you couldn't get a vacant house without being exploited by agents dishing viewing commissions "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/17/2009 Posts: 3,583 Location: Kenya
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was this the case in Nakuru? a whole acre in the cbd - wololo. Quote:
Some four years ago, an acre of land in the CBD was worth between Sh1 million and Sh5 million
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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sanjom wrote:mlennyma wrote:I can confirm from where I live the report is true,some flats have been vacant since august,you may think the owners want them vacant but no,they will take time to admit the sensible thing to do is to adjust rent downwards and stop living in denial its real Are you saying that constructing MIDDLE CLASS apartments today is like investing in quail? On the flip side we should understand that some of the house owners make more money by treating the houses as an asset that can be used as collateral rather so they are not worried about lack of tenants as long as it's less than 3 months African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/2/2009 Posts: 299 Location: kenya
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@nakujua.I don't know where these people get there figures from because 1 acre at Nakuru in the CBD was not going for one Million in 2010.I was around and thats nothing near the truth.Remember this was after the post election violence and prices were hitting the roof thanks to our moneyed brothers from North Rift.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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2012 wrote:Saw some apartments in Hatheru Road going for 49m and some have been booked, so I don't what bubble we're talking about.
But on a different note I saw an article in Business Daily that either WB or IMF says Kenyan Banks have not safeguarded themselves against the rising bad debts and they could bring them down... could be from housing loans. @2012 are you sure they are booked, or is it the agent saying so or is it a sign board saying 90% booked? Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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nakujua wrote:was this the case in Nakuru? a whole acre in the cbd - wololo. Quote:
Some four years ago, an acre of land in the CBD was worth between Sh1 million and Sh5 million
@nakujua..maybe. @Popat how much was it going at?? I remember before PEV the town was slooooow. Jioni at 6.00 pm ulikua streets alone with all shops closed. asubuhi 8 a.m was the time, ukitoka mapema you were alone on streets. renting a maisonnette was 10k . truly prices started skyrocketing...and now very many new storyed buildings. Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/17/2011 Posts: 229
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streetwise wrote:Although we all agree there is hyper competition in real estate and that demand is so strange people at times seems to think owning the land is the end game I still don’t see what will cause the bust..
What is the cause of demand for land and housing..
1. Speculation
2. Foreigners rushing into Kenya to catch a bit of the wealth as the economy grows ( some find land cheap compared to where they come from).
3. Population of 46M people growing at least 2.5% per year.
4. More of lower income moving into middle income and can afford more luxury.
5. The UN bodies hosed in Kenya.
6. Kenya being the gateway to other EA countries there are a lot of transit residents
7. The fact that those with large chunks of land are not willing to sub divide.
8. Migration from rural to urban.
9. A Diaspora who want to invest in the country and can afford a bit more than the average local.
10. The fact that most of the new comers are knowing pulling into Chama’s and bank loans are no longer the only way to invest. Check out what is the % of real estate on mortgage.
Please continue.......
@streetwise, good points. Population growth for example will continue to drive demand for housing. With projected population of about 56M by 2024 and 65M by 2030, where will these individuals be living? Sales OR Rentals>High end>Middle>Lower end segments may experience short term bubbles but I don't see a burst soon in KE. Such a high population growth will also continue to drive up the cost of land.
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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Jodaco wrote:Hi Wazuans
I have just joined this forum cause there's a lot of streetwise information here. My take on this discussion is that a bubble bust is not going to happen anytime soon. What we are seeing is an oversupply of apartments in a number of upmarket areas, but not across the board. Quote:Increased Supply - According to the World Bank, 35.0% of housing supply in Kenya is in the high-end market and another 48.0% in the upper middle income market whereas the highest demand is in the lower middle and low income segments, Increased development in the high end and upper middle segments of the market has resulted in increased supply, which has resulted in slowing down of price appreciation in areas such as Kileleshwa and Westlands changing to a 1.1% and 3.5% appreciation in 2017 compared to 4.7% and 6.4% appreciation in 2016, respectively. If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,517 Location: nairobi
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2012 wrote:Saw some apartments in Hatheru Road going for 49m and some have been booked, so I don't what bubble we're talking about.
But on a different note I saw an article in Business Daily that either WB or IMF says Kenyan Banks have not safeguarded themselves against the rising bad debts and they could bring them down... could be from housing loans. Ideally that 49m house shall get a buyer, but the money used is 99% likely to be proceeds of corruption. 88% of Kenyans earning a decent living cannot afford a home worth more than KES 4,500,000.. 11% can afford >KES 4,500,000 while the remaining 1% can even obtain a condo in NY
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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obiero wrote:2012 wrote:Saw some apartments in Hatheru Road going for 49m and some have been booked, so I don't what bubble we're talking about.
But on a different note I saw an article in Business Daily that either WB or IMF says Kenyan Banks have not safeguarded themselves against the rising bad debts and they could bring them down... could be from housing loans. Ideally that 49m house shall get a buyer, but the money used is 99% likely to be proceeds of corruption. 88% of Kenyans earning a decent living cannot afford a home worth more than KES 4,500,000.. 11% can afford >KES 4,500,000 while the remaining 1% can even obtain a condo in NY source and rink If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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Swenani wrote:obiero wrote:2012 wrote:Saw some apartments in Hatheru Road going for 49m and some have been booked, so I don't what bubble we're talking about.
But on a different note I saw an article in Business Daily that either WB or IMF says Kenyan Banks have not safeguarded themselves against the rising bad debts and they could bring them down... could be from housing loans. Ideally that 49m house shall get a buyer, but the money used is 99% likely to be proceeds of corruption. 88% of Kenyans earning a decent living cannot afford a home worth more than KES 4,500,000.. 11% can afford >KES 4,500,000 while the remaining 1% can even obtain a condo in NY source and rink Exchange bar & #Gossip In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:Swenani wrote:obiero wrote:2012 wrote:Saw some apartments in Hatheru Road going for 49m and some have been booked, so I don't what bubble we're talking about.
But on a different note I saw an article in Business Daily that either WB or IMF says Kenyan Banks have not safeguarded themselves against the rising bad debts and they could bring them down... could be from housing loans. Ideally that 49m house shall get a buyer, but the money used is 99% likely to be proceeds of corruption. 88% of Kenyans earning a decent living cannot afford a home worth more than KES 4,500,000.. 11% can afford >KES 4,500,000 while the remaining 1% can even obtain a condo in NY source and rink Exchange bar & #Gossip But its true do the math... possunt quia posse videntur
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The Housing Bubble in Kenya will Burst very soon....
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