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NSE SHARES PERFORMANCE: THREE YEAR FORECAST WITH 2012 IN MIND
Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 111
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I consider myself a medium to long term investor at the NSE. I tend to be one of the fearful ones especially after Uchumi froze quite a good chunk of my portfolio so nowadays i diversify quite a lot (probably more than i should). Currently among others i hold the following counters which i would like to continue holding until sometime in 2012, probably before the elections:
1]Sasini bought@Av. - @15.50 x 9,600
2]KQ - @41.00 x 10,000
3]Equity - @17.40 x 15,000
4]KCB - @22.40 x 10,000
5]Kenya-Re - @14.40 x 16,700
3]EABL - @138.00x 2,500
7]KENGEN - @21.00 X 4,000
8]Mumia's sugar - @11.40 x 35,000
I have two questions: First what are your predictions as to the 3 year movement in prices if i were to sell just before the 2012 elections? Will any of them have doubled? Secondly, should i sell some which wazurians think will not perform as well in that medium term (3 years)? If so which ones should i sell and which ones should i buy/keep. I will appreciate all your advice ...  Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
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How did you end up buying everything at such high prices? Was it bad advice from a broker or plain bad timing/luck? Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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@cicero you seem well diversified sectorwise. Your counters are mostly solid. For optimum returns maybe you should substitute with one of the higher growth small and midcaps. Lower your average in kengen and sasini. Conquer your fear its not good in stocks. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/26/2010 Posts: 124
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I am also wondering why you bought them so expensive! On the lighter side, I am curious about your wanting to sell just before elections...are you running for office? Perhaps investing for campaign funds? :) :) Tired of mediocrity. Am going to the very top!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
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Lets be honest,he did not buy the stocks too expensive.Imagine dudes who were in a buying frenzy in 2006-2007,they are totally wasted coz most didnt sell.Most People choose to sweep their huge losses under the carpet and focus on their measly "profits". The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,218 Location: Nairobi
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Sasini should have a good year coz of higher tea prices but it has to do very well to get to 15.50 KQ is above the buying price though I would hold on until the announcement on 30 May. Based on 1H results + 3Q announcement, KQ will do much better than last year. KCB will have a good year if it can avoid another scandal. The results should be out in Feb/March (as will other banks). Perhaps they will write back some provisions for Triton/KPC as well as Uchumi. BUT all these are indicators of revenues & profits... NOT share prices! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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It would be very hard for anyone to advice you on that. Did you have a clear exit strategy? Was it 2012? If so and it made sense to you then you should wait. My exit strategy is: -Sell after 40% gain -Exit at the earliest time possible from a counter when you are not too sure about the management especially new or when you can tell they're making a mistake. I offloaded all my Centum immediately I knew about their intention of investing in the railway. The railway is a brilliant idea but the politics around it makes it a bad deal for now. About 2012, I intend to have sold most of my shares mid to end of 2011 depending on whether the new constitution stamps out impunity. Because if not we'll experience mass exodus from the foreign investors first quarter of 2012 and for that I think mid-end 2012 will be a time to buy not sell.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 111
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@muhika, my shares have been bought over a lengthy period of time ... a small amount at a time. I rarely sell (bad, i am sure but at times it works). So most of those shares were bought in 2007 when prices were sky high. But i was clever enough  also to buy some when the NSE was down under. I bought almost on every counter, Mumias at 6, KQ @19, EABL@20 etc ... u can imagine how high my initials shares were on average ... so to me, i have done well, though to most of you NSE gurus i have done poorly ... Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,218 Location: Nairobi
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For the brave... 2012 will be the time to buy... but it is a risk coz if things go under... well, the shares could be worth less... Say the crap hits the fan... some idiot destroys/burns the EABL factory... the losses from the factory + loss of product for distribution + lower spending power = collapse in profits! BTW, we saw the reduced spending power in 2008... the farmers who were in IDP camps had no chumz... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 111
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@RichVee, i am not running for office at any time. i would rather run for board chairman once i have amassed enough shares of one of the counter, i am not sure which ... As for selling by 2012, i may shelve that if i think the country is stable like everyone of you. In fact, in November 2007, i sold all my holdings (if not all, almost all ...) in readiness for disaster ... and it happened, but i was fool enough to enter the market thereafter and was then hit by the global crisis as indeed some of you may have ... i usually dont sell but if i knew of such a crisis i would have sold. Instead, i bought which hasnt turned out to be such a bad idea as it brought my average down ... Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 111
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@sparkly, i will consider selling Sasini once i get more information in favour of a more solid counter ... Thanks Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 111
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@VVS thanks for your advice. I may still sell in 2012 unless i see solid committment by politicians to make the elections free & fair and the coutry stable ... i'd rather keep my cash in my pocket than risk them burning down EABL with me as a part owner ... Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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@VVS. For me 2012 is buy, buy, buy! I know it's a risk but what isn't? If the worst happens, who knows what the value of the money in your accounts will be? I can tell you that there are many politicians and aspirants buying right now to fund their campaigns in 2012 for that I can almost bet mid 2012 will be a great time to buy
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,218 Location: Nairobi
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Another option is to buy shares in Uganda or Tanzania in 2012... LOL... In 2008, the Ugandans were complaining that fuel prices were up coz of shortages since all/most fuel comes via Kenya. Uganda has started looking at Tanzania as an alternate route for fuel. Plus in a few years, they will be producing their own mafuta!!! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@Cicero reduce on kengen 2 much debt on their shoulders...mumias going forward i dont(comesa sugar) but 4 2010 its the best...kenya re going forward aint that promising,let me say i dont trust insurance firms to much risk...put in some hfck,scom n scan those r for the future...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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@VVS. I get shocked and annoyed at how we mess about with some serious cash cows eg the railway. How do you go around replacing Mercedes with VWs in the name of saving while you're running museum pieces on rail that breakdown all the time holding an entire port at ransom? Why spend billions building by-passes for trailers while all the cargo can be transported by train?
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,218 Location: Nairobi
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@the deal: except for safcom... u r mirroring my thots! KenGen is scary coz they took liberty with IAS 21. READ THE ANNUAL REPORT. Mumias should do well but I will wait for a dip. I have time coz next results in 6-7 months. BTW, I look at profits/EPS first... then the shares... coz no point in buying high P/E shares even for great firms... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,218 Location: Nairobi
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A must read: http://www.bloomberg.com...088&sid=aH4r5gwyu_OEGreedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/16/2007 Posts: 2,114
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@VVS,
Is this citadel the same as the one from Egypt?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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Not going to advice on specific shares because I don't belive in diversifying equities as a strategy, but my words for you is do you know how many others are thinking along the same lines i.e. selling in 2012? Are you better at selling than they are? Would it be better to sell just before end 2011 when everybody is chasing the dividend? So all over sudden your time horizon is 18-21months rather than 30 months... The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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NSE SHARES PERFORMANCE: THREE YEAR FORECAST WITH 2012 IN MIND
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