sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:The optimist wrote:This stock has been stuck in the 120-130 range for too long.
KES 250, my exit price...
What time frame? Coz 250 is easily doable if you can wait 10 years!
2 years. With 30-50% growth in earnings, we reach that valuation when the 2016 results are announced.
CFCS has very volatile earnings coz its South Sudan subsidiary + income from trading forex & bonds. I expect it will do well but I doubt it can do 30-50% for 2 years running.
2014 over 2013 should be good but reflected in the price.
2015 & 2016 (announced in 2017 - election year) will be competitive as other banks bulk up to compete for corporate customers and cross-border deals.
Nedbank has a representative office in Nairobi for those SA-Kenya deals [in conjunction with a local bank] to compete with CFCS. Barclays/ABSA plays in the same space.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett