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Whats Kengen on?
shrewdinvestor
#1 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 10:52:08 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 120
Location: Nyali
The sudden jump has caught me unawares.Whats this thing on?
Othelo
#2 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 10:54:37 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
What suddent jump....... from where to where?
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
shrewdinvestor
#3 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 11:00:39 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 120
Location: Nyali
Othelo wrote:
What suddent jump....... from where to where?

From 9.8 to 10.7..
However it has started correcting!
TheGeek
#4 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 11:22:03 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/3/2014
Posts: 245
shrewdinvestor wrote:
Othelo wrote:
What suddent jump....... from where to where?

From 9.8 to 10.7..
However it has started correcting!


This is a traders stock. Caution is the key word.
In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
shrewdinvestor
#5 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 11:43:09 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 120
Location: Nyali
All the same,I am boarding this counter any time soon..I hear they have something cooking before the first quarter.Definitely,its a buy for me,before the price skyrockets,hence my surprise at the sudden rise.
guru267
#6 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 12:43:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
shrewdinvestor wrote:
All the same,I am boarding this counter any time soon..I hear they have something cooking before the first quarter.Definitely,its a buy for me,before the price skyrockets,hence my surprise at the sudden rise.


What I don't get is how they will raise Kes 50Billion in a rights issue with only 2.2Billion shares!

Massive dilution coming up here...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Kenyan Oracle
#7 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 12:49:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 250
guru267 wrote:
shrewdinvestor wrote:
All the same,I am boarding this counter any time soon..I hear they have something cooking before the first quarter.Definitely,its a buy for me,before the price skyrockets,hence my surprise at the sudden rise.


What I don't get is how they will raise Kes 50Billion in a rights issue with only 2.2Billion shares!

Massive dilution coming up here...



Happy new year Madam Guru. nice to hear from you
You lose money chasing women, but you never lose women chasing money - NAS
Ericsson
#8 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 1:52:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
@guru267
The ksh.50billion will be raised easily since gava will defend it's share.
Gava raises ksh.35bn by converting the ksh.28bn they have loaned kengen and then raise the ksh.7bn in cash.
Other investors will be expected to raise ksh.15bn which will not be a tall order.
Most likely they will issue 5bn additional shares at ksh.10 to raise the amount
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
shrewdinvestor
#9 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 2:00:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 120
Location: Nyali
@Veteran,you surely deserve an award from the wazua fraternity for being so on point as well as sorting us n various sticky issues such as those!We are grateful!
guru267
#10 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 2:10:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
@guru267
The ksh.50billion will be raised easily since gava will defend it's share.
Gava raises ksh.35bn by converting the ksh.28bn they have loaned kengen and then raise the ksh.7bn in cash.
Other investors will be expected to raise ksh.15bn which will not be a tall order.
Most likely they will issue 5bn additional shares at ksh.10 to raise the amount


So we are looking at 7Billion shares in total after all is said and done Sad

After this kind of dilution they will have to earn a net profit of Kes 8Billion to earn the 2014 EPS Sad Sad
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Ericsson
#11 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 2:34:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
The net profit of ksh.8bn will not be a must.
What will happen is that the profits of kengen will be playing around the ksh.4 to 5bn because of the interest and loan repayments they have and will take to develop the various power projects
but amount of money allocated to dividend will be higher
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
mkonomtupu
#12 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 3:42:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
I thought the 2013 AGM authorized issue of 2.2 billion extra shares unless they hold an EGM to override that. Either way me thinks the rights issue will be a flop and for the small shareholders you are better off picking it up post rights
Ericsson
#13 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 9:44:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
@mkonomtupu
At the AGM they authorized an issue of an additional 7.8billion shares to bring the total number to 10 billion authorized shares


Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
mkonomtupu
#14 Posted : Tuesday, January 20, 2015 12:36:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Ericsson wrote:
@mkonomtupu
At the AGM they authorized an issue of an additional 7.8billion shares to bring the total number to 10 billion authorized shares




This is the resolution but i consider you an insider they way you predicted the profits for last year

Quote:
(ii) Capital Restructuring To consider and if thought fit, to pass the following resolution as an Ordinary Resolution:
“THAT subject to the passing of resolution (9)(i) above the Directors are hereby authorized to determine, pursue and implement a recapitalisation measure as a basis of providing the Company with the required capital and that should the needs of the Company require, issue upto two billion, two hundred and fifteen million, nine hundred and twenty-seven thousand, five hundred and twenty-eight (2,215,927,528) ordinary shares, of Kenya two Shillings fifty cents only (2.50) each in the capital of the Company, subject to any required regulatory and other approvals. At a price to be determined by the Directors to and amongst the holders of the issued ordinary shares of Kenya two Shillings fifty cents only (2.50) each in the capital of the Company registered at the close of business on such date and at such price as shall be determined by the Directors and notified to the members through the press or otherwise in proportion to the members’ respective holdings in the issued share capital of the Company subject to the Articles of Association of the Company, and to do all such things as may be necessary to give effect to this resolution.


My math tells me that the EPS will thus drop by half 1.29/2=0.645
Assuming even if 280MW plant delivers a modest 40% growth in earnings that 1.4 *0.645=0.903
with a P/e of around 7= 0.903*7=6.3 bob
Akenyan2014
#15 Posted : Tuesday, January 20, 2015 7:47:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
Is there a possibility of some trader 'stealing' the rights the way they did to UCHUMI, i.e pump all the bad news after rights price is announced and then buy all his stake at price below rights ?
mkonomtupu
#16 Posted : Wednesday, January 21, 2015 1:43:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Akenyan2014 wrote:
Is there a possibility of some trader 'stealing' the rights the way they did to UCHUMI, i.e pump all the bad news after rights price is announced and then buy all his stake at price below rights ?


Nope because here the GoK has 70% of the shareholding unlike in uchumi at 13%. But who knows what Mr. Market will bring...stay liquid
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#17 Posted : Monday, February 16, 2015 11:01:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli

@Murchr, as requested, herebelow find the Kengen monthly chart(MTF).
Interesting vol action so far this month at 6.79 month to date which equals the monthly average volume and a chance to hit the November high of 11.30 now that H1 results are around the corner.
Trading below SMA(20) 12.20.RSI at 45. Should it hit 50, then probably we can talk of a confirmation of the bull though the rights stand in the way of a serious bull.

@SufficientlyP
derick
#18 Posted : Monday, February 16, 2015 11:13:08 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/10/2015
Posts: 411
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:

@Murchr, as requested, herebelow find the Kengen monthly chart(MTF).
Interesting vol action so far this month at 6.79 month to date which equals the monthly average volume and a chance to hit the November high of 11.30 now that H1 results are around the corner.
Trading below SMA(20) 12.20.RSI at 45. Should it hit 50, then probably we can talk of a confirmation of the bull though the rights stand in the way of a serious bull.




@philanga thropic. Cheers bro
Your income is directly related to your philosophy, Not the economy.-Jim Rohn
murchr
#19 Posted : Monday, February 16, 2015 3:26:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:

@Murchr, as requested, herebelow find the Kengen monthly chart(MTF).
Interesting vol action so far this month at 6.79 month to date which equals the monthly average volume and a chance to hit the November high of 11.30 now that H1 results are around the corner.
Trading below SMA(20) 12.20.RSI at 45. Should it hit 50, then probably we can talk of a confirmation of the bull though the rights stand in the way of a serious bull.



Thanks cheers!
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
uchumi
#20 Posted : Monday, February 16, 2015 9:09:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/16/2006
Posts: 229
Kagame to switch on the 280mw project on Thursday this week.
“I don’t regret the things I’ve done, I regret the things I didn’t do when I had the chance.”
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