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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Today's Financial Times carries an article on Greece's attempt to woo China into buying $25 bn worth of bonds. The market is watching for implementation of Portugal's deficit cutting measures announced in its budget on Tuesday. Both underscore the fact that we are in a Debt Crisis that is far from over. "The world has issued so much debt in the past two years fighting the Great Recession that paying it all back is going to be hell--for Americans, along with everybody else. Taxes will have to rise around the globe, hobbling job growth and economic recovery. Traders like Bass could make a lot of money betting against sovereign debt the way they shorted subprime loans at the peak of the housing bubble. National governments will issue an estimated $4.5 trillion in debt this year, almost triple the average for mature economies over the preceding five years. The U.S. has allowed the total federal debt (including debt held by government agencies, like the Social Security fund) to balloon by 50% since 2006 to $12.3 trillion. The pain of repayment is not yet being felt, because interest rates are so low--close to 0% on short-term Treasury bills. Someday those rates are going to rise. Then the taxpayer will have the devil to pay..." Read more: http://www.forbes.com/fo...bal-debt-bomb_print.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Whilst the West dishoards of gold via the increasingly popular gold parties, the East is steadily accumulating. Despite the 400% gain in the value of the precious metal, citizens of the Anglo Saxon regions seem uninterested. The inviting conclusion is that those that the East is largely debt free and is able to utilise its savings in speculation and investment. "The assistant pushed the red velvet sacks across the counter discreetly. The customer quickly slipped them into her bag. With a brief, nervous look around, she walked briskly from the shop, already clutching her car keys. Few people feel comfortable lugging around a kilo of pure gold bars. But that doesn't stop Chinese shoppers from thronging to Caibai, the number one place for buying the precious metal. The Beijing store's 5,000 daily customers are at the forefront of a new gold rush. Since 2007, when South Africa fell behind, China has been the world's biggest gold producer. Now the World Gold Council and industry analysts believe it may have overtaken India – for centuries the dominant buyer – to become the biggest consumer too. The China Gold Association estimated demand would exceed 450 tonnes last year, up from 395.6 tonnes in 2008 (the actual figures are not yet available)." Read more: http://www.guardian.co.u...chinese-gold-rush-demand
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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The following articles are in resonance. CIC's push into commodity companies will inadvertently place Africa in its cross hairs. Inorder for efficient extration of resources, supporting infrastructure must be in place. The Chinese have entrenched themselves as top quality contractors. Good infrastructure is bound to attract additional investment in primary or extractive industries as well as manufacturing (secondary) and services (tertiary). A virtous cycle it is. " Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- China’s $300 billion sovereign wealth fund is considering new investments in resource-related companies after bets on commodities producers from the U.S. to Kazakhstan paid off in 2009. China Investment Corp. increased spending on energy and minerals assets last year to profit as the global economy recovers. The Beijing-based fund avoided the worst of the credit crunch in its first full year in 2008 and may have had a return of more than 10 percent in 2009, said London-based Jan Randolph, director of sovereign risk, analysis and forecasting at IHS Global Insight. “They have timed the upside well both in market terms, but also to fit in with the longer-term diversification strategy,” Randolph said...." Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com...0&sid=aeyawIJ8FKoQ#
"For some African countries, particularly those helped by Chinese investment and its thirst for energy and minerals, another boom may be approaching. Investors with cheap cash needing to spice up returns in more obscure parts of the globe are asking whether Africa can shift from final investment frontier into the emerging market mainstream. Reflecting this interest, Africa gets top billing at the annual meeting of the rich and powerful in Davos this week..." http://www.businessdaily.../-/9fnt5kz/-/index.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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An eye catching pictorial aptly named the "Ring of Fire" accompanies an articulate assessment of current economic events by Bill Gross, Managing Director of the world's largest bond fund, Pimco. "Investment management is a privileged profession – not just for being paid by X-times what you’re really worth to society, but from the standpoint of longevity. If you’re good, and you at least give the impression that you still have most of your faculties, you can literally hang around forever. James Carville, the well-meaning but evil-lookin’ guy from the Clinton Administration once remarked that in his next life he’d like to come back as a bond manager. He had part of it right – the influence, the wealth, and even fame – but there was no need to imagine himself as some cryogenically preserved Wall Street version of Ted Williams – he was young enough at the time to make the leap and still have a 20-year career ahead of him. Other professions do not afford such opportunities – the gold watch at 65 is not only symbolic, but a statement in most professions that says you are more or less washed up. Athletes have at most 20 years and musicians seem to have that brief window of creation as well. The Beatles, for instance, were done after a decade’s time. Paul is still writing songs, but the magic clearly disappeared in the 70s and now his concerts are “garden parties” of remembrances as opposed to creation...." Read more: http://europe.pimco.com/...oss+The+Ring+of+Fire.htm
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Follow the Money in the pictorial that potrays the flow of money from a central bank to the equity markets. It is one system through which money is created, the other being through leverage in the banking sector. The equity markets thus perform as hedges against domestic inflation. "The steps are as follows: * The Federal Reserve creates monetary policy and based on that policy provides increased liquidity to the markets or restricts fund flows. * The banking system is the preferred mechanism for sending the newly created funds into the economy and financial system. Some would argue that in recent years the financial markets themselves have been able to take newly created funds directly from the Federal Reserve and leverage the new money. * The funds created are then allocated by a pricing mechanism to either the economy or the financial system. * Those funds that reach the financial system are then allocated among five generic forms of financial instruments: cash, fixed income, equities, commodities, and currencies. * The money received in the equity markets is then allocated between multiple industry sectors...." Read more: http://ftalphaville.ft.c...kers-bove-the-blueprint/
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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As per my previous analysis (http://tinyurl.com/ybs5wbp), sugar continues to generate sweet returns for producers and investors. Consequently, there is marked interest in setting up sugar factories in Kenya. It comes as no surprise that the leader in the industry, Mumias Sugar, would enjoy bumper profits. "High sugar prices and cost cutting measures sweetened Mumias Sugar Co Ltd’s pre-tax profit by 561 per cent in the first six months to December 31, 2009. The listed miller’s pre-tax profit increased from Sh231 million in the previous financial year to Sh1.5 billion. A loss and profit statement issued on Friday, indicated that the company returned net revenues of Sh7.7 billion, which is 49 per cent higher than the Sh5.2 billion achieved over the same period last year. “The world’s sugar prices are at an all time high, ranging at $750 per tonne (about Sh57,000). This has resulted in improved sugar selling prices within the period. Currently, sugarcane prices have been increased from Sh2,850 to Sh3,148 per tonne,” read the statement from Ms Emily Otieno, the company’s secretary...." Read more: http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/hdd83lz/-/index.html
Long-term price chart: http://www.mrci.com/pdf/sb.pdf
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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Enlightening post (185) on money flows into equity markets as well as the Mumias one. Wanted you to check out the article in the blog below: http://www.zerohedge.com...new-bretton-woods-system“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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"Fear the Boom and Bust" a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem:http://www.youtube.com/w...feature=player_embedded
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Dear Friends,
I hope this day finds you and those near and dear in good health and high spirits.
There’s never a dull moment in the markets with several themes playing to our favour. Going into 2015, commodity related investments are providing leadership on an international level. The past decade has already witnessed technology, real estate and debt markets having their day in the sun. Using history as our guide the early 1900 saw the booms in railway stocks (1907), commodities (1919) and industrials led by autos and airlines (1929).
Kenyan sugar miller Mumias Sugar Company is good example of a commodity play that has benefited from a surge in international sugar prices. Its pre-tax profits were up by 561% in the first six months to December 31, 2009.
The yellow metal, gold is at the helm of the commodity bull market.
On the local scene, the Nairobi Stock Exchange bottomed on March 10th, 2009 (along with major global stock markets) at 2361 points. On that day, the Nation Newspaper ran a cover story titled “Four Big Losers in NSE Meltdown”. The index has witnessed a 48% appreciation reinforcing the adage by Warren Buffet “Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”
The NSE bull market on a cyclical perspective may well run for 11 years topping in 2013 or 14 years to coincide with the topping of the commodity cycle in 2016.
If you require assistance in investing your savings, are part of a group that requires investment advice or would like coaching on the workings of the markets, please inbox me at karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com.
Thank you for listening.
Kind regards,
K.K.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Raise your mugs and toast the commodity bull market! "The top price for Kenya's benchmark grade AA coffee edged up to $453 per 50-kg bag from $450 at the previous auction, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) said on Wednesday. AA coffee sold at between $453 and $191 per bag, while the top price for AB grade beans fell to $383 from $400 at the last sale, the NCE said in a market report. It said 22,540 bags were offered this week and 18,525 were sold. Last week, 21,714 bags were offered and 18,093 sold. The NCE said the average price for all grades rose 18 percent to $294.08 per bag compared with the previous auction...." Read more: http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/hdbqb7z/-/index.html
Long term chart: http://www.mrci.com/pdf/kc.pdf
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