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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,095 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:if kenyans do not fancy stocks, open it up for foreigners. weirdly it may increase the popularity of stocks when unprecedented bulls occur.
@VVS. I cashed in on HFck at 50. the rally was too much, awaiting rights issue next yr Smart. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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ike wrote:Mukiri wrote:hisah wrote:@Boris - keep an eye on mpesa bank as discussed (ref Jul 6th). When it breaks below 11 - 11.50 support level, the market will catch a cold. Britam, NSE, member and Centum bulls my prayers are still with you since Sept 23rd. Three simple rules to ride the equities market: - 1. In a bullish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. 2. In a bearish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. -> Some counters rally in bear markets. Learn to spot them3. Whether in a bullish or bear market, buy value. This way you benefit from the wake up (delayed) rally or the sizable selling discount. When many stocks outperform the market, a correction always emerges to reset valuations back to reality. If you know how to buy value, discount periods (corrections/selloffs) are the best hunting grounds and you always look forward to them This is a tricky one, right? Any current examples? KENGEN During strong bulls there are counters that rise steadily instead of partying along. They frustrate those holding them as others flip crazy gains. These withstand the crazy selloffs when the party is over.
Oversold laggards during strong bulls also tend to withstand strong selloffs! Why? Bad news has already cratered their price during strong bulls. E.g. If a sizable selloff shows up the likes of TPS, KQ, MSC, kengen, Uchumi would surprisingly just sell some. Sellers exhaustion unlike counters that flipped sizable gains, which have room for a large correction (panic selling).
The idea is to withstand the selloff volatility with minimal losses as you ride out the bear period.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mv_ufanisi wrote:Kenya doesn't need hot money. Hot money is the kind of money that comes chasing for short term gains in the capital markets. It's not real investment money that's coming to finance new industries or put up infrastructure which is what the country needs. If hot money is given free reign at the NSE, the NSE is going to become a much more risky place. It's going to increase the volatility of the stock market as hot money tends to exaggerate both bulls and bears. And of course, there's a broader macro economic risk which affects the currency exchange rates a la the Asian financial crisis when hot money decides to liquidate en masse leading to mass sell offs of the KES which could see the value of the currency plummet leading to a surge in the cost of basic commodities leading to riots in the streets - see what happened in the Asian financial crisis. Either the CBK imposes foreign exchange controls or the CMA imposes a minimum holding period for the foreign investors. At this stage the brokers can only see the big fat commissions that will come from this activity and should not be relied on to provide impartial advice. If we have a repeat of the Asian financial crisis in Kenya, it will likely be attributed to this shortsighted rule. On a different point, we are likely to see the likes of EABL and BAT become wholly owned foreign companies. Then they'll just register a company in Mauritius, stop paying 30% corporate tax given our mindless agreement with Mauritius - http://www.businessdaily.../-/q4nuo4z/-/index.html and just like that we will lose a lot of taxes that pay for public spending in Kenya. The market needs liquidity then strict rules. But not vice versa. We need that capital for expansion, it needs us to for gains. When the goal is achieved it'll move to the next hot bet. Booms and busts and repeat. That is always the cycle until a new monetary system comes along.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:ike wrote:Mukiri wrote:hisah wrote:@Boris - keep an eye on mpesa bank as discussed (ref Jul 6th). When it breaks below 11 - 11.50 support level, the market will catch a cold. Britam, NSE, member and Centum bulls my prayers are still with you since Sept 23rd. Three simple rules to ride the equities market: - 1. In a bullish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. 2. In a bearish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. -> Some counters rally in bear markets. Learn to spot them3. Whether in a bullish or bear market, buy value. This way you benefit from the wake up (delayed) rally or the sizable selling discount. When many stocks outperform the market, a correction always emerges to reset valuations back to reality. If you know how to buy value, discount periods (corrections/selloffs) are the best hunting grounds and you always look forward to them This is a tricky one, right? Any current examples? KENGEN During strong bulls there are counters that rise steadily instead of partying along. They frustrate those holding them as others flip crazy gains. These withstand the crazy selloffs when the party is over.
Oversold laggards during strong bulls also tend to withstand strong selloffs! Why? Bad news has already cratered their price during strong bulls. E.g. If a sizable selloff shows up the likes of TPS, KQ, MSC, kengen, Uchumi would surprisingly just sell some. Sellers exhaustion unlike counters that flipped sizable gains, which have room for a large correction (panic selling).
The idea is to withstand the selloff volatility with minimal losses as you ride out the bear period. Thank you. I'm learning. In a bull, become friends with volatile stocks. In a bear, seduce the hard gainers.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,497 Location: nairobi
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inspectordanger wrote:Ericsson wrote:When KCB trades at a constant price of ksh.46.50 for 7 consecutive days the NSE has bottomed out sources tells me KCB will hit 60 next year this inspector posted only once in october 2013 and vanished.. dangerous, he was a true prophet!!! HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,671 Location: NAIROBI
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KCB 60 tunayo ama hatuna Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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I expect kcb to hit 70 when they announce a 2.50 dividend "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,671 Location: NAIROBI
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ksh.75 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Where are you getting these figures from ?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,671 Location: NAIROBI
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@streetwise; You should know people Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,497 Location: nairobi
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@ericsson @mlennyma I love ua predictions.. But why would a KES 2.50 dividend move a stock from KES 60 to KES 75 and not KES 62.50 HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,671 Location: NAIROBI
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If you looked at the current valuation at a P/E of 13 and factoring full year results kcb will be trading at 73. Full year profits will be between 23.5 to 24 PBT and PAT at 16.5 to 17bn. On my analysis what would push up the price is not dividend but full year profits. Dividend my prediction will be 2.10 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 9/25/2012 Posts: 58 Location: kenia
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Do these figures reflect companies worthness or is just investors emotions??
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,671 Location: NAIROBI
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Young farmer; They represent worthness.Watch while the movie unfolds. KCB and Safaricom are tied hip-to-hip Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,671 Location: NAIROBI
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KCB now heading towards 65 having touched the 60 mark. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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Ericsson wrote:KCB now heading towards 65 having touched the 60 mark. Steroids. @Hisah, you failed this one completely
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,497 Location: nairobi
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i bought my KCB at 26.50 :) when obiero speaks wazua would be wise to listen HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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obiero wrote:i bought my KCB at 26.50 :) when obiero speaks wazua would be wise to listen Not always. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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obiero wrote:i bought my KCB at 26.50 :) when obiero speaks wazua would be wise to listen yaani how you've been advocating KQ its only 8% ya portfolio?ama ulipunguza? Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,497 Location: nairobi
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Boris Boyka wrote:obiero wrote:i bought my KCB at 26.50 :) when obiero speaks wazua would be wise to listen yaani how you've been advocating KQ its only 8% ya portfolio?ama ulipunguza? Added more KEGN recently hence affecting percentage of KQ HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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