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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
VituVingiSana
#5281 Posted : Tuesday, November 11, 2014 12:39:21 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,095
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
if kenyans do not fancy stocks, open it up for foreigners. weirdly it may increase the popularity of stocks when unprecedented bulls occur.

@VVS. I cashed in on HFck at 50. the rally was too much, awaiting rights issue next yr
Smart. Applause Applause Applause
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#5282 Posted : Tuesday, November 11, 2014 4:46:36 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
ike wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Boris - keep an eye on mpesa bank as discussed (ref Jul 6th). When it breaks below 11 - 11.50 support level, the market will catch a cold.

Britam, NSE, member and Centum bulls my prayers are still with you since Sept 23rd.

Three simple rules to ride the equities market: -

1. In a bullish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market.
2. In a bearish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. -> Some counters rally in bear markets. Learn to spot them
3. Whether in a bullish or bear market, buy value. This way you benefit from the wake up (delayed) rally or the sizable selling discount.

When many stocks outperform the market, a correction always emerges to reset valuations back to reality.

If you know how to buy value, discount periods (corrections/selloffs) are the best hunting grounds and you always look forward to them smile

This is a tricky one, right? Any current examples?

KENGEN

During strong bulls there are counters that rise steadily instead of partying along. They frustrate those holding them as others flip crazy gains. These withstand the crazy selloffs when the party is over.

Oversold laggards during strong bulls also tend to withstand strong selloffs! Why? Bad news has already cratered their price during strong bulls. E.g. If a sizable selloff shows up the likes of TPS, KQ, MSC, kengen, Uchumi would surprisingly just sell some. Sellers exhaustion unlike counters that flipped sizable gains, which have room for a large correction (panic selling).

The idea is to withstand the selloff volatility with minimal losses as you ride out the bear period.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#5283 Posted : Tuesday, November 11, 2014 5:01:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mv_ufanisi wrote:
Kenya doesn't need hot money. Hot money is the kind of money that comes chasing for short term gains in the capital markets. It's not real investment money that's coming to finance new industries or put up infrastructure which is what the country needs. If hot money is given free reign at the NSE, the NSE is going to become a much more risky place. It's going to increase the volatility of the stock market as hot money tends to exaggerate both bulls and bears. And of course, there's a broader macro economic risk which affects the currency exchange rates a la the Asian financial crisis when hot money decides to liquidate en masse leading to mass sell offs of the KES which could see the value of the currency plummet leading to a surge in the cost of basic commodities leading to riots in the streets - see what happened in the Asian financial crisis. Either the CBK imposes foreign exchange controls or the CMA imposes a minimum holding period for the foreign investors. At this stage the brokers can only see the big fat commissions that will come from this activity and should not be relied on to provide impartial advice. If we have a repeat of the Asian financial crisis in Kenya, it will likely be attributed to this shortsighted rule.
On a different point, we are likely to see the likes of EABL and BAT become wholly owned foreign companies. Then they'll just register a company in Mauritius, stop paying 30% corporate tax given our mindless agreement with Mauritius - http://www.businessdaily.../-/q4nuo4z/-/index.html and just like that we will lose a lot of taxes that pay for public spending in Kenya.

The market needs liquidity then strict rules. But not vice versa. We need that capital for expansion, it needs us to for gains. When the goal is achieved it'll move to the next hot bet. Booms and busts and repeat. That is always the cycle until a new monetary system comes along.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Mukiri
#5284 Posted : Tuesday, November 11, 2014 8:56:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
hisah wrote:
ike wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Boris - keep an eye on mpesa bank as discussed (ref Jul 6th). When it breaks below 11 - 11.50 support level, the market will catch a cold.

Britam, NSE, member and Centum bulls my prayers are still with you since Sept 23rd.

Three simple rules to ride the equities market: -

1. In a bullish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market.
2. In a bearish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. -> Some counters rally in bear markets. Learn to spot them
3. Whether in a bullish or bear market, buy value. This way you benefit from the wake up (delayed) rally or the sizable selling discount.

When many stocks outperform the market, a correction always emerges to reset valuations back to reality.

If you know how to buy value, discount periods (corrections/selloffs) are the best hunting grounds and you always look forward to them smile

This is a tricky one, right? Any current examples?

KENGEN

During strong bulls there are counters that rise steadily instead of partying along. They frustrate those holding them as others flip crazy gains. These withstand the crazy selloffs when the party is over.

Oversold laggards during strong bulls also tend to withstand strong selloffs! Why? Bad news has already cratered their price during strong bulls. E.g. If a sizable selloff shows up the likes of TPS, KQ, MSC, kengen, Uchumi would surprisingly just sell some. Sellers exhaustion unlike counters that flipped sizable gains, which have room for a large correction (panic selling).

The idea is to withstand the selloff volatility with minimal losses as you ride out the bear period.

Thank you.

I'm learning. In a bull, become friends with volatile stocks. In a bear, seduce the hard gainers.

Proverbs 19:21
obiero
#5285 Posted : Wednesday, December 03, 2014 9:08:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,497
Location: nairobi
inspectordanger wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
When KCB trades at a constant price of ksh.46.50 for 7 consecutive days the NSE has bottomed out

sources tells me KCB will hit 60 next year

this inspector posted only once in october 2013 and vanished.. dangerous, he was a true prophet!!!

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Ericsson
#5286 Posted : Thursday, December 04, 2014 2:15:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,671
Location: NAIROBI
KCB 60 tunayo ama hatuna
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
mlennyma
#5287 Posted : Thursday, December 04, 2014 5:01:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,182
Location: nairobi
I expect kcb to hit 70 when they announce a 2.50 dividend
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Ericsson
#5288 Posted : Thursday, December 04, 2014 5:33:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,671
Location: NAIROBI
ksh.75
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
streetwise
#5289 Posted : Thursday, December 04, 2014 5:34:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
Where are you getting these figures from ?
Ericsson
#5290 Posted : Thursday, December 04, 2014 5:36:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,671
Location: NAIROBI
@streetwise;
You should know people
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#5291 Posted : Thursday, December 04, 2014 8:35:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,497
Location: nairobi
@ericsson @mlennyma I love ua predictions.. But why would a KES 2.50 dividend move a stock from KES 60 to KES 75 and not KES 62.50

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Ericsson
#5292 Posted : Thursday, December 04, 2014 10:38:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,671
Location: NAIROBI
If you looked at the current valuation at a P/E of 13 and factoring full year results kcb will be trading at 73.
Full year profits will be between 23.5 to 24 PBT and PAT at 16.5 to 17bn.
On my analysis what would push up the price is not dividend but full year profits.
Dividend my prediction will be 2.10
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
young farmer
#5293 Posted : Friday, December 05, 2014 2:06:53 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/25/2012
Posts: 58
Location: kenia
Do these figures reflect companies worthness or is just investors emotions??
Ericsson
#5294 Posted : Friday, December 05, 2014 9:49:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,671
Location: NAIROBI
Young farmer;
They represent worthness.Watch while the movie unfolds.
KCB and Safaricom are tied hip-to-hip
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#5295 Posted : Friday, December 05, 2014 9:50:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,671
Location: NAIROBI
KCB now heading towards 65 having touched the 60 mark.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Mukiri
#5296 Posted : Saturday, December 06, 2014 3:54:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
Ericsson wrote:
KCB now heading towards 65 having touched the 60 mark.

Steroids. @Hisah, you failed this one completely

Proverbs 19:21
obiero
#5297 Posted : Saturday, December 06, 2014 6:43:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,497
Location: nairobi
i bought my KCB at 26.50 :) when obiero speaks wazua would be wise to listen

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
murchr
#5298 Posted : Saturday, December 06, 2014 7:21:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
obiero wrote:
i bought my KCB at 26.50 :) when obiero speaks wazua would be wise to listen


Not always.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Boris Boyka
#5299 Posted : Saturday, December 06, 2014 11:20:53 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
obiero wrote:
i bought my KCB at 26.50 :) when obiero speaks wazua would be wise to listen

yaani how you've been advocating KQ its only 8% ya portfolio?ama ulipunguza?
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
obiero
#5300 Posted : Saturday, December 06, 2014 2:06:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,497
Location: nairobi
Boris Boyka wrote:
obiero wrote:
i bought my KCB at 26.50 :) when obiero speaks wazua would be wise to listen

yaani how you've been advocating KQ its only 8% ya portfolio?ama ulipunguza?

Added more KEGN recently hence affecting percentage of KQ

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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