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Kenya Economy Watch
hisah
#841 Posted : Monday, November 10, 2014 5:27:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Kenya trade deficit widens to Sh792bn as imports increase

Quote:
The gap between imports and exports has widened to Sh792.2 billion in the first nine months of the year, defying the downward drift of crude oil prices in the global market. Imports grew 15 per cent over the period to hit Sh1.2 trillion by end of September, eclipsing exports that only grew by 7.5 per cent to Sh409 billion.


If brent was still trading above $115 this deficient would be wider.

USDKES is definitely headed past 90/-
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#842 Posted : Monday, November 10, 2014 5:53:09 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Fresh blow to banks as court sides with loan defaulter

Those of us holding bank stocks should take note of what is happening to default cases. Judiciary is becoming a curve ball.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#843 Posted : Wednesday, November 12, 2014 4:24:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
USDKES breaks above the 90 handle. Any chartist or TA fan will spot the breakout and will tell you that the highs are not yet done! We're getting started!

USDKES rally and NSE rally cannot be in the same sentence... Should brent oil prices rebound sharply back above $100, the current account deficient will smash KES while USD strengthens.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#844 Posted : Thursday, November 13, 2014 6:42:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
This is crazy admission by CBK!? Seriously? @scubidu @kizee1 @cde

http://www.businessdaily.../-/o31p83z/-/index.html

Oh dear KES... It'll definitely catch a cold.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#845 Posted : Thursday, November 13, 2014 7:21:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
This is crazy admission by CBK!? Seriously? @scubidu @kizee1 @cde

http://www.businessdaily.../-/o31p83z/-/index.html

Oh dear KES... It'll definitely catch a cold.


The velocity of money and a cashless economy. Discuss (20 mks). You could do a thesis on that @hisah smile I know of a certain CB who'd love to have it that good.

I think banks will be microscoped even further.

Mmmm...USD/KES. With most 'chumas' at 4 year lows bodes well for a net importer EA region nearterm. Wacha machuma zije!
kizee1
#846 Posted : Thursday, November 13, 2014 9:02:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
This is crazy admission by CBK!? Seriously? @scubidu @kizee1 @cde

http://www.businessdaily.../-/o31p83z/-/index.html

Oh dear KES... It'll definitely catch a cold.


im quite confused, what does this mean
hisah
#847 Posted : Saturday, November 15, 2014 4:49:44 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kizee1 wrote:
hisah wrote:
This is crazy admission by CBK!? Seriously? @scubidu @kizee1 @cde

http://www.businessdaily.../-/o31p83z/-/index.html

Oh dear KES... It'll definitely catch a cold.


im quite confused, what does this mean

The CB doesn't know how much money is in circulation! So who else is printing KES?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Angelica _ann
#848 Posted : Wednesday, November 26, 2014 4:58:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
Kshs. not fairing well........

NAIROBI, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Kenya's shilling fell to
a new three-year low on Tuesday, weakened by concerns the
central bank has wiped out some of its reserves and due to
falling revenue from the tourism and tea sectors, while shares
also retreated.
At the 1300 GMT close of trade, commercial banks posted the
shilling at 90.30/90.40 against the dollar, weaker than Monday's
closing level of 90.05/90.25 against the dollar.
"People are waiting to see if the central bank will
intervene again," said Ian Kahangara, a trader at the National
Bank of Kenya. He added the shilling had been negatively
impacted by recent interventions that had wiped out some of its
reserves.
The central bank sold dollars on Thursday and Friday last
week to prop up the shilling, on both occasions offering dollars
when the local currency was around the 90.30-level.
The shilling has weakened by 4.64 percent against the dollar
so far this year, under pressure from a fall in revenues from
tourism, a major hard currency earner that has been affected by
a spate of militant attacks in East Africa's biggest economy.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Ericsson
#849 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 1:44:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
China records a trade surplus of $49bn in the month of December.
The figure is nearly the Kenyan GDP.
Kenya's trade deficit widens due to weak exports
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
hisah
#850 Posted : Sunday, January 18, 2015 5:15:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Why ask 70B from IMF just after a very successful eurobond? I wonder what will be the terms and conditions this time with VAT, CGT etc already rammed through due to a similar 2011 ECF from IMF...

http://mobile.nation.co....l/-/6d7bvk/-/index.html

What signal is treasury feeding the market? This was before the SNB shockwave last Thursday that generated illiquidity chaos in the swiss franc market, which is still unravelling.

Oil is down, inflation is down, econ is buoyant apart from tourism, so what shocks (event risk) is the treasury guarding against?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Mainat
#851 Posted : Sunday, January 18, 2015 6:17:05 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
GoK is short of hard cash. By GoK I mean government of kwale in case NIS is on the case
Sehemu ndio nyumba
whiteowl
#852 Posted : Sunday, January 18, 2015 9:57:56 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
hisah wrote:
Why ask 70B from IMF just after a very successful eurobond? I wonder what will be the terms and conditions this time with VAT, CGT etc already rammed through due to a similar 2011 ECF from IMF...

http://mobile.nation.co....l/-/6d7bvk/-/index.html

What signal is treasury feeding the market? This was before the SNB shockwave last Thursday that generated illiquidity chaos in the swiss franc market, which is still unravelling.

Oil is down, inflation is down, econ is buoyant apart from tourism, so what shocks (event risk) is the treasury guarding against?

These IMF loans are never for the good of any country. They hurt the common citizens via inflation and cause govt paralysis when they default leading to bailouts (bigger loans to pay smaller loans). Making the cycle to be repeated in a more dramatic manner. Anyway this is the govt,I don't have high expectations especially on economic matters.
jawgey
#853 Posted : Sunday, January 18, 2015 6:18:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/13/2014
Posts: 386
Location: Denmark
Mainat wrote:
GoK is short of hard cash. By GoK I mean government of kwale in case NIS is on the case


haha mainat thats a good one..
Seeing is believing
wanyee
#854 Posted : Sunday, January 18, 2015 10:16:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
Mainat wrote:
GoK is short of hard cash. By GoK I mean government of kwale in case NIS is on the case

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Othelo
#855 Posted : Tuesday, January 27, 2015 10:59:28 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
http://www.businessdaily...4/-/i474s4/-/index.html
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
mlennyma
#856 Posted : Tuesday, January 27, 2015 11:29:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
http://mobile.reuters.co...t90864320150123?irpc=932
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
hisah
#857 Posted : Sunday, February 01, 2015 11:36:58 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
IMF meets to discuss Kenya’s loan request to cushion against shocks

Quote:
The board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will meet tomorrow to review Kenya’s request for a Sh68 billion ($750 million) loan to cushion the economy against external shocks.

Mr Rotich and Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Governor Njuguna Ndung’u wrote to IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, saying that Kenya’s economy was susceptible to external factors due to the country’s increasing integration in the global markets.

“Our economy remains vulnerable to exogenous shocks. Kenya’s growing financial integration in global markets, while creating new financing opportunities, has increased vulnerabilities to shifts in investors’ risk perception,” the two said.


What exactly is Treasury not saying?Anxious d'oh!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#858 Posted : Saturday, February 14, 2015 6:51:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
IMF meets to discuss Kenya’s loan request to cushion against shocks

Quote:
The board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will meet tomorrow to review Kenya’s request for a Sh68 billion ($750 million) loan to cushion the economy against external shocks.

Mr Rotich and Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Governor Njuguna Ndung’u wrote to IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, saying that Kenya’s economy was susceptible to external factors due to the country’s increasing integration in the global markets.

“Our economy remains vulnerable to exogenous shocks. Kenya’s growing financial integration in global markets, while creating new financing opportunities, has increased vulnerabilities to shifts in investors’ risk perception,” the two said.


What exactly is Treasury not saying?Anxious d'oh!


Apparently this is supposed to be some form of insurance

Quote:
WASHINGTON - Kenya obtained nearly $700 million worth of precautionary loan support from the International Monetary Fund on Monday as the country undertakes important economic reforms.

The IMF approved a $497.1 loan under its Stand-By Arrangement facility and another $191.2 million under its Stand-By Credit facility.

Both are one-year loans that the IMF said Nairobi does not plan to draw on "unless external shocks lead to an actual balance-of-payment need."


"The Kenyan authorities' prudent macroeconomic policies and major institutional and economic reforms of recent years have contributed to macroeconomic stability, higher growth, and increased external buffers," IMF deputy managing director Naoyuki Shinohara said.

"Nonetheless, the economy remains vulnerable to shocks arising from Kenya's growing integration into global markets, security concerns, and extreme weather events.

"In this context, the new arrangements with the Fund provide a policy anchor for continued reforms, and would mitigate the impact of shocks if they materialize."

The Kenyan economy is expected to grow 6.1 percent in the year to June 30, picking up to 7.0 percent in the next year.

But the IMF said that poor rains have hit the agricultural sector, and security problems are also hampering tourism.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Othelo
#859 Posted : Monday, February 16, 2015 5:59:14 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
http://www.businessdaily.../-/2i3pnlz/-/index.html

Rating agency warns banks of looming bad loans risk


Rapid lending growth risks plunging Kenyan banks into a pit of bad loans that the lenders are ill-prepared to absorb, international rating agency Moody’s has warned.

The situation is particularly worrying because the banks are not setting aside enough cash to shield themselves against a possible surge in bad loans, Moody’s said, echoing similar warnings by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Treasury.

“We caution that specific provisioning levels are already low, at less than 40 per cent of non-performing loans (NPLs), and a slight increase in NPLs could quickly widen the provision gap and, with it, materially reduce net earnings further down the road,” Moody’s said in its latest report.

The agency expects the mountain of bad loans to grow in the next 12 to 18 months when it will start eating up the banks’ earnings that have also been growing robustly in the past three years.

These fears have led the IMF to suggest that the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) should increase lending rates to check credit expansion.

“The IMF recommends that the CBK should remain vigilant and act as needed to head off any pressure from rapid credit growth and the envisaged scaling up of infrastructure spending (potentially by raising interest rates),” said the multi-lateral lender in a letter to the Treasury.

Last year, Kenyan banks expanded their loan book by 22.8 per cent to Sh1.97 trillion – the fastest growth in four years. During the same period non-performing loans grew by 30.6 per cent to Sh108 billion but still accounted for a paltry 5.4 per cent of the total loan book down from 5.8 per cent in 2013.

The IMF says that the coverage ratio, the amount set aside as provision for bad loans, as a ratio of total non-performing loans, has been declining and requires attention.

continues ...........
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
murchr
#860 Posted : Monday, February 16, 2015 8:46:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
the Star wrote:
BORROWERS will soon easily identify cheap lenders as the Central Bank of Kenya embarks on preparing a comparative analysis of loans offered by financial institutions.

CBK announced on Friday that it was preparing to publish Kenya Banks' Reference rate data "to enhance transparency."

KBRR was introduced in July last year aimed at increasing transparency in pricing of loans. The rate is determined by the market and not specific to any bank. It will computed as an average of the Central Bank Rate and the 91-day Treasury bill rate and all banks are compelled to use it in their pricing of loans. KBRR is revised every six months.

"The Central Bank will publish comparative data on ‘K’ for various loan products offered by banks. This will facilitate decision making by customers and promote competition in credit pricing," said the bank on Friday


Move is welcomed
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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