Wazua
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Too many HELLOS, Time to quit stocks!
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mwekez@ji wrote:hisah wrote:@mwekezaji - if that is material news it should be announced, right? Indeed. Changamoto kwa nse! Still no announcement. Was it a rumour? But being in the markets long enough, rumours are news which are eventually published ... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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hisah wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:NMG surprised me, it has not gained for aloooong time then lost substantially! ppl might be positioning??? could be like stan chart. down 280 then up to 340 ,am tempted to touch!! hope it doesn't go BMB way. NMG breakout to the downside!
Vol spike, but prices have refused to break above 350. Not bullish for now until that resistance gives in. If the vol spike was in Apr 2013, I'd expect a sizable selloff coz that would have been a classic upthrust sellside action. I expect the price to slide, but not below 200 - 220 support zone. Below that zone would put bulls under pressure.
As @sparkly puts it the bluechips have steamed off. I've also stated a while back that the heavyweights are top heavy. A shakeout is coming and the likes of korch, olympia, paka et al which are bogus quality stocks cannot support the lofty market valuations.
Few bargains remain like kplc and TPS, which should be able to withstand the shakeout. I'm also speculating with MSC (high risk - balls of steel needed). I don't see why gok should kill this sugar firm.
So @hisah is a speculator?! The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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jerry wrote:hisah wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:NMG surprised me, it has not gained for aloooong time then lost substantially! ppl might be positioning??? could be like stan chart. down 280 then up to 340 ,am tempted to touch!! hope it doesn't go BMB way. NMG breakout to the downside!
Vol spike, but prices have refused to break above 350. Not bullish for now until that resistance gives in. If the vol spike was in Apr 2013, I'd expect a sizable selloff coz that would have been a classic upthrust sellside action. I expect the price to slide, but not below 200 - 220 support zone. Below that zone would put bulls under pressure.
As @sparkly puts it the bluechips have steamed off. I've also stated a while back that the heavyweights are top heavy. A shakeout is coming and the likes of korch, olympia, paka et al which are bogus quality stocks cannot support the lofty market valuations.
Few bargains remain like kplc and TPS, which should be able to withstand the shakeout. I'm also speculating with MSC (high risk - balls of steel needed). I don't see why gok should kill this sugar firm.
So @hisah is a speculator?! @jerry partly @hisah like many seasoned fellows are HYBRID greater %investor and small % speculator Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Boris Boyka wrote:jerry wrote:hisah wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:NMG surprised me, it has not gained for aloooong time then lost substantially! ppl might be positioning??? could be like stan chart. down 280 then up to 340 ,am tempted to touch!! hope it doesn't go BMB way. NMG breakout to the downside!
Vol spike, but prices have refused to break above 350. Not bullish for now until that resistance gives in. If the vol spike was in Apr 2013, I'd expect a sizable selloff coz that would have been a classic upthrust sellside action. I expect the price to slide, but not below 200 - 220 support zone. Below that zone would put bulls under pressure.
As @sparkly puts it the bluechips have steamed off. I've also stated a while back that the heavyweights are top heavy. A shakeout is coming and the likes of korch, olympia, paka et al which are bogus quality stocks cannot support the lofty market valuations.
Few bargains remain like kplc and TPS, which should be able to withstand the shakeout. I'm also speculating with MSC (high risk - balls of steel needed). I don't see why gok should kill this sugar firm.
So @hisah is a speculator?! @jerry partly @hisah like many seasoned fellows are HYBRID greater %investor and small % speculator You need platinum balls for MSC! Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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With GOK issuing 11% tax free bonds worth 20B, expect migration from stocks to accelerate. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,547 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:With GOK issuing 11% tax free bonds worth 20B, expect migration from stocks to accelerate. @sparkly wacha kutia watu baridi. some stocks have multiples that make the 11% look like loose change. think centum, kcb, panafrica
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:With GOK issuing 11% tax free bonds worth 20B, expect migration from stocks to accelerate. @sparkly wacha kutia watu baridi. some stocks have multiples that make the 11% look like loose change. think centum, kcb, panafrica Which of those are ASSURED of 11% after tax return (capital gains and dividends) in the next one year? Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/13/2011 Posts: 284 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:jerry wrote:hisah wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:NMG surprised me, it has not gained for aloooong time then lost substantially! ppl might be positioning??? could be like stan chart. down 280 then up to 340 ,am tempted to touch!! hope it doesn't go BMB way. NMG breakout to the downside!
Vol spike, but prices have refused to break above 350. Not bullish for now until that resistance gives in. If the vol spike was in Apr 2013, I'd expect a sizable selloff coz that would have been a classic upthrust sellside action. I expect the price to slide, but not below 200 - 220 support zone. Below that zone would put bulls under pressure.
As @sparkly puts it the bluechips have steamed off. I've also stated a while back that the heavyweights are top heavy. A shakeout is coming and the likes of korch, olympia, paka et al which are bogus quality stocks cannot support the lofty market valuations.
Few bargains remain like kplc and TPS, which should be able to withstand the shakeout. I'm also speculating with MSC (high risk - balls of steel needed). I don't see why gok should kill this sugar firm.
So @hisah is a speculator?! @jerry partly @hisah like many seasoned fellows are HYBRID greater %investor and small % speculator You need platinum balls for MSC! @Hisah, I agree with your take on Kenya Power and TPS, those two are definitely high quality good bargains. However, MSC is not even worth speculating, this will finish you like Ebola!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,547 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:With GOK issuing 11% tax free bonds worth 20B, expect migration from stocks to accelerate. @sparkly wacha kutia watu baridi. some stocks have multiples that make the 11% look like loose change. think centum, kcb, panafrica Which of those are ASSURED of 11% after tax return (capital gains and dividends) in the next one year? KCB is assured 3.5% dividend yield plus atleast 10% organic share growth, making in all 13.5%minimum, but it could even go to 30% or more!!!
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,120 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:With GOK issuing 11% tax free bonds worth 20B, expect migration from stocks to accelerate. @sparkly wacha kutia watu baridi. some stocks have multiples that make the 11% look like loose change. think centum, kcb, panafrica Which of those are ASSURED of 11% after tax return (capital gains and dividends) in the next one year? KCB is assured 3.5% dividend yield plus atleast 10% organic share growth, making in all 13.5%minimum, but it could even go to 30% or more!!! There is nothing like 'guaranteed' organic share growth. 11% is net of all taxes whereas Dividends are subject to 5% W/Tax. Add the CGT [and the confusion surrounding it] for a reduction in net value received. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,547 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:With GOK issuing 11% tax free bonds worth 20B, expect migration from stocks to accelerate. @sparkly wacha kutia watu baridi. some stocks have multiples that make the 11% look like loose change. think centum, kcb, panafrica Which of those are ASSURED of 11% after tax return (capital gains and dividends) in the next one year? KCB is assured 3.5% dividend yield plus atleast 10% organic share growth, making in all 13.5%minimum, but it could even go to 30% or more!!! There is nothing like 'guaranteed' organic share growth. 11% is net of all taxes whereas Dividends are subject to 5% W/Tax. Add the CGT [and the confusion surrounding it] for a reduction in net value received. Ninachosema ni kwamba kuna uwezekano wa hisa fulani kupita hio asilimia 11%.. Lakini serikali kweli imepatiana nafasi murwa, mufti kwa waekezaji..
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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Wawekezaji. Kiswahili si rahisi! The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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jerry wrote:Wawekezaji. Kiswahili si rahisi! Sijajua kama unamukosoa Obiero au laa walakini tia bidii mwenzangu. umoja- mwekezaji wingi - waekezaji ,mfano katika sentensi. Jukwaa la waekezaji lazinduliwa mjini Nairobi. Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/13/2014 Posts: 386 Location: Denmark
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Boris Boyka wrote:jerry wrote:Wawekezaji. Kiswahili si rahisi! Sijajua kama unamukosoa Obiero au laa walakini tia bidii mwenzangu. umoja- mwekezaji wingi - waekezaji ,mfano katika sentensi. Jukwaa la waekezaji lazinduliwa mjini Nairobi. waWEkezaji Seeing is believing
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Prices heading lower and lower... Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,547 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:Prices heading lower and lower... This has always happened in late December. Nothing new
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:Prices heading lower and lower... This has always happened in late December. Nothing new indeed prices do dip in Dec, but this time something is different. Vol spike/heavy turnover in Dec (vacation break period esp foreign deals). First time I'm seeing such heavy trading activity that mirrors end of Jan/start of Feb when trading desks are back in operation.
Sum up the turnover in Dec and compare with the other months in 2014. Weird activity. Then do an average for all Dec months and notice the abnormal turnover. Why are the exchange bar guys this busy in the market during xmas period? Aren't they supposed to be on holiday? Scangroup trades 1.6B turnover in two days on xmas week?! Abnormal Dec activity.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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hisah wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:Prices heading lower and lower... This has always happened in late December. Nothing new indeed prices do dip in Dec, but this time something is different. Vol spike/heavy turnover in Dec (vacation break period esp foreign deals). First time I'm seeing such heavy trading activity that mirrors end of Jan/start of Feb when trading desks are back in operation.
Sum up the turnover in Dec and compare with the other months in 2014. Weird activity. Then do an average for all Dec months and notice the abnormal turnover. Why are the exchange bar guys this busy in the market during xmas period? Aren't they supposed to be on holiday? Scangroup trades 1.6B turnover in two days on xmas week?! Abnormal Dec activity. Meanwhile the Dow Jones is setting new record highs. How soon will NSE follow ?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,547 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:Prices heading lower and lower... This has always happened in late December. Nothing new indeed prices do dip in Dec, but this time something is different. Vol spike/heavy turnover in Dec (vacation break period esp foreign deals). First time I'm seeing such heavy trading activity that mirrors end of Jan/start of Feb when trading desks are back in operation.
Indeed the turnover is huge. Must be linked to foreigner caution on CGT. As for the exchange bar, money never sleeps :) Bargains have called us out from holiday..
Sum up the turnover in Dec and compare with the other months in 2014. Weird activity. Then do an average for all Dec months and notice the abnormal turnover. Why are the exchange bar guys this busy in the market during xmas period? Aren't they supposed to be on holiday? Scangroup trades 1.6B turnover in two days on xmas week?! Abnormal Dec activity. Bargains have called us out from holiday. Money never sleeps.. As for the huge turnover, must be foreigner caution on CGT
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,460
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obiero wrote:hisah wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:Prices heading lower and lower... This has always happened in late December. Nothing new indeed prices do dip in Dec, but this time something is different. Vol spike/heavy turnover in Dec (vacation break period esp foreign deals). First time I'm seeing such heavy trading activity that mirrors end of Jan/start of Feb when trading desks are back in operation.
Indeed the turnover is huge. Must be linked to foreigner caution on CGT. As for the exchange bar, money never sleeps :) Bargains have called us out from holiday..
Sum up the turnover in Dec and compare with the other months in 2014. Weird activity. Then do an average for all Dec months and notice the abnormal turnover. Why are the exchange bar guys this busy in the market during xmas period? Aren't they supposed to be on holiday? Scangroup trades 1.6B turnover in two days on xmas week?! Abnormal Dec activity. Bargains have called us out from holiday. Money never sleeps.. As for the huge turnover, must be foreigner caution on CGT And with technology you just make your orders by the beach. 30 seconds and you are back on holiday! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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