"My book "Boom," written in the early 90s, basically makes the case that if you are not in China and Africa you are nowhere." - Jim Sinclair (www.jsmineset.com)

"Last week I attended a World Bank discussion on "Chinese Investment in Africa's Industrial Zones: prospects, challenges, and opportunity for Africa". Such "one-stop shop" zones have captured the interest of a variety of Chinese businesses, in addition to the World Bank, which is in talks with Beijing to collaboratively set up low-cost factories in these zones.

Industrial clusters have been widespread in Africa for decades, yet successes, up until very recently, have been limited. There are three main obstacles:

1. Planning (location, legal framework, overall strategy)
2. "Doing Business" (infrastructure, administrative weakness, poor management)
3. Wider Competitiveness (policy uncertainty, poor domestic business climate, lack of export competitiveness)

Yet in spite of these shortcomings, China is keen to include Africa in its strategy to build over 50 overseas economic zones. Why?...."

Read more:

http://seekingalpha.com/...frica-s-industrial-zones

Asset market booms and busts are largely the product of foreign capital. The Nairobi Stock Exchange bottomed in the first week of March at about 2300 points. Coincidentally, this proved to be the period about which most stock markets bottomed around the globe.The cycle turned at the extreme low in bearish sentiment as most believed their stock portfolios would hit zero.

At present, the market is scaling a "wall of worry" as it tries to get over the outcroppings of fear still visible from the dizzying descent. Please glance and the "Tao of Markets" chart below the following article:

"A stocks rally could be in the offing at the Nairobi Stock Exchange as shares in Safaricom and Kenya Electricity Generating Company excited the market on Wednesday, buoyed by bullish retail sentiment and renewed interest from foreign investors.

Safaricom closed at a one and half year high of Sh5.65 during Wednesday’s trading riding on what dealers said was increased foreign investors’ interest.

On Tuesday, it closed at Sh5.20 with 52 million shares changing hands.

Dealers said foreign investors have in the past days showed increased appetite in the market, especially in counters such as Safaricom, Kenya Airways, Mumias and KenGen...."

http://www.businessdaily...6/-/6akyum/-/index.html

The Tao of Markets:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com..._yGl8Wn48BQQ3dJTiuUq.png

Nice post. I particularly like the last graph showing the CPI trends since 1971 when the US changed the monetary system. There are some like Paul Grignon who believe the banking system can work and the only problem is that bank interest is not recycled well (as borrowers need to earn the interest due to the shortage of money). He believes that if 100% of interest earnings/income were re-spent (by the banks) then our banking system could function somewhat efficiently.

The article mentions changes to the inflation barometer as well, a policy change that is finally being implemented in Kenya; i.e., changing the method of calculation, composition of the basket and weighting. The previous CPI based in 1997 at 100 points and rose to 239.81 in Dec-07 (up 139.81); by the time the CPI was obsolete it hit 345.03 in Sep-09 (up 105.22). The dramatic change in CPI since the start of 2008 is attributed to food inflation and there is news floating around that we'll have food shortages by April 2010.

The new Kenyan CPI was re-based to Oct 2005 when food inflation was very low at 2.3% (old calculation) vs 44.2% in May 2008. If overall CPI is highly correlated to food inflation then what happened in May 2008 that made inflation jump so high? Was this inflation a monetary phenomenon or was there a perpetual shortage in the supply of food between Oct-2005 to May-2008?

I was recently reading the NSE's 'Exchange' quarterly magazine and one of the comments about the new inflation stats is that fund/asset managers don't have to work as hard now (justifying returns). What does this mean in terms of asset allocation: Equities, Fixed Income or Others. Is this a move that favours Equities?

Nway karanjakinuthia. I only want to know three things:- How does one practically go about buying Gold? Do individuals just buy them like any other commodity, like a pound of meat? Have you personally bought gold? Thanks

The case for gold.

"Let me get right to the point. Gold’s going to $5,000 an ounce.

I know that sounds preposterous to most people. In fact, some of you probably think I’m crazy.

But for a whole host of reasons, $5,000 may well end up being a conservative estimate.

So before you start posting comments that I’ve gone bonkers, hear me out…

In 2001, gold traded as low as $255 an ounce. Within eight years, its price had quadrupled to more than $1,100 an ounce. How many investors thought that was possible, or even likely? Probably not very many.

Yet, it happened...."

Read more:

http://www.dailymarkets....sons-gold-will-hit-5000/

@ Scubidu. Karibu sana, I am at your service.

The statistics given in the article are correct. The gold industry is miniscule in comparision to corporate titans such as Microsoft and Wal Mart. On our Facebook page a while back, I posted a video clip of a guy in the U.S. who was selling a one ounce Canadian Maple Leaf worth $1,100 for $50. There were no takers.

Appreciate the fact that for the Western world to embrace gold whole heartedly, the Dollar has to sing its swan song. No politician in that sphere wants that to happen. Look to the East for both central banks and the citizenry actively hoarding the yellow metal.

The World Bank article is correct over the past decade, give and take a few months. The Kenyan market took off in earnest in 2002 as did the international markets post September 11, 2001. The former topped in December 2006 while the latter in October 2007. They both correlerated at the March, 2009 bottom.

However, the Kenyan market declined from 1992 to 2002 whilst the U.S. market boomed due to a concentration of capital in the technology and internet sectors.

wewe @mathenge what is worng with my name being carygoh ?una shida

@ VituVingiSana

The proof is in the pudding:

Man tries to sell $1100 one ounce gold coin for $50; no takers

http://www.youtube.com/w...feature=player_embedded

Greece has gotten an earful from all quarters as concerns its fiscal position. Market participants, alarmed that Greece is Europe's Achilles' Heel, have in recent days sold off the Euro in favour of the Dollar. As the article points out, Greece is a speck in Europe's eye whilst California looks increasingly like a log in the U.S. eye.

"Asked about any threat to the euro because of Greece's problems, Trichet pointed out that Greece's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a mere 2.5% - 3% of the euro zone GDP. In California, which has its own set of severe fiscal challenges, the magnitude of the problem is far larger (California's GDP is over 12% of U.S. GDP). He went on to stress that euro zone budget deficits currently amount to about 6.5% - 7% in the aggregate, compared to 12% in the U.S..."

Read more:

http://www.merkfunds.com...reece-No-California.html

Mouse-over a commodity in the key on the right of the graphic in link below to view its trend through the decade:

http://www.usfunds.com/r...75&CFTOKEN=99692872


"We’ve updated our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, and the headline news should come as no surprise – 2009 was a complete turnaround for the sector’s 2008 performance.

Commodities (as measured by the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index) rose 24 percent in 2009, the largest single-year increase since the early 1970s.

In 2008, only one of the 14 commodities in the table finished positive – gold, up a scant 5.8 percent – while five finished with losses exceeding 50 percent, led by lead at a negative 63.5 percent.

Last year, only three of the 14 ended up underwater for the year, with coal coming in at rock bottom at minus 13 percent. Four of the industrial metals – copper, lead, zinc and palladium – each rose more than 100 percent in 2009...."

Read more:

http://www.resourceinves...;cmpid=resourceinvestor

The year 2007 was the peak of a 52 year bull market in U.S. real estate (hat tip to Martin Armstrong). I recall an article in either Fortune or Forbes of a gentleman who owned 11 properties and he had never seen some of them. I also recall one of the episodes of "The Apprentice" dominated by real estate practitioners.

This has the character of a lengthy bear market.

"A group led by Tishman Speyer Properties has decided to give up the sprawling Peter Cooper Village and Stuyvesant Town apartment complex in Manhattan to its creditors in the collapse of one of the most high-profile deals of the real-estate boom.

The decision comes after the venture between Tishman and BlackRock Inc. defaulted on the $4.4 billion debt used to help finance the deal. The venture acquired the 56-building, 11,000-unit property for $5.4 billion in 2006—the most ever paid for a single residential property in the U.S. The venture had been struggling for months to restructure the debt but capitulated facing a massive debt load and a weak New York City economy that has undercut rents and demand for high-priced apartments..."

Read more:

http://ftalphaville.ft.c...ultimate-in-jingle-mail/