@moneydust:

Forget 2009... look ahead... so it matters very little if the 3Q growth was 0%, what matters is what we think the growth will be in 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, 4Q 2010

Well, if you wait until after the fact you may miss the ride. Even my favorite investor talks about robins & spring... You keep on referring to 2009... I (happily) said bye-bye to 2009 at 11.59.59pm on 31 Dec 2009.

2009 was tough for all banks. So no bonus in 2009... well, it is 2010... if the numbers are good the staff might get 2x the bonus!

@moneydust. Even I don't understand the optimism either, but I'm slowly reading the mood and trying to cover my bases by buying into those sectors expected to recover. Why is KQ rising but not TPS?

I think Eqty bank buyers know what's going to happen (info seems to get out somehow), but I'm impressed that they've survived this long while others such as Krep, co-op experience problems.

Foreign buyers can't be trusted to give clear signals but a rally such as the Mumias rally is driven by the locals (mostly, I think), which I believe can be sustained. I think we need to read the volumes on all those counters where foreign buy and react accordingly when these volumes drop.

Traditionally I believe market movements in the months of January and July have always mislead people and are often periods where there are peaks or significant rallies. I don't pay much attention to it but enjoy the ride til the market corrects itself in March.

Yesterday my broker friend let me use his graphing software to track the prices for following counters: NIC Bank, Mumias Sugar, Kenya Re, Kenya Airways, EABL, Barclays Bank and KCB.

If anyone is interested in technical analysis graphs I have put some of the graphs on scribd.com. click the link below to check out the graphs:

http://www.scribd.com/do...cators-19th-January-2010

@ scubidu
You mention KQ, I dont know what has so positevely changed for this co...u could b havin some insider info..please share

last time I checked oil prices were going higher..last time they made the wrong hedges and paid for it.R u sure they have got it right this time?

The rally has bn too strong for my liking ie in the abscence of fresh info.

Its good to b optimistic..I also want the economy to improve since its easier to make money in a booming economy than a tough one.However since I cant force my wishes into reality I swim with prevailin wave

On the other hand...
Over time I have learnt most money in the bourse is made during periods of uncetainty since there is volatility..the trick then is to know when to get in and also out..and so on.The NSE is therefore best placed to provide the best returns to the savvy investor

Happy hunting to all.

The rally will evaporate soon unless em foreigners show up with their big pockets n rescue scom even KQ is starting to diverge...price is rising while on balance volume is falling...

@moneydust. I have no insider info on KQ rally but people seemed to have reacted b4 getting all info. Maybe it's the feel-good-factor kicking in or the fact that the share was ripe for a correction having being oversold.

They normally make a 3rd qtr announcement in January but I haven't heard anything. There are legitimate reasons for good GDP growth in 2010 with recoveries in key sectors such as transport & comm as well as tourism (that will support KQs earnings).

But another factors such as the impact inflation will have in deflating Kenya's nominal GDP growth in 2010. An interesting estimate by the World Bank is that the GDP Deflator is expected to drop to 7.5% in 2010 from 12.5% in 2009 and 13.1% in 2008, so real economic growth will def be higher this year.

It's all a game of numbers and if the economy looks to be growing, markets will rally, KQ included. As you mentioned it's important to know how to trade the volatile markets and I want to introduce a new post called 'Tech Corner' that can help us know when to get in and also out.

Vvs that line was part of communist demagougry in tz and other countries to create fear of capitalism. I just feel throwing that line might awaken wanjiku into action.

Let 'foreigners' play the market... Kwani???

If the price is low... u buy... if high u sell...

Take Safaricom... Kenyans were selling it till it came to 2.50... When it was 6... you could have sold...

Kwani??? Those foreigners are holding a gun to your head as to when you can buy or sell???

It looks like the market is cooling off because the rally has slowed down for most counters. I'm sticking to my guns coz i have gained substantial ground in recovering my paper losses. Just 3% to go. Meanwhile, Mr. Aly Khan Satchu has locked us out of his site where i was checking live trading. i can't blame his coz we slowed his site and paid clients need quality. Now now, how much does he charge, it's time i stopped kudoea kwingi.

in the profit taking, piling unheralded Kenya-Re and HFCK...