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Despite the rally, notable laggards.
moneydust
#21 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 11:58:43 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 304
@vitumob I fail to understand the optimism..according to the authorities the economic growth rate of 3rd qtr 2009 was 0%....contrary to expectations.

I heard from a credible source that eqty bank failed last yr to pay their employees their usual dec bonus....loans r no longer granted as easily as in the past...
I would rather wait for the economy to pick up than act on my anticipations...

Its a fact foreigners r behind the rise in shares..how strong is their interest?...Is it sustainable?..history shows without strong local participation in the bourse then the bull run is jst a mirage...

My Qsn remains where wil the mkt head once the companies start reportin declinin/stagnatin profits for the year ended and comin yr.
Case in point cmc after announcin results was headed south b4 it was lifted by the current excitement....

VituVingiSana
#22 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 1:02:18 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
@moneydust:

Forget 2009... look ahead... so it matters very little if the 3Q growth was 0%, what matters is what we think the growth will be in 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, 4Q 2010

Well, if you wait until after the fact you may miss the ride. Even my favorite investor talks about robins & spring... You keep on referring to 2009... I (happily) said bye-bye to 2009 at 11.59.59pm on 31 Dec 2009.

2009 was tough for all banks. So no bonus in 2009... well, it is 2010... if the numbers are good the staff might get 2x the bonus!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#23 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 1:05:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Can I predict the future? No... otherwise I would be the richest or happiest or both man in the world... maybe...

As for price movements AFTER the results are out... I do not know... I prefer to think of results being at best a guide to the company's health...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Scubidu
#24 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 1:33:35 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@moneydust. Even I don't understand the optimism either, but I'm slowly reading the mood and trying to cover my bases by buying into those sectors expected to recover. Why is KQ rising but not TPS?

I think Eqty bank buyers know what's going to happen (info seems to get out somehow), but I'm impressed that they've survived this long while others such as Krep, co-op experience problems.

Foreign buyers can't be trusted to give clear signals but a rally such as the Mumias rally is driven by the locals (mostly, I think), which I believe can be sustained. I think we need to read the volumes on all those counters where foreign buy and react accordingly when these volumes drop.

Traditionally I believe market movements in the months of January and July have always mislead people and are often periods where there are peaks or significant rallies. I don't pay much attention to it but enjoy the ride til the market corrects itself in March.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
ecstacy
#25 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 3:48:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
with the GoK Donor Funds monitoring project contract, AccessKenya is headed places as a Software player...
Scubidu
#26 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2010 6:48:30 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Yesterday my broker friend let me use his graphing software to track the prices for following counters: NIC Bank, Mumias Sugar, Kenya Re, Kenya Airways, EABL, Barclays Bank and KCB.

If anyone is interested in technical analysis graphs I have put some of the graphs on scribd.com. click the link below to check out the graphs:

http://www.scribd.com/do...cators-19th-January-2010
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
VituVingiSana
#27 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2010 9:48:16 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Trading is a little quieter at the moment...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
moneydust
#28 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2010 4:42:47 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 304
@ scubidu
You mention KQ, I dont know what has so positevely changed for this co...u could b havin some insider info..please share

last time I checked oil prices were going higher..last time they made the wrong hedges and paid for it.R u sure they have got it right this time?

The rally has bn too strong for my liking ie in the abscence of fresh info.

Its good to b optimistic..I also want the economy to improve since its easier to make money in a booming economy than a tough one.However since I cant force my wishes into reality I swim with prevailin wave

On the other hand...
Over time I have learnt most money in the bourse is made during periods of uncetainty since there is volatility..the trick then is to know when to get in and also out..and so on.The NSE is therefore best placed to provide the best returns to the savvy investor

Happy hunting to all.
moneydust
#29 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2010 4:48:03 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 304
@Vitumob

Points noted....
the deal
#30 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2010 7:34:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The rally will evaporate soon unless em foreigners show up with their big pockets n rescue scom even KQ is starting to diverge...price is rising while on balance volume is falling...
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