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SCOM on the run again
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Gatheuzi
#61 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 2:12:46 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
My prediction late last year was that this will get to 6.70 but if it got to 6.90 I will gladly make my exit with 100% gain in 6 months. In the meantime I want to focus on Equity getting 50% on this stock seems likely.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Gatheuzi
#62 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 2:15:56 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
My prediction late last year was that this will get to 6.70 but if it got to 6.90 I will gladly make my exit with 100% gain in 6 months. In the meantime I want to focus on Equity getting 50% on this stock seems likely.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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sokomjinga
#63 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 6:59:09 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/5/2008
Posts: 183
I sold my first KQ shares @ 95/-. Can we expect such a price anytime soon?
Taunet Neelel ..... New Beginning .....
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mukiha
#64 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 7:04:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
SCOM - 12m supply versus 2m demand....but it is still too early in the day

Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Wa_ithaka
#65 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 7:34:34 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Apart from the usual carry trade by foreigners, there is no reason (from a fundamentals-pt of view), why Safcom should be higher than Ksh6.00.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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VituVingiSana
#66 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 7:40:57 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
@pierce - Well, KQ blew past 50 today relatively easily. It seems there are not many sellers either.

As for 80... I would very happy to see 80 by 31 May 2010... It's a pity KQ does not provide quarterly financial numbers for us. It would be interesting to see how 3Q numbers stack up.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#67 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 7:46:34 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
4mn+ shares on offer at 6.10

I will not say the run has ended but if Morgan Stanley said 6.40 then why would a foreign buyer want to get in at 6/- for a return of 7% (before transactional expenses) even if it got to 6.40 if they have to wait 6-12 months?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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muganda
#68 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 8:17:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Okay so watched an interesting interview between Aly-Khan Satchu and Michael Joseph. Some interesting tit-bits:

...looking back, people ask why are you successful: some experience, some knowledge, and alot of LUCK...

...I'd say the tide turned after our last investor trips abroad... Kenyans are self-obsessed with politics but investors are more cold-blooded... they just want to invest in an emerging market company in telecommunications...

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VituVingiSana
#69 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 8:31:03 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
@muganda - That was an interesting interview. I liked that part where MJ said, he knew he won when KenCell used 'pink' as their colour... LOL...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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muganda
#70 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 8:35:46 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
@VituVingiSana, interesting indeed. What also impressed me is the way the guy always sees the whole market potential and not what his competitor has conquered (principle of abundance not scarcity).

Remember when he said:
-for data only 5-6% have access yet the educated is like 65%
-for voice only 37% penetration and it can reach 75%
-for MPESA Safaricom filled in gap because when average of 2,500/= is moved, only 30/= is made and banks can't serve at that level
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, January 19, 2010 8:36 AM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#71 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 8:40:39 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
BTW, I sold all my safcom at 6.05 (whether a good move or not is debatable) but I admit after seeing the interview, I want to jump back in.

The potential profit in M-Pesa has not even scratched the surface... especially after the CBK has allowed 'agents'. I think Voice will be competitive but a cash cow nonetheless...

And data... 1mn modems out there...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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wazua
#72 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 11:52:30 AM
Rank: Administration

Joined: 11/19/2009
Posts: 679
Dear Members,

mukiha wrote:

May be we should start a thread on selecting a CEO....


For purposes of clarity, we've created the new thread for you Succession Planning for Safaricom

Welcome to Wazua
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muganda
#73 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2010 7:06:27 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Indeed the tide has turned, underwater 10:1. @VVS good play. @Mukiha hope you're on a life raft for now smile

Bid 5.80
Bid Quantity 1,647,200
Ask 5.85
Ask Quantity 10,063,400
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VituVingiSana
#74 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2010 7:34:57 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
@muganda:

Now... that was PURE LUCK... After selling them, I was having 2nd thoughts...

I will buy back in at 5/- (if they get there) or wait till the results come out...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mukiha
#75 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2010 12:35:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
That was indeed a good ride....

@muganda, you will re-call that I sold of a portion at 6bob... So really I'm not on a life raft.

I'm still holding on to some with an average buy price of 4.30. If another rally comes about, I will be able to sell more.

I ate my cake but I still have it!
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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