When to exit? we are already in some good profit( in case some are running copy cat portfolio).

@ Muganda:

In my opinion, the Mumias sugar share still has more upside. Demand is still strong when compared to supply. The real spike will occur when the first half results for 2009/2010 are announced in the next 2-3 weeks. The current P/E of about 7.2 is still a good buy. This is a buyers market for the next few weeks.

Happy hunting

@stocksmaster - At what return/price do you plan to exit?

@muganda - There is something called riding the momentum. At 9.40 (last price I saw) he was up 36% before expenses... Makes me wonder what was the point of me buying the so-called 'longer-term' shares with decent (or better) fundamentals like low PE, high NAV, etc...

@the sage, go through the STOCKS TO WATCH IN 2010 thread, and pick a company you like (not stock). Everything is on the up and up so it's difficult to be very wrong.

@VituVingiSana, point well noted and accordingly taken.

Mumias sugar is currently trading at a p/e of about 9. This is based on the 2008/2009 results that were below par.Assuming a modest 20% rise in profits (courtesy of electricity sales and more sugar production ), the forward P/E at todays price of Ksh 9.40 becomes about 7.

The NSE market seems headed for an average forward p/e of about 14-15. This places the mumias share at a price of about Ksh 16-18 by the end of the year. My estimate is that the share still has a 25% upside in the next one month.The share is still trading at a discount.

Safaricom is the share that seems to have attaIned its peak. Currently trading at about Ksh 6.00, this places the share at a P/E of 22! After factoring an anticipated 20-25% rise in profits based on improved data and MPESA revenue, this places the share at a forward P/E of 17-18. If it feels generous to its shareholders, a doubling of dividends could be in the offing (Ksh 0.20 per share), bringing the dividend yield to 3.3% at current prices.This would be about the average dividend yield for most companies in the NSE. As such, in my opinion, Safaricom is already trading at its fair value for 2010 with little upside anticipated.

Happy hunting.

I am also holding onto my Mumias for now... but I will not hesitate to bail... well, I hope I don't hesitate...

Mumias is now 8.80 so @stocksmaster is doing well for himself...

@VVS,

Who was selling all these shares.............Paul Ndungu?

I have been avoiding to post the volumes but to make accounting sense, i can no longer avoid it.

ACTIVITY 1: Consisted of purchase of 75,000 Mumias shares at Ksh 6.90 = Ksh 517,500 (Add 2% transactions costs=Ksh 10,350)
Total Investment=Ksh 527,850

ACTIVITY 2: Consisted of sale of 30,000 Mumias shares at Ksh 9.65 = Ksh 289,500 (Deduct 2% transactions cost=Ksh 5800)

ACTIVITY 3: 26th January 2010

Purchase of 20,000 Mumias shares at Ksh 9.10= Ksh 182,000 (Add transaction costs of Ksh 3700)

Rationale of activity 3: Price on the ascendancy; half year results around the corner.

Current status of portfolio:

Initial investment(Capital outlay)= Ksh 527,850

Current status: Share value = 65,000 Mumias shares at Ksh 9.25 = Ksh 601,250

Cash at hand(Yet to be re-invested after activity 2 ) = Ksh 98,000

Total Value of speculative activity = Ksh 699,250

Growth in value = 32.4%

Happy hunting