15 minute chart of Equity Bank.

The 12345 (1) pattern shown is called an impulse wave. Impulse wave show the direction of the main trend.
I anticipate Equity to rise to either 56.50 or 58 bob then fall.

Wave 1 is at 61.00
Wave 2 is at 62.00
Wave 3 is at 53.50
Wave 4 is at 56.00
Wave 5 is at 50.00

Size of waves:
Wave 1 = (63-61) = 2.00
Wave 2 = (62-61) = 1.00
Wave 3 = (62-53.50)=8.50
Wave 4 = (56-53.50)=2.50
Wave 5 = (56-50) = 6.00

Wave (1) = (63-50) = 13.00

Golden ratio relationships:

Wave 2 retraced Fibonacci 50% of wave 1.

Wave 3 = Fibonacci 4.236 X Wave 1.

Wave (2) will end at either 56.50 ( 50% retracement of wave (1)) or at 58 (being 61.8% retracement of wave (1)).

All in all, Equity should not return to 63/- at all.

I wish we could day trade shares on NSE, with leverage, as they do in the West.

The index is what matters most. It suggests that there is a big bear coming. So what would be the point of trying to catch market tops in individual stocks? Especially coz you cannot do day-trading (with margin) in NSE.

Do short term trading..its very safe.

When a stock breaks up you buy and sell as soon as momentum starts easing

That is safe,very safe..otherwise your money stay idle (by not trading or buying laggards)

My secondary school teacher used to tell us that our God is a god of order. There is evidence of this everywhere.

God's order is the Golden Spiral. Progress in nature is achieved by 3 steps forward and two steps backward. Hence the impulse wave.

There is nothing new under the sun!

From Wikipedia:

What a walk down memory lane. @mnandii, did you study mathematics? I'm trying to remember which mad professor taught us the Fibonacci series. It must have been in Stochastic Modelling. I don't remember much of what he taught, but I went away and read up on the golden ratio, fascinated by the occurrence in nature.

NSE 20 share index has been in a triangle from April 2013 to recently. What we have now is a thrust from a triangle (which guys are wrongly thinking is a new bull market). Thrusts from triangles are ending moves. They show exhaustion of the main trend. When you see a triangle know that a reversal is at the corner.

Our triangle ended at 4863.87 points. The bull guys are happy about is the progressing impulse wave shown here.



So far we have waves 1,2, an extended wave 3 and a wave 4.

Like below:



Wave sizes:
Wave 1 = (5022.36-4863.87) = 158.49
Wave 2 = (5022.36-5003.78) = 18.58
Wave 3 = (5406.39-5003.78) = 402.61
Wave 4 = (5406.39-5216.96) = 189.43

Golden ratio relationships:

Wave 3 = Wave 1 X Fib. 2.618 = 414.93.
Accurate to within 12 points.

Wave 4 is about half wave 3.

Also notice alternation between waves 2 and 4.

Wave 2 is shallow and wave 4 goes deeply into wave 3.
Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behaviour.


Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behaviour.

The target of 5473.4 is obtained following the guideline of equality which states that if wave 3 is extended then expect wave 5 to be related to wave 1 by equality. Failing equality, a Fibonacci multiple should be applied.

Thus:
Wave 1 = 158.49
If wave 5 = Wave 1, then wave 5 should end at 5375.
Since this level has been surpassed the next target is:
Wave 1 X 1.618 = 158.49 X 1.618 = 256.44 points.
Added to wave 4 low gives a target of 5473.4 i.e [5216.96 + 256.44]