The restatement has taken off a huge chunk of the profits (paper profits regarding gains from the Pension Fund) from last year... I need to read the Annual Report for more details...

intresting,at the markets its currently @35.0 and some 3M shares are being offloaded at 70bob

That's almost 4% of the (outstanding) shares so a premium is warranted depending on the potential of Unga for such a large chunk available at one go.

- PER of (below) 10 (at 35) with growth prospects
- NAV of 42+ (possibly undervalued)
- Undervalued assets? [Land, Buildings]
- Sale of Bullpak will bring in cash [How much?]
- Uganda assets [the minority shareholders were bought out]
- Growing economies [Kenya & Uganda] and urban population
- Comparisons to peers in West Africa and South Africa
- Potential takeover target? [Tiger Brands tried to buy out a Mill & Bakery]

There are no publicly listed milling firms in Kenya (or East Africa) so it is difficult to make a comparison on values. The closest was the offer by Tiger ($25mn) for Rafiki Millers and Magic Ovens.
http://www.businessdaily...76/-/53inef/-/index.html

Ooops you wonder what else they got wrong

40.75 /-

1) Sale of 51% Bullpak -> PAT from discontinued operations = 92mn -> PER of 11x for control = 1bn cash to be reflected in 1H 2014-15. And now Unga can source packaging materials from other sources.

2) Potential purchase of Bakery (Results Commentary) on track but after additional Due Diligence over 1 year. This was on the initial agenda last year but was removed later on. Additional DD allows for better insights in the business and books. Puma bailed out of KK after additional DD showed weakness in the underlying business & hedges. Will Unga get the bakery cheaper? Or will it look at alternate bakeries? And with a higher share price, the number of shares issued may be reduced significantly vs 2013.

3) 76mn shares with (at least) 51% owned by the Ndegwas (via Victus with 51%) and if they need (insert laugh track here) the cash, they can flip the firm. In 2014 Tiger Brands wanted to buy Rafiki Millers & Magic Ovens for KES 2.1bn http://www.businessdaily...8/-/6oibu7/-/index.html

4) If Rafiki Millers & Magic Ovens - what brands do they sell? - were going at 2.1bn (& there seems there was a price disagreement and I would assume the Sellers wanted more) then why can't Unga be worth 2x? Let's assume 4.2bn for Unga (larger firm, more products, better known brands) = 60/share

5) Land Holdings. "Industrial Area" in Eldoret and Nairobi are becoming prime real estate for the CBD and factories may be better of relocating while keeping distribution centers in/near towns. In Eldoret, the mill is cycling distance from the old CBD and now walking distance with the expanded CBD. In Nairobi, the factory/mill is across the railway line but read this http://www.businessdaily.../-/vf1h3wz/-/index.html and a huge multi-story building can come up (on the existing land) to service the various needs of an expanding city including warehouses, commercial, offices, light industrial and residential. Add proximity to the PSV park and 4-lane highway to Mombasa Road.

6) Brands - There is tremendous value in the brands. We still pay extra for Unga products for home consumption. The extra KES 2-5 per kg for Unga flour is a testament to the branding. Why pay extra? Coz it is for the family's consumption and quality matters.

7) Lower debt, restructuring of Sales Channels, 100% of Uganda business, new Wheat Mill, etc (2012-13 Annual Report and Results Commentary for 2013-14) should increase the EPS in 2014-15 and in later years.

So... is it worth the 65/- that Genghis says?