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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
maka
#921 Posted : Wednesday, September 24, 2014 10:57:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
ops update: New B787 5YKZE revised touch down time 0715utc (1015LT).
possunt quia posse videntur
obiero
#922 Posted : Thursday, September 25, 2014 11:09:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,706
Location: nairobi
The Pride of Africa..Kenya Airways story

COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
Gordon Gekko
#923 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 3:42:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Did my first KQ dreamliner trip, Capt Kariuki and first officer Sharon. Was a little disappointed, I had expected more room but we were packed like sardines in economy (9 abreast) sharing 8 shitholes. The windows were great, large and none of that shutter stuff, just press a button and the glaze changes. There was a light show at some point, with the cabin light changing from red all the way to violet. The entertainment still needs some work in terms of more variety. The biggest problem, and this is a KAA problem is that we had to wait for nearly 20 minutes in the plane after parking at JKIA for the airside bus to take us to arrivals, imagine if two dreamliners landed at the same time and KQ has only two of those buses working because one has been taken out for an oil change.....BTW I suspect the first officer was a KLM employee, is there a pilot shortage or has the transition from 767 to 787 not been managed well saddling us with extra staff costs?
VituVingiSana
#924 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 9:49:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,187
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The (shareholder capital) destructive policies in place will continue to decimate KQ's bottom-line for another year. The expansionist policies which were used to build a fiefdom will plague those who bought into KQ during the Rights Issue. The CFO is still in place and KQ needs all the directors and management who approved and pushed the expansionist agenda to 'step aside' to allow a new team to re-assess Project Mawingu.

Are you saying KLM stood by and watched Titus and Alex run down the company?
Yes.
(1) The non-exec KLM guys are employees not owners e.g. Munga of Equity, Shah of KCB, Ndegwa of NIC/Unga.
(2) The CEO & CFO are nominated by KLM so they are their people.
(3) The entire board [well, those who voted/approved] unbridled expansion should resign. I said all directors and management who approved and pushed the expansionist agenda should 'step aside'...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#925 Posted : Saturday, September 27, 2014 5:31:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,706
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Gordon Gekko wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The (shareholder capital) destructive policies in place will continue to decimate KQ's bottom-line for another year. The expansionist policies which were used to build a fiefdom will plague those who bought into KQ during the Rights Issue. The CFO is still in place and KQ needs all the directors and management who approved and pushed the expansionist agenda to 'step aside' to allow a new team to re-assess Project Mawingu.

Are you saying KLM stood by and watched Titus and Alex run down the company?
Yes.
(1) The non-exec KLM guys are employees not owners e.g. Munga of Equity, Shah of KCB, Ndegwa of NIC/Unga.
(2) The CEO & CFO are nominated by KLM so they are their people.
(3) The entire board [well, those who voted/approved] unbridled expansion should resign. I said all directors and management who approved and pushed the expansionist agenda should 'step aside'...

The project mawingu was necessary and unbridled is a word that has been used too loosely in this context.. Let him/her who has eyes, read.. KQ shall make me rich

COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
Kausha
#926 Posted : Saturday, September 27, 2014 10:25:05 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
What makes project mawingu neccesary. And dont give us economic statistics or forecasts to justify

obiero
#927 Posted : Sunday, September 28, 2014 8:25:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,706
Location: nairobi
Kausha wrote:
What makes project mawingu neccesary. And dont give us economic statistics or forecasts to justify


do u know the fleet number and cabin load factor of ethiopian airlines??
Let me make your work easier.. Here are some cold facts.. Hope this now makes sense to you about why KQ must expand.. Other African airlines though admittedly supported by govt, are ramping up capacity that affect even the core market of Kenya! Imagine having to fly Ethiopian from Kisumu to Mombasa! I'd rather walk all the way..

COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
Gordon Gekko
#928 Posted : Sunday, September 28, 2014 3:35:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
obiero wrote:
Kausha wrote:
What makes project mawingu neccesary. And dont give us economic statistics or forecasts to justify


do u know the fleet number and cabin load factor of ethiopian airlines??
Let me make your work easier.. Here are some cold facts.. Hope this now makes sense to you about why KQ must expand.. Other African airlines though admittedly supported by govt, are ramping up capacity that affect even the core market of Kenya! Imagine having to fly Ethiopian from Kisumu to Mombasa! I'd rather walk all the way..

As we continue debating the viability of Mawingu, Ethiopian have just placed the largest single order by an African airline - 20 B737MAX with an option for 15 more.......
VituVingiSana
#929 Posted : Sunday, September 28, 2014 11:03:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,187
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kausha wrote:
What makes project mawingu neccesary. And dont give us economic statistics or forecasts to justify


do u know the fleet number and cabin load factor of ethiopian airlines??
Let me make your work easier.. Here are some cold facts.. Hope this now makes sense to you about why KQ must expand.. Other African airlines though admittedly supported by govt, are ramping up capacity that affect even the core market of Kenya! Imagine having to fly Ethiopian from Kisumu to Mombasa! I'd rather walk all the way..

As we continue debating the viability of Mawingu, Ethiopian have just placed the largest single order by an African airline - 20 B737MAX with an option for 15 more.......

Placing large orders is easy. Buying planes on credit (with sovereign support) is easy too. Running a profitable airline is not. I prefer a slow but (profitable) growing airline.
KQ was (sadly) ahead of its time coz GoK refused to (start) expand the airport 10 years ago when the orders for the new 787s and 777s were placed.

All that said, I will look at KQ in 2015 after the loss for 2014-15 is announced.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#930 Posted : Monday, September 29, 2014 8:09:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Dreamliner acquisition is a fleet renewal project, like we did when we replaced Airbus 320 with B767. The B767 have aged and are not competitive anymore, more so on routes where they fight with the Emirates of this world. Embraer acquisition is an expansion project. Fleet renewal was imperative for survival, expansion can be debated, like is the dream to serve each African capital an economically justifiable one or an ego trip?
I fully support the dreamliners, as far as the Embraers are concerned, they are running at a cabin factor of 70% (obiero's states, which I believe) so maybe it is sound in economics.
VituVingiSana
#931 Posted : Monday, September 29, 2014 9:50:37 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,187
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Dreamliner acquisition is a fleet renewal project, like we did when we replaced Airbus 320 with B767. The B767 have aged and are not competitive anymore, more so on routes where they fight with the Emirates of this world. Embraer acquisition is an expansion project. Fleet renewal was imperative for survival, expansion can be debated, like is the dream to serve each African capital an economically justifiable one or an ego trip?
I fully support the dreamliners, as far as the Embraers are concerned, they are running at a cabin factor of 70% (obiero's states, which I believe) so maybe it is sound in economics.


The issue isn't and was not the Fleet Renewal Program but the scale of the expansion. As you rightly ask was it economically justified or an ego trip? After (the scale and breadth) Project Mawingu was announced, the cabin crew [& more important, the pilots] went on the (compensation) warpath. The cost of giving in to the salary (& perks) increases cost KQ momentum and starved it of capital. KQ was forced to cut back on foreign pilots even with a shortfall of local pilots. Ironically, the 3-year 787 delay worked in KQ's favor as more local pilots could enter the system but will these be enough as more planes come in?

Anyway, the bottom-line as an Investor is not whether KQ's strategy was right or wrong but the ROI. For those who bought into Project Mawingu at 14/- ... when will they break even? Then when will they, if ever, recover the Opportunity Cost. Assume an annual 15% return [adjusted for inflation, Beta, Infrastructure T-Bond] which means KQ's shares should be trading at 20-ish by 2015.

The biggest damning action, in my view, was when the Management & Board didn't commit to participate in the Rights Issue. No skin in the game. So neither the Board (as individuals), the Management, the Pilots and the Employees have a significant stake in KQ... Think about it.

Good Luck in 2014. And I might become a Flyer in 2015 if I see green shoots but I will continue to watch the ownership stakes of the key individuals e.g. CEO, CFO, Chairman, etc.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
maka
#932 Posted : Monday, September 29, 2014 10:37:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Gordon Gekko wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kausha wrote:
What makes project mawingu neccesary. And dont give us economic statistics or forecasts to justify


do u know the fleet number and cabin load factor of ethiopian airlines??
Let me make your work easier.. Here are some cold facts.. Hope this now makes sense to you about why KQ must expand.. Other African airlines though admittedly supported by govt, are ramping up capacity that affect even the core market of Kenya! Imagine having to fly Ethiopian from Kisumu to Mombasa! I'd rather walk all the way..

As we continue debating the viability of Mawingu, Ethiopian have just placed the largest single order by an African airline - 20 B737MAX with an option for 15 more.......

Placing large orders is easy. Buying planes on credit (with sovereign support) is easy too. Running a profitable airline is not. I prefer a slow but (profitable) growing airline.
KQ was (sadly) ahead of its time coz GoK refused to (start) expand the airport 10 years ago when the orders for the new 787s and 777s were placed.

All that said, I will look at KQ in 2015 after the loss for 2014-15 is announced.


On point...
possunt quia posse videntur
maka
#933 Posted : Monday, September 29, 2014 10:43:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Did my first KQ dreamliner trip, Capt Kariuki and first officer Sharon. Was a little disappointed, I had expected more room but we were packed like sardines in economy (9 abreast) sharing 8 shitholes. The windows were great, large and none of that shutter stuff, just press a button and the glaze changes. There was a light show at some point, with the cabin light changing from red all the way to violet. The entertainment still needs some work in terms of more variety. The biggest problem, and this is a KAA problem is that we had to wait for nearly 20 minutes in the plane after parking at JKIA for the airside bus to take us to arrivals, imagine if two dreamliners landed at the same time and KQ has only two of those buses working because one has been taken out for an oil change.....BTW I suspect the first officer was a KLM employee, is there a pilot shortage or has the transition from 767 to 787 not been managed well saddling us with extra staff costs?


There are only 9 buses...they are adding 3 more probably by end year,as you rightly said it's supposed to be KAA,s job but as usual govt agencies don't care=complacency...
possunt quia posse videntur
maka
#934 Posted : Monday, September 29, 2014 10:54:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Dreamliner acquisition is a fleet renewal project, like we did when we replaced Airbus 320 with B767. The B767 have aged and are not competitive anymore, more so on routes where they fight with the Emirates of this world. Embraer acquisition is an expansion project. Fleet renewal was imperative for survival, expansion can be debated, like is the dream to serve each African capital an economically justifiable one or an ego trip?
I fully support the dreamliners, as far as the Embraers are concerned, they are running at a cabin factor of 70% (obiero's states, which I believe) so maybe it is sound in economics.

On 21st of this month stats for the week show that the BB was 76% = 14307 passengers,and that's for the entire fleet...KQ did in actual 66% (11,000 and something)that's 10% less...let's not look at the embraer,s which are definitely doing well in isolation...let's look at uplift figures for the whole fleet.
possunt quia posse videntur
VituVingiSana
#935 Posted : Monday, September 29, 2014 10:58:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,187
Location: Nairobi
maka wrote:
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Did my first KQ dreamliner trip, Capt Kariuki and first officer Sharon. Was a little disappointed, I had expected more room but we were packed like sardines in economy (9 abreast) sharing 8 shitholes. The windows were great, large and none of that shutter stuff, just press a button and the glaze changes. There was a light show at some point, with the cabin light changing from red all the way to violet. The entertainment still needs some work in terms of more variety. The biggest problem, and this is a KAA problem is that we had to wait for nearly 20 minutes in the plane after parking at JKIA for the airside bus to take us to arrivals, imagine if two dreamliners landed at the same time and KQ has only two of those buses working because one has been taken out for an oil change.....BTW I suspect the first officer was a KLM employee, is there a pilot shortage or has the transition from 767 to 787 not been managed well saddling us with extra staff costs?


There are only 9 buses...they are adding 3 more probably by end year,as you rightly said it's supposed to be KAA,s job but as usual govt agencies don't care=complacency...
When KAA didn't provide Apron Buses... KQ went out and bought their own. In many other airports, the Airport provides the Apron Buses or Shuttles but not at JKIA by KAA. I hope KQ gets a discount for spending its own cash to provide the buses!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#936 Posted : Monday, October 06, 2014 5:05:06 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Does KQ still hold the oil hedge contracts? If so, with brent sliding towards sub $90 won't KQ take a hit in H1 results? If this oil slide keeps up till Q1 2015 when KQ fiscal yr ends, that will crimp the full yr results plus the tourism slump.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#937 Posted : Tuesday, October 07, 2014 6:15:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
Does KQ still hold the oil hedge contracts? If so, with brent sliding towards sub $90 won't KQ take a hit in H1 results? If this oil slide keeps up till Q1 2015 when KQ fiscal yr ends, that will crimp the full yr results plus the tourism slump.


What about the strong $$ vs KES?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
obiero
#938 Posted : Tuesday, October 07, 2014 10:58:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,706
Location: nairobi
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
Does KQ still hold the oil hedge contracts? If so, with brent sliding towards sub $90 won't KQ take a hit in H1 results? If this oil slide keeps up till Q1 2015 when KQ fiscal yr ends, that will crimp the full yr results plus the tourism slump.


What about the strong $$ vs KES?

the share is taking an unecessary beating.. anyone who has not yet bought into the dream should not wait any longer. its time to buy

COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
Akenyan2014
#939 Posted : Tuesday, October 07, 2014 11:28:20 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
obiero wrote:
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
Does KQ still hold the oil hedge contracts? If so, with brent sliding towards sub $90 won't KQ take a hit in H1 results? If this oil slide keeps up till Q1 2015 when KQ fiscal yr ends, that will crimp the full yr results plus the tourism slump.


What about the strong $$ vs KES?

the share is taking an unecessary beating.. anyone who has not yet bought into the dream should not wait any longer. its time to buy


I have temporarily disembarked 90%, I suspected that the bottom might not have been tested properly. Keenly watching...
Menengai
#940 Posted : Tuesday, October 07, 2014 12:08:33 PM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 7/16/2014
Posts: 9
@vvs@obiero i have 1400shares of KQ that i bought last year in feb @11 should i average down now or wait for the HYResults firstd'oh!
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