@CNN

........and do you know where i can get a breakdown of those results??
Wat was their working capital & asset capital base as compared to last year??

@member,my observation on mumias is based on the situation on the ground.MSC has taken enough precaution to ensure that cane harvested(which is in plenty this rainy season)reaches their mills and issues with transporters are sorted to avoid leakage to other smaller pivate millers.With Tarda I believe its a major plus as there will be no rival millers nearby where cane 'stollen' will be directed to, as is the case in western kenya.So the mills will be operating at full capacity and no extra costs will be incured for cane intransit security (I want to believe the cane for Tarda will also be milled at Tarda).

If you bought at 3.20 why wouldn't you whistle from dawn to dusk?....and the ride just started.

@Chaliwong,
For heaven's sake MSC doesn't have enough cane...!!

I believe KQ will be a jewel in 2010. Primarily because of the already mentioned world cup but considerably also because of strategies taken last year.
firstly the carrier set out to patch holes that were bleeding its revenue and this has worked tremendously well so far. case in point is the greatly improved on-time performance that must have saved the carrier quite some much in hotel fees and the mandatory IATA allowances to pax for missed flights.Insiders will also tell you there have been a raft of measures to seal loopholes within departments to further reduce the carriers expenses.
secondly, the carrier acquired extra737-800 towards end of 2008 and early 2009 and the impact of this extra capacity is bound to have been felt last year and further more this year. they also retired one old b767 and acquired a newerer one that reduces the ground time wasted by the older one in maintenance.
tihrdly, many of the new route opened last year have picked up very well. Gaborone is already being serviced by the larger b737-800 and the plane is full on most of the flights. Naikuni's personal focus on reclaiming the Lagos cash cow seems to be bearing fruit big time alredy. there are now two flights a day to Lagos one by a 767 and the other a 737 and both are doing pretty well. Other smaller destinations like Malabo,Libreville and Bangui that were started to shore up revenue per seat on the excess capacity camerounian route are doing just that. Obviously it will take time to break even on the new route but they are already looking promising. there is talk of even more new destinations this year with Burkina Faso,jeddah,juba and Luanda in the pipeline.
lastly and I stand to be corrected on this, the unrealised losses reported last financial year due to the hedge on oil was pegged on oil at Usd 59 a barrel. ever since the price has risen and has been teasing the $80 mark recently. this I believe has been a boon for the carrier. Im not well versed on the accounting rules on this thats why I stand to be corrected.
I took a position on this stock at 24.75 last year and I'm smiling already and I believe the smile is hear to stay for most of 2010

The hedges were @$110,as long as oil prices are below this kq will be actualising losses.The big question is when do the expensive hedges roll off?

@vituVingiSana - I hope as Mumias takes over Nzoia it does not bring on board the Nzoia management and the politics that have been frustrating their own farmers at times holding mature cane in the farms for more than three years yet they have no capacity to mill it and wont let others buy it.If its for the cane its all good.

IMHO, MSC should and must concentrate its financial power on TARDA. The sugarcane variety grown in Western province takes 18months to mature compared to 9 months for the variety to grown at TARDA.
PS:I understand there is also a project to start growing sugar at the Coast. Lakini they may have to encourage watu wa bara to move down their given their love of leisure...

With the Mumias Half year results in, a re-analysis of the share is in order.

The earnings per share for the half year results are Ksh 0.68.

The company has indicated that it is yet to fully reap the benefits of power export and expect improved revenue from the power segment in second half of the year.Assuming a conservative 10% increase in the EPS compared to 1st half for the second half of the year, the second half EPS should be about 0.75. This would lead to an annualized EPS of about Ksh 1.43.

At the current share price of about Ksh 9, the share is thus trading at a forward P/E of about 6.

The fair value of this share should be a forward P/E of at least 12, thus the share is currently priced at half of its true value.

The realistic price for Mumias should be about Ksh 18. However, i anticipate a huge supply at prices that approximate the rights issue price of Ksh 16.50. By the end of the year, this share should stabilise at the price of Ksh 16-18.

Thus any price below Ksh 15 is a good buy.

Happy hunting.

@stocksmaster - why do you pick a PE of 12?

Coz at (forward) 12x PE... there are many other stocks much cheaper... and with decent growth as prospects as well...