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How to tell NSE has topped/Maxed out.
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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These P/Ex, P/Bx and NAV things are not relevant any more. That is a fact all wazuans must accept. So, do we sit on the sideline and watch as rookies make money? Absolutely NO! We still can squeeze some money out of this madness (but i'd rather call it "New Trend"). Pesa ni Pesa, au sio? Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Admin should pin this thread. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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dunkang wrote:These P/Ex, P/Bx and NAV things are not relevant any more. That is a fact all wazuans must accept. So, do we sit on the sideline and watch as rookies make money? Absolutely NO!
We still can squeeze some money out of this madness (but i'd rather call it "New Trend"). Pesa ni Pesa, au sio?
Sawa bwana dunkang,twende kazi. pesa ni pesa. Just don't get slaughtered 
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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The secret of riding on a bull is to be ready for when it slows down. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Mainat wrote:The secret of riding on a bull is to be ready for when it slows down. Very true.  Lets make money. Lets stop being too pessimistic and MAKE MONEY. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:I started the bottomed out thread on July 13, 2011 when the market was skidding with no brakes and felt endless. You are on the right track about topping out if you read the bottomed out 1st post. I have been bearish this market since Nov 2013 while the market has continued to meltup. I closely follow Mpesa bank and it has proved to be a reliable signal since its IPO debut. The likes of @mukiri has been throwing stones at me for being the party spoiler with my never appearing sizable market selloff. False prophesy etc NSE20 has the buying climax symptoms across many counters. When crappy stocks (very small caps) rally on endless price gaps on small volume, the market has run out of quality picks! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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murchr wrote:Am never the pessimist, but yesterday I logged into FB and the "Hallo questions" we see here were there in some group. Someone asked how they can join the NSE band wagon and they were advised to buy 200 shares of HAFR for just 900/- (cheap ha!) and sell later for a PROFIT. Another told them to take some small loan if they dont have enough saved..THIS IS THE TIME. Then it clicked on me that the pigs are now ripe for slaughter. Watching shares like KORCH with the manipulation, EXPR floating with a PE of 700, i believe there are lessons to be learnt. But Still, there are bargians Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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The trend says we are still bullish..for the short to medium term traders.. Buyers showing resiliency in Equity and KCB so far.Sellers getting exhausted early(equity seemed floored at 53 but patience is always a virtue until a definite trend change) The pessimists predicted doom after safcom ex div but bulls looking forward to November results.. So the correction was meant to be shallow! Looking for the bargains.. True the bear will come but until the trend changes we riding it
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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I don't think the NSE has maxed out until we see the index above 7,000 which might happen, a lot of cash is moving from real estate to the nse. The key thing is to manage the down turn i.e. stop loss orders if the prices fall more than 15% sell. In my view the music will stop abruptly in the next two years via macro-economic instability(current account deficit) and external shocks(china). Till then it's a casino the secret to surviving is knowing what to throw away and knowing what to keep
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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wake me up when the slaughter begins Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/7/2014 Posts: 155
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what matters is what counter are you on/holding.dont be caught swimming naked when your counter gets a correction.
Just as peculiar as kenyans are...so is our Stock Market.
Probably the market is no where near topping or the madness is yet to come for real....so once each phase passes, we will be able to analyse it better.
Nobody knows of tomorrow with 100% assuarity...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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fundamentalists starting to sing speculator/ trader tunes. the madness is spreading through the air until soon it will seem normal. caution friends, caution. you have a better chance at Russian roulette. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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Aguytrying wrote:fundamentalists starting to sing speculator/ trader tunes. the madness is spreading through the air until soon it will seem normal. caution friends, caution. you have a better chance at Russian roulette. I may not like the beers but I love a good party and I always leave the party before midnight. our policy makers want the market to party so lets party. Fundamentalists will tell you fair value anything above is madness which you can't control but you can take advantage What do you do with these kind of headlines Quote:Kenya at the heart of an African energy boom
When it comes to new oil and gas frontiers, today it’s all about Africa, Stafford writes. More specifically, it’s all about the eastern coast, with Kenya the clear darling of an emerging oil industry. http://www.csmonitor.com...-an-African-energy-boom
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Buy low sell high...buying high to sell high rarely works.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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@hisah, mnandii, metaspoilt and all other chartists. Could any of you generated the 12 or 18 month chart for BRITAM, CENTUM and Equity pls. The trend should be interesting. Thanks "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Britam - 2yr chart shows strong rejection from the 40/- zone level. Chartists will tell that the coming correction will not be gentle...  Equity - 2yr chart says thin sim or no thin sim, upside is very limited!  Centum - 2yr chart. This is my favourite coz it's such a nice selloff bazooka cocktail which will leave serious hangover side-effects for late the party-goers. Best bull trap setup at the NSE so far!  I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs.  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/28/2014 Posts: 149 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs. ROTFL  When you live for others' opinions, you are dead.
- Carlos Slim Helu
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:Britam - 2yr chart shows strong rejection from the 40/- zone level. Chartists will tell that the coming correction will not be gentle... Equity - 2yr chart says thin sim or no thin sim, upside is very limited! Centum - 2yr chart. This is my favourite coz it's such a nice selloff bazooka cocktail which will leave serious hangover side-effects for late the party-goers. Best bull trap setup at the NSE so far! I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs. Interesting .... waiting for the lessons. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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How to tell NSE has topped/Maxed out.
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