Wazua
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Kenya Economy Watch
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,551 Location: nairobi
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mnandii wrote:hisah wrote: CBK Q2 2014 banking report shows profits are still on the rise for banks. However, the NPLs have refused to deflate. Out of the 11 econ sectors, 8 continue to post rising NPLs. Quite sad to see that those among the struggling sectors are trade, manufacturing, tourism, transport and household while inflation is on the rise. Only agri and mining didn't post increased NPLs. How will banks continue posting double digit profits in this environment? And so I continue avoiding the banking counters... http://tinyurl.com/lgdv96a Quite a concern for Kenya. the adequacy of bank's capital is wanting and this shows in the ratios as discussed on page two of the central bank report. the constant clamor for fall in interest rate by the public will slow down borrowing since most large firms are anticipating a fall in interest prior to placement of any new borrowing requests HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/14/2011 Posts: 661
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Kenya will impose capital-gains and windfall taxes on oil, gas and mining companies within months to ensure the East African nation maximizes benefits from its mineral resources, President Uhuru Kenyatta said. “This is something that we are very clear about,” Kenyatta said “We want to ensure that we as a country also are able to benefit from both the windfall and capital-gains tax.” Kenya, East Africa’s biggest economy, will probably grow at 5 percent this year, the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects document on June 11. The lender reduced the prediction to 4.7 percent for 2014 as delayed seasonal rains have curbed agricultural production and worsening insecurity has scared off tourists, it said on June 26. Fitch Ratings affirmed the country’s credit assessment at B+, the fourth-highest non-investment grade, with a stable outlook on July 25. http://www.bloomberg.com...-months.html?cmpid=yhoo
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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So much talk on Power Africa from the world bank and from uncle Barry. I am eagerly waiting to see how these funds will flow and WHERE they will flow to. http://www.capitalfm.co....g-up-sub-saharan-africa
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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Morning wazuans,
Seems like the talk on cost of credit coming down was just that.
Yesterday's 91-day t-bill auction was undersubscribed and the interest rate was still at 8.2%.
Are they ever likely to get to the amazing 2% of Kibaki years ?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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FRM2011 wrote:Morning wazuans,
Seems like the talk on cost of credit coming down was just that.
Yesterday's 91-day t-bill auction was undersubscribed and the interest rate was still at 8.2%.
Are they ever likely to get to the amazing 2% of Kibaki years ? Kibaki was a Keynesian and lived it throughout his regime. The effects were Great in his early years 2003-2007 but we all know what happened in Q4 2011. Now that we went begging to IMF, forget the 2% for now,until we chase them away! IMF = More taxes,more austerity,more pain for the mwananchi,Less Growth! As for this weeks auction being undersubscribed, this points to coming high yields particularly if the Govt's appetite for domestic borrowing remains the same/increases. The converse is true! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:FRM2011 wrote:Morning wazuans,
Seems like the talk on cost of credit coming down was just that.
Yesterday's 91-day t-bill auction was undersubscribed and the interest rate was still at 8.2%.
Are they ever likely to get to the amazing 2% of Kibaki years ? Kibaki was a Keynesian and lived it throughout his regime. The effects were Great in his early years 2003-2007 but we all know what happened in Q4 2011. Now that we went begging to IMF, forget the 2% for now,until we chase them away! IMF = More taxes,more austerity,more pain for the mwananchi,Less Growth! As for this weeks auction being undersubscribed, this points to coming high yields particularly if the Govt's appetite for domestic borrowing remains the same/increases. The converse is true! @...philanga are you Austrian? Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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mnandii wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:FRM2011 wrote:Morning wazuans,
Seems like the talk on cost of credit coming down was just that.
Yesterday's 91-day t-bill auction was undersubscribed and the interest rate was still at 8.2%.
Are they ever likely to get to the amazing 2% of Kibaki years ? Kibaki was a Keynesian and lived it throughout his regime. The effects were Great in his early years 2003-2007 but we all know what happened in Q4 2011. Now that we went begging to IMF, forget the 2% for now,until we chase them away! IMF = More taxes,more austerity,more pain for the mwananchi,Less Growth! As for this weeks auction being undersubscribed, this points to coming high yields particularly if the Govt's appetite for domestic borrowing remains the same/increases. The converse is true! @...philanga are you Austrian? What happened there? Sorry i digress.... @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mnandii wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:FRM2011 wrote:Morning wazuans,
Seems like the talk on cost of credit coming down was just that.
Yesterday's 91-day t-bill auction was undersubscribed and the interest rate was still at 8.2%.
Are they ever likely to get to the amazing 2% of Kibaki years ? Kibaki was a Keynesian and lived it throughout his regime. The effects were Great in his early years 2003-2007 but we all know what happened in Q4 2011. Now that we went begging to IMF, forget the 2% for now,until we chase them away! IMF = More taxes,more austerity,more pain for the mwananchi,Less Growth! As for this weeks auction being undersubscribed, this points to coming high yields particularly if the Govt's appetite for domestic borrowing remains the same/increases. The converse is true! @...philanga are you Austrian? What happened there? Sorry i digress.... Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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People should study the correlation between tax evasion and the economy. At the onset of GFC tax evasion became a thorny issue in Europe before it went global. Towards the end of last year tax evasion cases and tax hungry policies are now rife globally. So what's happening to KE? Are tax issues appearing in the headlines? Have taxes been hiked? What about tax evasion headlines? **Markets hate confessions** $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Inflation continues its upward march and prints 8.36% up from 7.67%. http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFL5N0R21TS20140901
Inflation up, KES weak, econ weak, but NSE up. Wake up call coming soon to mr market when CBK starts hiking... I continue to warn on bank stocks, haircuts are coming. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:Inflation continues its upward march and prints 8.36% up from 7.67%. http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFL5N0R21TS20140901
Inflation up, KES weak, econ weak, but NSE up. Wake up call coming soon to mr market when CBK starts hiking... I continue to warn on bank stocks, haircuts are coming. They(MPC) are due to meet on Wednesday to set rates and decide how to tame this animal called inflation. Last week they came to the market to pump in some KES.....how long i ask @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:Inflation continues its upward march and prints 8.36% up from 7.67%. http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFL5N0R21TS20140901
Inflation up, KES weak, econ weak, but NSE up. Wake up call coming soon to mr market when CBK starts hiking... I continue to warn on bank stocks, haircuts are coming. They(MPC) are due to meet on Wednesday to set rates and decide how to tame this animal called inflation. Last week they came to the market to pump in some KES.....how long i ask I expect them to behave the same way like they did back in Q3 2010. Do nothing while throwing around terms like inflation is still within range?! No need to hike since they hope things will work out! Then Q1 2015, nobody saw it coming as inflation uptrend continues on a tear while NSE20 heads on a downward tear...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Why is CBK not conducting such a critical banking sector test? Stress testing is a vital regulatory role in order to anticipate banking systemic risks and its knock on shock to the econ. Will they wait for a Nigeria like banking crisis to serve as a wake up call http://www.businessdaily.../-/15i2jdwz/-/index.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Reality check sets in. GoK revises econ growth forecast down from 5.8% to 5% - http://mobile.nation.co..../-/14wo31a/-/index.html
5% is still ambitious! My expectation still remains below 5% i.e. flat like last yr (4.7%) or lower. It's that lower possibility that will rock Mr market. Econ slump with ticking inflation means someone is printing monies since revenues (taxes) are below par... This will hurt. Grab your cash for a rainy day. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/30/2014 Posts: 86 Location: nairobi
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England is feeling the effect of Scotland wanting to gain independence. Being a British colony how will this affect us?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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the Star wrote:The government is finalising plans to issue a diaspora bond before June next year to finance infrastructure development, Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich said Friday.
Tapping debt from Kenyans living abroad tops the National Treasury's options to reduce borrowing pressure from the domestic market.
Rotich said this is also part of a wider strategy to ease commercial banks' interest rates, presently averaging 16.91 per cent, to single-digit levels.
The diaspora community sent home Sh71.67 billion ($807.2 million) in the first seven months of the year, a 9.6 per cent increase compared to the Sh65.39 billion ($736.5 million) in a similar period last year.
The National Treasury is also working on an Islamic bond, popularly known as Sukuk, to draw foreign investments from oil-rich Gulf and Middle East regions whose participation in the hugely successful debut $2 billion (Sh177.60 billion) debut Eurobond last June was religiously prohibitive.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Kenya Shilling Swings Near December 2011 LowQuote:Sales every day this week of term-auction deposits and repurchase agreements, used by the Central Bank of Kenya to pull shilling liquidity from the market, haven’t been enough to halt the slide in currency, which is down 3.5 percent this year against the dollar. Déjà vu NSE rally is just about to hit a brick wall. I continue to warn with irrational bulls still deluded. Wake up call is coming and the market is sharply elevated... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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Hallo Wazuans.
Can someone be kind enough to explain the fine prints in the EPA (Economic partnership agreements). There has to be a strong reason why we are reluctant to sign them.
Now our key exports to the EU can no longer enjoy duty and quota free status. Seems like horticulture will be hardest hit.
Throw in low tourism figures, crisis in tea sub-sector, maize shortage, wheat crop failure in narok and one can only wish this year is over.
Poor KES, this too shall come to pass.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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NOTICE: Gova coming to the streetz hustling soon. #Wanjiku movement for better priced funding. #Mobile Bank Bulls be prepared. Basically, it's being put between a rock & a hard place. Either banks raise savings rates for all saving accounts (squeezing margins - CoF) or CBK takes it all*. #Popcorn Central Bank of Kenya Amendment Bill targets retailers’ savings to fund State coffers Read more at: http://www.standardmedia...s-to-fund-state-coffers
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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^^^^^^ McReggae wrote: Why Central Bank Law Should Be Changed
Last year Kenyans transacted Kshs. 2 trillion via M-Pesa alone. That’s more than this year’s record breaking national budget. In addition to using mobile money, we also put our money in banks. Last year we had 1.3 trillion in total deposits in the banking system. The banks, never quite a generous lot, paid us on average, 1.58% interest for that money.
In spite of these impressive numbers, we remain skeptical, or are doubted, of our ability to lend our government. In June when I drafted this bill, the government wanted to borrow 8 billion in 180 days and one year bills, and as is customary, it asked the banks and the super-rich for it. But these guys were in a bad mood and weekly government debt auction only yielded 2.5 billion, at rates of 10%, which the government accepted. In other words, that week of 5th June, government borrowed 2.5 billion from banks and the super-rich and agreed to pay them 10% interest on that borrowing.
At that time, the Government was out in America and Europe to borrow 132 Billion, a small fraction (6.6%) of the value of our last year’s M-Pesa transactions, and only 10% of what we Kenyans kept in bank accounts 2013. Interest rates on this Eurobond are in the region of 6%.
What’s wrong with this picture? We, the sovereigns, give our money to banks in return for 1.58%. They in turn lend it to government for a handsome 10%. Foreigners lend our government (ourselves) @ 6% interest, or mostly above.
Why would the government not be interested in our 1.3 trillion? And if/when it is, it insists on going through an intermediary?
In a country where you pay your utility bills as well as your herdsman by mobile phone, why is the government debt program still run with cave man technology? There are huge barriers that ensure ordinary Kenyan cannot lend our own government. If you want to lend government of Kenya, you can only do so with a minimum of 100,000. In addition, you have to open a CDS account (whatever that is) at Central Bank. “Bids must be in specified format and reach the central bank before 2pm” on the appointed day, the stern advertisement from the director financial markets usual warns. Bids may be paid for in cash, bankers’ cheque or RTGS. This in world’s greatest mobile money economy!
We must open up our economy and all the opportunities therein to sovereigns. Let's widen and grow the middle class. More citizens should access and compete with hitherto untouchables. Financial markets shouldn't be shrouded.
We are digital, or aren't we? Or aren't we thrilled by the ongoing battle for the Sims? If Safaricom wins and Equity Bank triumphs, aren’t we beneficiaries?
So let CBK Act be amended as follows:
ENACTED by the Parliament of Kenya, as follows—
1. This Act may be cited as the Central Bank (Amendment) Act, 2014
2. The Central Bank Act is amended in section 45 by –
(a) re-numbering the existing provision as sub-section (1); and
(b) inserting the following new sub-section immediately after subsection (1) –
“2. Subject to sub-section 1(c), the Bank shall put in place mechanisms to enable the public to participate in Government securities through –
(a) electronic means; and
(b) lower minimum investment denominations”
The CBK Amendment Bill (Kenya Gazette Supplement No. 110, 21st July 2014) went through 1st reading on 12th August 2014. The National Assembly in a public notice carried on page15, Saturday Nation, 20th September 2014 has called for public participation via memos to reach the KNA Clerk not later than Friday September 2014.
Kind regards,
Hon Kabando wa Kabando, MP
(Mukurweini)
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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