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Estimated 71 Billion Barrels...
Cde Monomotapa
#1081 Posted : Friday, August 29, 2014 1:54:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Meanwhile in UG: New Vision

Update: Uganda's Oil deposits have grown by 87% from the 14 oil wells that oil companies have been exploring. We now have 6.5billion barrels of oil.
innairobi
#1082 Posted : Friday, August 29, 2014 1:54:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2010
Posts: 845
In my view, the Kenya government should earn at least $10B in revenue per annum from oil for it to make any meaningful rapid impact. That would probably mean discovering at least 10 billion barrels of oil. Of course how much is extracted per day and how much the government earns depends on several other factors.

Saw the IMF estimate Tanzania government would earn about $2B-$3B per annum from its massive gas finds and quite frankly, I was hugely underwhelmed. And I think 99.99% of Tanzanians dont yet understand this so their astronomical expectations are going to be massively deflated in the near future. $2B wont do much for a country as large and poor as Kenya. You need big revenue Angola or Nigeria style. Tens of billions of dollars per annum.

Would also hope for Kenyan companies to be full or part owners of most if not all oil fields. For instance, state-owned NOCK should be a part owner (even if its minority stake a.l.a Safaricom, KQ and KCB) of all extraction projects. This is the thing the Turkana community under the guidance of their county government should push for. A kind of community trust that is part owner of all oil fields within the county. Even if its just 10%-15%.

Ultimately, we need as much of that revenue remaining in Kenya as possible. Algeria, Angola and Saudi Arabia would not be where they are if they had not nationalised their oil fields (dont advocate such drastic move tho'). That profit would be sitting in Big Oil bank accounts in the West, paid as dividends to Westerners and developing their countries. Despite the massive corruption and cronyism, I like what Angola is doing through Sonangol as opposed to handing over everything no-questions-asked 100% to foreign corporations.


Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
[quote=murchr]Tullow Oil Company on Thursday announced a discovery of oil at the Etom 1 exploration well that it said extended the already proven South Lokichar Basin “significantly northwards”.

Opening tests in neighbouring Kerio Basin would start in September.

“The next basin-opening test will be in the neighbouring Kerio Basin, with the Kodos-1 well expected to spud in early September”.

http://www.businessdaily.../-/v9bwsoz/-/index.html[/quote]

This kind of news does not seem to attract reactions from Kenyans anymore, our famous ADD has checked in yet this additional discoveries (appraisal wells) are the most important as they determine the size of the cake.

For us, we want now, not in 2017 or sijui nini.

Reading Ghana's story, i am just wondering what could be right number of BPD that would really get us going. 500,000?

All my friends are heathens, take it slow. Wait for them to ask you who you know. Please don't make any sudden moves.
Knight-027
#1083 Posted : Friday, August 29, 2014 2:08:57 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/13/2014
Posts: 12
Good analysis. The one thing you have over looked is the benefit you gain by not importing oil/gas in a country. If the product becomes cheaper ( because its available locally) then to some extent the whole economy is benefiting starting from cheaper electricity. I would think that emphasis should be put in the refinery sector where locals will ultimately benefit.
Obi 1 Kanobi
#1084 Posted : Friday, August 29, 2014 3:59:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
Assuming we retain 50% of the proceeds, then for us to attain an annual revenue of Usd 10B, we need to produce approx 600-700 Bpd.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
murchr
#1085 Posted : Friday, August 29, 2014 5:19:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
From

AOIFF report wrote:

– Petroleum System proven with 8 discoveries with over 600 MMBO discovered oil* and upside potential of 1 to 3 billion barrels of oil.

– Development threshold volumes now exceeded and field development / pipeline project
proceeding with full government support.

– Onshore blocks with good contract terms and low development / operating costs provide
robust economics.

- Significant potential remaining in South Lokichar basin with a number of remaining identified prospects and an 80% success rate to date. Numerous secondary and unconventional
targets demonstrated to exist that need to be further evaluated.

– Ten new frontier basins to be evaluated by drilling or seismic in the next 18 months. Each
basin has a similar or greater potential as the Lokichar Basin.

Lokichar Basin Confirmed as major oil province– 11 more basins and 100+ prospects to go


More here: http://www.africaoilcorp...ntation-August-2014.pdf

@innairobi, Natural gas is very cheap
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
wanyee
#1086 Posted : Thursday, September 11, 2014 1:41:42 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
is this independent of the Vanoil's find ?>>>http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/thecounties/article/2000134579/american-firm-strikes-oil-deposits-in-garissa.....
wanyee
#1087 Posted : Thursday, September 11, 2014 1:52:23 PM
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Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
at this rate i will bet that oil will be found in Magadi and Gilgil ..(delamere diin't just settle there fwaaah).
josimar
#1088 Posted : Thursday, September 11, 2014 3:13:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/6/2010
Posts: 242
Quote:
is this independent of the Vanoil's find ?>>>http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/thecounties/article/2000134579/american-firm-strikes-oil-deposits-in-garissa.....


This says just CAMAC started seismic shooting. Not oil discovery.
shocks
#1089 Posted : Wednesday, September 17, 2014 3:14:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2009
Posts: 359
Investor Call

3c resources now upto 1291 bbo and 2c now stands at 616 bbo
Obi 1 Kanobi
#1090 Posted : Wednesday, September 17, 2014 3:34:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
I just saw an article in the business daily talking about setting up an electricity gas plant in Wajir where some 1.8 trillion cubic feet of Natural gas was discovered.

I have to admit I missed this announcement of commercial gas finds in Wajir.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
shocks
#1091 Posted : Wednesday, September 17, 2014 3:52:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2009
Posts: 359
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
I just saw an article in the business daily talking about setting up an electricity gas plant in Wajir where some 1.8 trillion cubic feet of Natural gas was discovered.

I have to admit I missed this announcement of commercial gas finds in Wajir.


this was from sala well, alot of work still has to go in to determine the exact amount of gas as only one well has been drilled there
wanyee
#1092 Posted : Thursday, October 23, 2014 1:32:34 PM
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Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
kizee1
#1093 Posted : Thursday, October 23, 2014 3:15:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
wanyee wrote:
More oil http://www.tullowoil.com...geid=137&newsid=914
fast approaching one Birrion barrels


crossed a billion some time ago
Robinhood
#1094 Posted : Thursday, October 23, 2014 3:49:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/11/2008
Posts: 2,306
kizee1 wrote:
wanyee wrote:
More oil http://www.tullowoil.com...geid=137&newsid=914
fast approaching one Birrion barrels


crossed a billion some time ago


Kweli tupu
Great men are not always wise, neither do the aged understand judgement...
shocks
#1095 Posted : Thursday, October 23, 2014 6:21:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2009
Posts: 359
wanyee wrote:
More oil http://www.tullowoil.com...geid=137&newsid=914
fast approaching one Birrion barrels


and tullow oil loses 4% while africa oil is down 14%. Did they expect better news?
shocks
#1096 Posted : Thursday, October 23, 2014 6:35:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2009
Posts: 359
wanyee wrote:
More oil http://www.tullowoil.com...geid=137&newsid=914
fast approaching one Birrion barrels


and tullow oil loses 4% while africa oil is down 14%. Did they expect better news?
wanyee
#1097 Posted : Thursday, October 23, 2014 10:23:10 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
shocks wrote:
wanyee wrote:
More oil http://www.tullowoil.com...geid=137&newsid=914
fast approaching one Birrion barrels


and tullow oil loses 4% while africa oil is down 14%. Did they expect better news?

Think Think could be jitters due to the shootings in Ottawa...their Bunge- Africa Oil ...and for Tullow typical of any wildcat venture...casino..means they only have one locale Turukana
jwatesh
#1098 Posted : Friday, October 24, 2014 1:21:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/19/2014
Posts: 125
Standard gauge railway has never really moved in terms of construction, what about this oil pipeline. Oil money, vision 2025, when oil prices have gone down by half
murchr
#1099 Posted : Friday, October 24, 2014 2:42:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
jwatesh wrote:
Standard gauge railway has never really moved in terms of construction, what about this oil pipeline. Oil money, vision 2025, when oil prices have gone down by half


That's typical Kenyanese, always missing opportunities because some people have not eaten. In America, once they strike oil, a makeshift pipeline is done mara moja. Right now the US is planning to change the laws that made it impossible to export oil.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#1100 Posted : Monday, November 10, 2014 4:38:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
With oil price in a sharp nosedive some nice discounts are now available on some canadian hydrocarbon stocks for a contrarian play. Once the shakeout is complete I expect the ensuing rally from these discounts to surpass 200% gains!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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