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KenolKobil HY 2014 profit before tax grows X 4
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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mibbz wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:mibbz wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Regardless of all the positivity about this stock, which I believe is valid, the P/E is not low enough to excite me. As a disciplined investor, I will let this one pass purely because of its P/E. @Mutaga III i repect your trading/investing strategy but history has shown that price movement and action does depend not only on technical and fundamental analysis of a company but also 'market sentiment' which can be characterised as many things including emotions,brokers advising clients,gut feelings,insider information on deals,hype,wazua gurus giving the way foward etc.In a country like ours where information assymetry thrives backed with a skkewed principal(buyer) and agent(broker) relationship that ends with brokers advising guys on what to buy, I expect KK to gain leaps and bounds becasue the 'sentiment' is positive. Lastly I always tell guys,there is a lot f money floating around.Its bound to seek shelter somewhere exciting.This is exciting irrespective of fundamentals and its huge debt. Henceforth I am with the bulls on this, but cautiously optimistic at ksh 12.50 to 13 FY 2014. The problem is how to calculate your said factors. One can easily calculate P/E but I dont know how you calculate market sentiment. Calculating human emotion is an exercise in futility. Work with the numbers that you can calculate. Keep it simple. Read Sir Isaac Newton's bad experience with the South Sea Company. “I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men.” Check the image http://www.sovereignman....3/12/20131210-image.jpg
All am saying is some things are not calculated,stock prices are not pure math & excel sheets but also human factors that cannot be quantified.Anyway lines are clearly drawn on this stock,the bulls and the bears have had their say,let's see where it settles by release of end year results and the opportunity cost of ignoring the likes of longhorn,britam etc. Foreign participation at 79% today with price still swinging between 8.10 to 8.40.It could still go either way;it's bound to be another interesting week does that mean demand, supply or net by foreigners There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 3/1/2014 Posts: 82
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mwekez@ji wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:I've placed a bid at 7.90 lets see For a company that is supposed to be giving profits of over 35 million dollars per year, I would never pay even 7.00 for it until it makes serious profits. Until then, I will still steer clear from this one as a disciplined investor When KK starts making those "serious profits", the price will also be "very serious" and we will be on the sell side stocksmaster #1 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 9:36:40 AM Quote Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 368 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield. For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks: 1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices. Management expected profit of USD 35M as per stockmaster's post here. That was in 2011 and the price at that time was 9.30. Today, it trades a 8.80 with a net profit of USD 18M assuming it maintains its HY2014 profit. This means that if the guy was to apply the same strategy today, he would only get in at around 5 bob. Add one shilling, which is 20% higher due to the fact that we are in a bull market. I can only pay Ksh 6 per share for this counter currently and I will consider myself having paid a premium for the share. Picture what happened after the company got the USD 35M and Puma. I say no more. Happy hunting.  Well put! Cost cutting isn't a growth strategy as every company can pull it off. For KK, that's its sole reliance for growth. “The beauty of success is that it doesn’t matter how many times you have failed, you only have to be right once and then everyone can tell you how lucky you are.” - Mark Cuban
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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There is a line drawn between huge buys and small buys here,the huge buyers have believed its worth 8.10 and below,on the other hand small buyers find themselves paying 8.50...until this big buyers change their perception on kk it will take longer to leave 8.10 stage or even find a lower stage since the big orders are pegged even below 8 "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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mlennyma wrote:There is a line drawn between huge buys and small buys here,the huge buyers have believed its worth 8.10 and below,on the other hand small buyers find themselves paying 8.50...until this big buyers change their perception on kk it will take longer to leave 8.10 stage or even find a lower stage since the big orders are pegged even below 8 At least I am on the same side with the smart money. I said I wouldn't pay a dime above 6 bob for this share.  ....I will eagerly wait for it as it comes crashing A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Kastone wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:I've placed a bid at 7.90 lets see For a company that is supposed to be giving profits of over 35 million dollars per year, I would never pay even 7.00 for it until it makes serious profits. Until then, I will still steer clear from this one as a disciplined investor When KK starts making those "serious profits", the price will also be "very serious" and we will be on the sell side stocksmaster #1 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 9:36:40 AM Quote Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 368 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield. For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks: 1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices. Management expected profit of USD 35M as per stockmaster's post here. That was in 2011 and the price at that time was 9.30. Today, it trades a 8.80 with a net profit of USD 18M assuming it maintains its HY2014 profit. This means that if the guy was to apply the same strategy today, he would only get in at around 5 bob. Add one shilling, which is 20% higher due to the fact that we are in a bull market. I can only pay Ksh 6 per share for this counter currently and I will consider myself having paid a premium for the share. Picture what happened after the company got the USD 35M and Puma. I say no more. Happy hunting. Well put! Cost cutting isn't a growth strategy as every company can pull it off. For KK, that's its sole reliance for growth. You have missed the point. KK growth strategy also entails growing its high margin business.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/7/2013 Posts: 127 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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mwekez@ji wrote:Kastone wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:I've placed a bid at 7.90 lets see For a company that is supposed to be giving profits of over 35 million dollars per year, I would never pay even 7.00 for it until it makes serious profits. Until then, I will still steer clear from this one as a disciplined investor When KK starts making those "serious profits", the price will also be "very serious" and we will be on the sell side stocksmaster #1 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 9:36:40 AM Quote Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 368 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield. For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks: 1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices. Management expected profit of USD 35M as per stockmaster's post here. That was in 2011 and the price at that time was 9.30. Today, it trades a 8.80 with a net profit of USD 18M assuming it maintains its HY2014 profit. This means that if the guy was to apply the same strategy today, he would only get in at around 5 bob. Add one shilling, which is 20% higher due to the fact that we are in a bull market. I can only pay Ksh 6 per share for this counter currently and I will consider myself having paid a premium for the share. Picture what happened after the company got the USD 35M and Puma. I say no more. Happy hunting. Well put! Cost cutting isn't a growth strategy as every company can pull it off. For KK, that's its sole reliance for growth. You have missed the point. KK growth strategy also entails growing its high margin business. I agree Chief, @Mwekezaji ...better a company with reduced turnover but with a good/widening bottom (line) ...makes for a good landing  I went into the (Ferry) industry knowing the same thing I knew with all other businesses I went into- Nothing. Then I built it from there. - Sheldon Adelson (Titans at the Table- Giants of Macau)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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share price follows good performance. KK will most certainly be in the double digits in the next 6-12 months. foreigners as high net buyers..... the last time I say these volumes and foreigners as net buyers was just before the puma deal. the storm is brewing, KK will get a good kick up soon for its new normal The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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littledove wrote:mibbz wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:mibbz wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Regardless of all the positivity about this stock, which I believe is valid, the P/E is not low enough to excite me. As a disciplined investor, I will let this one pass purely because of its P/E. @Mutaga III i repect your trading/investing strategy but history has shown that price movement and action does depend not only on technical and fundamental analysis of a company but also 'market sentiment' which can be characterised as many things including emotions,brokers advising clients,gut feelings,insider information on deals,hype,wazua gurus giving the way foward etc.In a country like ours where information assymetry thrives backed with a skkewed principal(buyer) and agent(broker) relationship that ends with brokers advising guys on what to buy, I expect KK to gain leaps and bounds becasue the 'sentiment' is positive. Lastly I always tell guys,there is a lot f money floating around.Its bound to seek shelter somewhere exciting.This is exciting irrespective of fundamentals and its huge debt. Henceforth I am with the bulls on this, but cautiously optimistic at ksh 12.50 to 13 FY 2014. The problem is how to calculate your said factors. One can easily calculate P/E but I dont know how you calculate market sentiment. Calculating human emotion is an exercise in futility. Work with the numbers that you can calculate. Keep it simple. Read Sir Isaac Newton's bad experience with the South Sea Company. “I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men.” Check the image http://www.sovereignman....3/12/20131210-image.jpg
All am saying is some things are not calculated,stock prices are not pure math & excel sheets but also human factors that cannot be quantified.Anyway lines are clearly drawn on this stock,the bulls and the bears have had their say,let's see where it settles by release of end year results and the opportunity cost of ignoring the likes of longhorn,britam etc. Foreign participation at 79% today with price still swinging between 8.10 to 8.40.It could still go either way;it's bound to be another interesting week does that mean demand, supply or net by foreigners Todays net foreign buy. It was hovering at less than 5% last week when the 70 Million shares changed hands.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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Kastone wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Good thing I am not bothered whether it goes to 10 or 7.90 ... though I will sell other shares to buy as many KK as possible if it falls to 7. I expect EPS of 80-100 cents for FY 2014. And potential buyers in 2016. Price I want/expect? 15. I have given up on dreams of 18-22. Pragmatism wins over 'hope' and clouds in the sky.
Segman's hedging play was a disaster. Let's hope Ohana steers the boat to increased & sustainable operating profits. If you play this counter at 8, opportunity cost vs reward, its 15% vs reward of 87% respectively going by your TP. Why the stand off by a shilling then? I have to sell out of other counters that I have 'researched' and I am confident will perform. I need an incentive to sell these & jump into KK. That incentive is the 12.5% discount i.e. 7 vs 8. Overall, I am bullish KK as long as they improve the stations which are rather run down... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:share price follows good performance. KK will most certainly be in the double digits in the next 6-12 months.
foreigners as high net buyers..... the last time I say these volumes and foreigners as net buyers was just before the puma deal. the storm is brewing, KK will get a good kick up soon for its new normal I have been to a few stations recently and they are rundown vs Total or Shell. KK needs to attract the K-Card crowd as well as have brighter & cleaner stations. Good/better margins by deferring maintenance is a no-no. Next AGM, this should be on the agenda of shareholders. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:share price follows good performance. KK will most certainly be in the double digits in the next 6-12 months.
foreigners as high net buyers..... the last time I say these volumes and foreigners as net buyers was just before the puma deal. the storm is brewing, KK will get a good kick up soon for its new normal I have been to a few stations recently and they are rundown vs Total or Shell. KK needs to attract the K-Card crowd as well as have brighter & cleaner stations. Good/better margins by deferring maintenance is a no-no. Next AGM, this should be on the agenda of shareholders. I'm also very worried. they can't ignore core business forever. when they deal with the debts they should get back to business The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/28/2014 Posts: 149 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:share price follows good performance. KK will most certainly be in the double digits in the next 6-12 months.
foreigners as high net buyers..... the last time I say these volumes and foreigners as net buyers was just before the puma deal. the storm is brewing, KK will get a good kick up soon for its new normal I have been to a few stations recently and they are rundown vs Total or Shell. KK needs to attract the K-Card crowd as well as have brighter & cleaner stations. Good/better margins by deferring maintenance is a no-no. Next AGM, this should be on the agenda of shareholders. I'm also very worried. they can't ignore core business forever. when they deal with the debts they should get back to business Who says they intend to ignore core business 'forever'? I think they are focused on one thing right now, and they are doing it right. Do that successfully and then move on to the next thing that is good for business. When you live for others' opinions, you are dead.
- Carlos Slim Helu
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Rank: Hello Joined: 7/16/2014 Posts: 4
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The problem I have with KK is that the current profits are as a result restructuring and therefore cannot be sustained in the long run. They have to focus more on increasing sales in order to sustain good performance.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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mvumilivu wrote:The problem I have with KK is that the current profits are as a result restructuring and therefore cannot be sustained in the long run. They have to focus more on increasing sales in order to sustain good performance. It is MUCH better to run a business with a modest turnover but be very profitable than a huge (& growing) turnover with paltry margins. See KQ or even KK of old. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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mvumilivu wrote:The problem I have with KK is that the current profits are as a result restructuring and therefore cannot be sustained in the long run. They have to focus more on increasing sales in order to sustain good performance. Business Daily  is not a bible of finance. Look at the financials and you realize there is no restructuring gains but efficiency gains which are a permanent feature going forward. Instead of using 520 employees to do the business at thin margins you use 300 staff to do higher margin business. The trade off is at the bottom line. So far the bottom line is growing and will spike once property/assets are sold are debt paid down. The 669m finance cost appears too punitive to the business but is not entirely unexpected.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 3/1/2014 Posts: 82
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:share price follows good performance. KK will most certainly be in the double digits in the next 6-12 months.
foreigners as high net buyers..... the last time I say these volumes and foreigners as net buyers was just before the puma deal. the storm is brewing, KK will get a good kick up soon for its new normal I have been to a few stations recently and they are rundown vs Total or Shell. KK needs to attract the K-Card crowd as well as have brighter & cleaner stations. Good/better margins by deferring maintenance is a no-no. Next AGM, this should be on the agenda of shareholders. I'm also very worried. they can't ignore core business forever. when they deal with the debts they should get back to business My thought exactly. Hope they'll be able to catch up once restructuring is done. “The beauty of success is that it doesn’t matter how many times you have failed, you only have to be right once and then everyone can tell you how lucky you are.” - Mark Cuban
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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this mbus will leave behind so many stranded would be passengers once it takes off.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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“We are growing without making too much noise, quietly increasing our network in countries where returns are clear. We have no plans to acquire companies.” “We want to be a market leader in profitability not in volumes sold,” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-31/kenolkobil-kenya-to-focus-on-existing-business-as-it-pays-debts.htmlthis is very interesting im tempted to load more There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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Interview by Ramah Nyang https://www.youtube.com/...1YfXjxsUa6QXWsfjg#t=916 of David Ohana Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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