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KenolKobil HY 2014 profit before tax grows X 4
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uchumi
#71 Posted : Friday, August 22, 2014 9:47:53 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/16/2006
Posts: 234
Invested heavily on this counter.
“I don’t regret the things I’ve done, I regret the things I didn’t do when I had the chance.”
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Aguytrying
#72 Posted : Friday, August 22, 2014 10:01:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I've placed a bid at 7.90 lets see
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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patrazi
#73 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2014 10:32:22 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 7/18/2012
Posts: 76
I'm happy our bus is slowly accelerating. It is leaving the stage.
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MaichBlack
#74 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2014 11:05:59 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,858
Aguytrying wrote:
I've placed a bid at 7.90 lets see


Why not 2.90? Either way, you'd stand the same chance of having your order fulfilled!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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S.Mutaga III
#75 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2014 11:45:23 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Aguytrying wrote:
I've placed a bid at 7.90 lets see

For a company that is supposed to be giving profits of over 35 million dollars per year, I would never pay even 7.00 for it until it makes serious profits. Until then, I will still steer clear from this one as a disciplined investor
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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mwekez@ji
#76 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2014 1:08:33 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
I've placed a bid at 7.90 lets see

For a company that is supposed to be giving profits of over 35 million dollars per year, I would never pay even 7.00 for it until it makes serious profits. Until then, I will still steer clear from this one as a disciplined investor

When KK starts making those "serious profits", the price will also be "very serious" and we will be on the sell side
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S.Mutaga III
#77 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2014 2:14:43 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
mwekez@ji wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
I've placed a bid at 7.90 lets see

For a company that is supposed to be giving profits of over 35 million dollars per year, I would never pay even 7.00 for it until it makes serious profits. Until then, I will still steer clear from this one as a disciplined investor

When KK starts making those "serious profits", the price will also be "very serious" and we will be on the sell side

stocksmaster
#1 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 9:36:40 AM
Quote
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 368
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE

With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices.

Management expected profit of USD 35M as per stockmaster's post here. That was in 2011 and the price at that time was 9.30. Today, it trades a 8.80 with a net profit of USD 18M assuming it maintains its HY2014 profit. This means that if the guy was to apply the same strategy today, he would only get in at around 5 bob. Add one shilling, which is 20% higher due to the fact that we are in a bull market. I can only pay Ksh 6 per share for this counter currently and I will consider myself having paid a premium for the share.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Kastone
#78 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2014 2:21:07 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 3/1/2014
Posts: 82
VituVingiSana wrote:
Good thing I am not bothered whether it goes to 10 or 7.90 ... though I will sell other shares to buy as many KK as possible if it falls to 7. I expect EPS of 80-100 cents for FY 2014. And potential buyers in 2016. Price I want/expect? 15. I have given up on dreams of 18-22. Pragmatism wins over 'hope' and clouds in the sky.

Segman's hedging play was a disaster. Let's hope Ohana steers the boat to increased & sustainable operating profits.


If you play this counter at 8, opportunity cost vs reward, its 15% vs reward of 87% respectively going by your TP. Why the stand off by a shilling then?
“The beauty of success is that it doesn’t matter how many times you have failed, you only have to be right once and then everyone can tell you how lucky you are.” - Mark Cuban
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mwekez@ji
#79 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2014 2:41:45 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
S.Mutaga III wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
I've placed a bid at 7.90 lets see

For a company that is supposed to be giving profits of over 35 million dollars per year, I would never pay even 7.00 for it until it makes serious profits. Until then, I will still steer clear from this one as a disciplined investor

When KK starts making those "serious profits", the price will also be "very serious" and we will be on the sell side

stocksmaster
#1 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 9:36:40 AM
Quote
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 368
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE

With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices.

Management expected profit of USD 35M as per stockmaster's post here. That was in 2011 and the price at that time was 9.30. Today, it trades a 8.80 with a net profit of USD 18M assuming it maintains its HY2014 profit. This means that if the guy was to apply the same strategy today, he would only get in at around 5 bob. Add one shilling, which is 20% higher due to the fact that we are in a bull market. I can only pay Ksh 6 per share for this counter currently and I will consider myself having paid a premium for the share.

Picture what happened after the company got the USD 35M and Puma. I say no more. Happy hunting.
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mibbz
#80 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2014 2:42:02 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
S.Mutaga III wrote:
mibbz wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Regardless of all the positivity about this stock, which I believe is valid, the P/E is not low enough to excite me. As a disciplined investor, I will let this one pass purely because of its P/E.


@Mutaga III i repect your trading/investing strategy but history has shown that price movement and action does depend not only on technical and fundamental analysis of a company but also 'market sentiment' which can be characterised as many things including emotions,brokers advising clients,gut feelings,insider information on deals,hype,wazua gurus giving the way foward etc.

In a country like ours where information assymetry thrives backed with a skkewed principal(buyer) and agent(broker) relationship that ends with brokers advising guys on what to buy, I expect KK to gain leaps and bounds becasue the 'sentiment' is positive.



Lastly I always tell guys,there is a lot f money floating around.Its bound to seek shelter somewhere exciting.This is exciting irrespective of fundamentals and its huge debt. Henceforth I am with the bulls on this, but cautiously optimistic at ksh 12.50 to 13 FY 2014.

The problem is how to calculate your said factors. One can easily calculate P/E but I dont know how you calculate market sentiment. Calculating human emotion is an exercise in futility. Work with the numbers that you can calculate. Keep it simple. Read Sir Isaac Newton's bad experience with the South Sea Company. “I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men.”
Check the image http://www.sovereignman....3/12/20131210-image.jpg



All am saying is some things are not calculated,stock prices are not pure math & excel sheets but also human factors that cannot be quantified.Anyway lines are clearly drawn on this stock,the bulls and the bears have had their say,let's see where it settles by release of end year results and the opportunity cost of ignoring the likes of longhorn,britam etc.
Foreign participation at 79% today with price still swinging between 8.10 to 8.40.It could still go either way;it's bound to be another interesting week
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