the only thing that would shock me price wise would be if it went below 7.90. the rest of up down behaviour, I'm so used to it. company is turning around while growing profits. I need more shares, whenever I have cash now

The problem is how to calculate your said factors. One can easily calculate P/E but I dont know how you calculate market sentiment. Calculating human emotion is an exercise in futility. Work with the numbers that you can calculate. Keep it simple. Read Sir Isaac Newton's bad experience with the South Sea Company. “I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men.”
Check the image http://www.sovereignman....3/12/20131210-image.jpg

Chief, I thought that shrunk market share was expected since they were on a cost cutting year and din't put so much effort on new products and outlets. However I'm not comfortable with the fact that profit has also been attributed to sale of assets (means a profit warning next year if revenues don't pace up). I still included in my most recent buys though.

I think that is an idiotic journalist paid by someone or the competition. Little wonder I would rather buy mandazi moto with 60 bob rather than buy business daily. Look at the cash flow statement and look at the comparatives and you will notice mutegi is talking out if his ass rather than his brain.

Sale of assets should be backed out. Use just the Operating Income. The good news is that the cash from the sale of assets will reduce debt levels.

And yes, KK said they are getting out of the low margin businesses including Jet Fuel.

Invested heavily on this counter.

I'm happy our bus is slowly accelerating. It is leaving the stage.

For a company that is supposed to be giving profits of over 35 million dollars per year, I would never pay even 7.00 for it until it makes serious profits. Until then, I will still steer clear from this one as a disciplined investor

stocksmaster
#1 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 9:36:40 AM
Quote
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 368
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE

With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices.

Management expected profit of USD 35M as per stockmaster's post here. That was in 2011 and the price at that time was 9.30. Today, it trades a 8.80 with a net profit of USD 18M assuming it maintains its HY2014 profit. This means that if the guy was to apply the same strategy today, he would only get in at around 5 bob. Add one shilling, which is 20% higher due to the fact that we are in a bull market. I can only pay Ksh 6 per share for this counter currently and I will consider myself having paid a premium for the share.

Picture what happened after the company got the USD 35M and Puma. I say no more. Happy hunting.