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Mumias Sugar huge demand
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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hisah wrote:Mainat wrote:In this. For speculative play. Owuru will lose a chunk of votes not to mention our taxpayer money if he doesn't solve this conundrum This basement MSC price range is surreal a decade later...
Today's price levels looked like this back in 2002!?
15/05/2002 - 2.50
15/08/2002 - 2.40
16/09/2002 - 2.40
27/09/2002 - 2.30
02/10/2002 - 2.20
So MSC is trading below GFC panic central price range 3.30 - 4.50 back in 2008 - 2009 period. With MSC prices at the lowest point I too threw caution out the window and grabbed some.
Back in 2002 KE was in a transit election period as KANU era was coming to an end. Guess what? Tourism sentiment was also at the basement -> flagging @aguy.
Grabbed some today at 2.20 between 2.00-3.00 PM. I noted the tech readings have never been like this before.RSI is < 20. On the same note,CFC is breaking below 125 with heavy sell volumes..This one was a big trading mistake..support now at 115.I hate when a share goes down on heavy volumes
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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And today msc bouncing back why...any insider info
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Mainat wrote:In this. For speculative play. Owuru will lose a chunk of votes not to mention our taxpayer money if he doesn't solve this conundrum This basement MSC price range is surreal a decade later...
Today's price levels looked like this back in 2002!?
15/05/2002 - 2.50
15/08/2002 - 2.40
16/09/2002 - 2.40
27/09/2002 - 2.30
02/10/2002 - 2.20
So MSC is trading below GFC panic central price range 3.30 - 4.50 back in 2008 - 2009 period. With MSC prices at the lowest point I too threw caution out the window and grabbed some.
Back in 2002 KE was in a transit election period as KANU era was coming to an end. Guess what? Tourism sentiment was also at the basement -> flagging @aguy.
wow. full circle. tourism sentiment decieves many. I played this from 3.00-3.70. I can through caution to the wind too! for ze nice bounce. damn speculating is so sweet! currently up 15% on NIC rights issue play. @VVS please help me cure this bad bad habit....after this msc play. btw. I'm thinking nse might be a good one to flip. with impending oversubscription, I could buy and sell to wanjiku.(or ill become the wanjiku?( The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,362 Location: Nairobi
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Akenyan2014 wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:From Jan 2014: Are the following scripts still valid? mwekez@ji wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Leo akina papa wamejulikana!  *waves white flag* Let us build some castles in the sky this Furahiday. One time Safcom was similarly out of favor, dancing around similar levels to lower. Fastforward...Smh! Amen!  this is the weird thing with shares. mumias at its optimum potential deserves to trade at 13.00 more than safaricom. and at a fair pe. Dude, you can say that again...Some more tealeaves are that points of inflection can be reached, as in the case of Safcom, and now probably MSC, after the change of guard at the top. CEOs whose mandate is very clear; Shake up & growth initiatives combo. Let's see. Oh yes, we should also look out for the same from Kenol Kobil!! VituVingiSana wrote: Omnicane is starting from Ground Zero. A new factory, hybrid sugarcane, a large nucleus estate and little political baggage. If it were listed as a 'start-up' or even as a GEMS listing, I would be interested. As for Mumias... old(er) equipment, old breeds of cane and reliance on smallholders with political clout. Cde Monomotapa wrote: OK. What percentage of the national deficit will they satisfy? [200K T]. In between time is what we're looking at with MSC. VituVingiSana wrote: Without COMESA safeguards, can Mumias survive? Firms like Butali & West Kenya are more efficient than Mumias. Cde Monomotapa wrote: Well, the proceedings here (on playing MSC) have been very clear. Barrier 1. Cane supply - done. 2. COMESA extension 3. Improving competitiveness. In that order. @VVS, TO what extent is possible/impossible to turn around MSC? This requires a TOTAL overhaul of the sugar industry in Nyanza/Western. Tell the farmers they plant hybrid cane and accept lower prices so as to compete vs Uganda & Sudan. Politically, very difficult. Sell/merge Nzoia with Mumias for the nucleus estate. Scrap the outdated equipment/plant. Can it be turned around? Yes. Is there political will today? No. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,362 Location: Nairobi
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urstill1 wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:From Jan 2014: Are the following scripts still valid? mwekez@ji wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Leo akina papa wamejulikana! *waves white flag* Let us build some castles in the sky this Furahiday. One time Safcom was similarly out of favor, dancing around similar levels to lower. Fastforward...Smh! Amen! this is the weird thing with shares. mumias at its optimum potential deserves to trade at 13.00 more than safaricom. and at a fair pe. Dude, you can say that again...Some more tealeaves are that points of inflection can be reached, as in the case of Safcom, and now probably MSC, after the change of guard at the top. CEOs whose mandate is very clear; Shake up & growth initiatives combo. Let's see. Oh yes, we should also look out for the same from Kenol Kobil!! VituVingiSana wrote: Omnicane is starting from Ground Zero. A new factory, hybrid sugarcane, a large nucleus estate and little political baggage. If it were listed as a 'start-up' or even as a GEMS listing, I would be interested. As for Mumias... old(er) equipment, old breeds of cane and reliance on smallholders with political clout. Cde Monomotapa wrote: OK. What percentage of the national deficit will they satisfy? [200K T]. In between time is what we're looking at with MSC. VituVingiSana wrote: Without COMESA safeguards, can Mumias survive? Firms like Butali & West Kenya are more efficient than Mumias. Cde Monomotapa wrote: Well, the proceedings here (on playing MSC) have been very clear. Barrier 1. Cane supply - done. 2. COMESA extension 3. Improving competitiveness. In that order. Do you also realize that Omnicane has reported losses in their last half year results of $7.7m?. Do you believe that they'll thrive in this market? See hereMore details Omnicane is a shareholder in KUSCOL which is majority owned by the Pabari Family. Omnicane is a 'Strategic Investor' who will provide technical support. KUSCOL has a captive market in Kenya. As long it can produce sugar at a CIF price for imports [landed cost], it will be OK. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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Meanwhile at 2.40, Sukari is now at index 1
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/28/2014 Posts: 149 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:@DBLyon - MSC is a counter with history (market component for more than a decade) while HAFR is a new kid on block with lofty dream (assets). I don't buy dreams. Understood. ION, I hear Migaa is expected to turn around, they have changed their model, which they realised wasn't working. We wait and see. When you live for others' opinions, you are dead.
- Carlos Slim Helu
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Rank: User Joined: 9/6/2013 Posts: 1,446 Location: In a house
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VituVingiSana wrote:urstill1 wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:From Jan 2014: Are the following scripts still valid? mwekez@ji wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Leo akina papa wamejulikana! *waves white flag* Let us build some castles in the sky this Furahiday. One time Safcom was similarly out of favor, dancing around similar levels to lower. Fastforward...Smh! Amen! this is the weird thing with shares. mumias at its optimum potential deserves to trade at 13.00 more than safaricom. and at a fair pe. Dude, you can say that again...Some more tealeaves are that points of inflection can be reached, as in the case of Safcom, and now probably MSC, after the change of guard at the top. CEOs whose mandate is very clear; Shake up & growth initiatives combo. Let's see. Oh yes, we should also look out for the same from Kenol Kobil!! VituVingiSana wrote: Omnicane is starting from Ground Zero. A new factory, hybrid sugarcane, a large nucleus estate and little political baggage. If it were listed as a 'start-up' or even as a GEMS listing, I would be interested. As for Mumias... old(er) equipment, old breeds of cane and reliance on smallholders with political clout. Cde Monomotapa wrote: OK. What percentage of the national deficit will they satisfy? [200K T]. In between time is what we're looking at with MSC. VituVingiSana wrote: Without COMESA safeguards, can Mumias survive? Firms like Butali & West Kenya are more efficient than Mumias. Cde Monomotapa wrote: Well, the proceedings here (on playing MSC) have been very clear. Barrier 1. Cane supply - done. 2. COMESA extension 3. Improving competitiveness. In that order. Do you also realize that Omnicane has reported losses in their last half year results of $7.7m?. Do you believe that they'll thrive in this market? See hereMore details Omnicane is a shareholder in KUSCOL which is majority owned by the Pabari Family. Omnicane is a 'Strategic Investor' who will provide technical support. KUSCOL has a captive market in Kenya. As long it can produce sugar at a CIF price for imports [landed cost], it will be OK. Thank you.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,362 Location: Nairobi
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@urstill1 - If KUSCOL was listed and trading at an independently calculated NAV... I would buy as many as I could. I have a feeling it is going to very profitable as the other "GoK" sugar firms collapse. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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VituVingiSana wrote:@urstill1 - If KUSCOL was listed and trading at an independently calculated NAV... I would buy as many as I could. I have a feeling it is going to very profitable as the other "GoK" sugar firms collapse. Special Delivery@murchr was also wondering whether the new Director of Immigration would provide solutions at the borders in regards to sugar too?
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